California Water Management Subject to Change

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California Water Management Subject to Change
John T. Andrew
Climate Adaptation for Water Managers
February 5, 2008
Biosphere II, Arizona
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Todays Topics

• California water management
• Historical evidence of climate change
• Projected impacts to water resources from
  climate change
• Responding to climate change

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California Water Background

• Population
• 2005 36 million
• 2030 48 million
• Irrigated Acreage 9.5 million
• About 2/3 of the States surface water runoff
  occurs north of Sacramento
• About 2/3 of the States water needs occur south
  of Sacramento

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Average Annual Runoff (70.8 MAF)
Californias Major River Systems
Sacramento
River
San Joaquin River
n
N
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Statewide Water Management Systems
Year 2000 data. Does not include re-use.
Quantities vary by year.
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Climate Change Impacts on Californias Water
Resources

• Reduced snowpack, impacting water supply and
  hydropower
• Earlier snowmelt results in increased flood
  control demand on reservoir space
• Higher water temperatures impact ecosystem
• Sea level rise impacts the Delta, threatens
  levees and increases salinity
• Increased demand in all sectors

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Watersheds
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Changes in Runoff Timing
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Changes in Peak Flows American River
Red Line Construction of Folsom Dam
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Snowpack and Runoff
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Expected Storage Capacity Impacts from Changes in
Runoff
13.5 MAF Reservoir Storage
15 MAF Snow Pack Storage
11 MAF Reservoir Storage
A moderate 3oC increase in temperature is
projected to result in an increase in snow
elevation of 1500 feet and a 4 to 5 MAF decrease
in Sierra snow pack
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Sea Level Rise
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Sea Level Rise
Source Roos 2003
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Sea Level Rise
2 ft.
Projections
1 ft.
Source IPCC, 2001
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Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
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Implications of Sea Level Rise in the Delta

• Salinity intrusion degrades water quality,
  requires additional releases
• Habitat changes, losses
• Levee failure
• Inundation
• Interruption of water supplies

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                         EXECUTIVE ORDER S-3-05
June 1, 2005

• Recognizes global climate change and its impacts
  on California.
• Establishes aggressive greenhouse gas emission
  reduction targets for the State.
• Requires biennial assessments of climate change
  impacts and the development of impact
  mitigation/adaptation plans.
• Requires the formation of an interagency team to
  implement the Governors Order.

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Assembly Bill 32

• Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006
• Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 (30
  reduction)
• Applies to Kyoto pollutants
• CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6
• Detailed action schedule

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CA Emission Reduction Targets
AB 32
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Water, Energy and Climate Change
Future water management activities must
carefully consider strategies to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions
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OShaughnessy Dam
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Common Energy-Water Tradeoffs
Seawater desalting
Wastewater reuse
More
Water treatment
Conjunctive use
Pumping
Wastewater treatment
Drip irrigation-SW
Large dam removal
Energy Use
Fish screens
0
Water conservation
Shade trees
Hot water conservation
Evaporative cooling
Crop yield improvements
Less
Reforestation
Biofuels Production?
Solar generation agriculture substitution?
Shale oil Production?
0
More
Less
Water Use or Environmental Impact
Jay Lund, UCD
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New IPCC Findings

• Confirms impacts we are already witnessing
• Emphasizes the importance of adaptation
• Impacts dependent upon both climate change and
  adaptive capacity
• Recommends a portfolio approach

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Framework for Action
Sustainable Reliable Water in 2030
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Resource Management Strategies

• Reduce Water Demand
• Agricultural Water Use Efficiency
• Urban Water Use Efficiency
• Improve Operational Efficiency Transfers
• Conveyance
• System Reoperation
• Water Transfers
• Increase Water Supply
• Conjunctive Management Groundwater Storage
• Desalination Brackish Seawater
• Precipitation Enhancement
• Recycled Municipal Water
• Surface Storage CALFED
• Surface Storage - Regional/Local

• Improve Water Quality
• Drinking Water Treatment and Distribution
• Groundwater/Aquifer Remediation
• Matching Quality to Use
• Pollution Prevention
• Urban Runoff Management
• Practice Resource Stewardship
• Agricultural Lands Stewardship
• Economic Incentives (Loans, Grants, and Water
  Pricing)
• Ecosystem Restoration
• Floodplain Management
• Recharge Areas Protection
• Urban Land Use Management
• Water-Dependent Recreation
• Watershed Management

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California Water Management and Climate Change

• Climate change is real.
• Climate change presents significant challenges
  for the management of Californias water
  resources.
• Climate change is occurring incrementally and
  will likely continue to do so based on historical
  records over the past 100 years and most
  projections.
• Californias water management systems already
  provide some degree of operational flexibility.
• We should have time to plan for future climate
  change and adapt to it.

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John T. Andrew, P.E. Executive Manager for
Climate Change Department of Water
Resources [phone] jandrew_at_water.ca.gov
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Bonus Features

• GHG emissions
• Hydrology
• Climate changeeffects
• Progress report
• IRWM
• Delta
• Strategic Growth Plan
• Background
• Population
• Main Menu

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Changes in Runoff Timing

From DWR-DFM
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Changes in Runoff Timing
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Changes in Peak Flows Feather River
Red Line Construction of Oroville Dam
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Changes in Peak Flows San Joaquin River
Red Line Construction of Friant Dam
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Potential Effects of Climate Change
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Figure 2-4 Trend in Global Average Temperature
from 1860 to 2000 Explanation The figure depicts
global average combined land-surface air and sea
surface temperatures from 1861 to 1998 relative
to the average temperature between 1961 and 1990.
The left vertical scale is in degrees Celsius.
Source United Nations Environment Programme
Global Resource Information Database - Arendal
website at http//www.grida.no/climate/vital/17.h
tm.
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• Figure 2-6 Range of Projections Reported by the
  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for
  Increasing Global Average Surface Temperature
  Through 2100.
• Source United States Environmental Protection
  Agency website at http//yosemite.epa.gov/oar/glo
  balwarming.nsf/content/ClimateFutureClimateGlobalT
  emperature.html

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Figure 2-7 Worldwide Precipitation Trend for 1900
to 2000 Source (IPCC, 2001b) http//www.grida.no/
climate/ipcc_tar/vol4/english/fig2-6a.htm
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California Precipitation Trend
Linear regression showing historical trend
116 year average 23.88 inches
Driest 30 years 1908-1937 21.28 inches
Wettest 30 years 1977-2006 24.88 inches
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Changes in the Amount of Precipitation

• Projections

From Dettinger, 2005
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                         DWR Technical
Memorandum Report
July, 2006
Francis Chung Jamie Anderson Mike Anderson Levi
Brekke (USBR) Dan Easton Messele Ejeta Michael
Floyd Guido Franco (CEC) Alan Olson Morteza
Orang Michael Perrone Roy Peterson Maury
Roos Richard Snyder (UCD) David Todd Russell
Yaworsky (USBR) Hongbing Yin
www.baydeltaoffice.water.ca.gov/climatechange.cfm

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Impacts Assessment

• Precipitation Air Temp. Projections (2050)
• 2 GHG emissions scenarios x 2 GCM models

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2050 Change in Reservoir Inflows Dec-FebWinter
Runoff
Shasta
Oroville
Folsom
New Don Pedro
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2050 Change in Reservoir Inflows
April-JulySpring Runoff
Shasta
Oroville
Folsom
New Don Pedro
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Integrated Regional Water Management
A cornerstone of the California Water Plan
Updated every 5 years
Available at www.water.ca.gov
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Integrated Regional Water Management

• Watershed Management
• Reduced Siltation
• Water Quality
• Habitat
• Dam Rehabilitation
• Flood Protection
• Water Supply
• Fish Passage
• Land Use Planning
• Protect GroundwaterRecharge Areas
• Recharge Basins
• Water Supply Quality
• Pumping Lifts
• Water Conservation
• Reduced demand

Land UsePlanning
Watershed Management
DamRehabilitation
GroundwaterRecharge Basins
WaterConservation
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What Could Happen to Bay-Delta Estuary?
Sacramento
Sacramento River
Stockton
San Joaquin River
San Francisco
The Hinge Pin for much of Californias
....water supply...
Bay-Delta detail image from CALFED
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Projected Sea Level Rise
The Delta today.
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Projected Sea Level Rise
Areas most at risk in the Delta with 1-foot sea
level rise.
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Strategic Growth Plan
Governor Schwarzenegger has made new investments
in water management and flood protection
Prop. 1E and 84 provide 4.9 billion for flood
management and 1 billion for integrated regional
water management including wastewater recycling,
groundwater storage and conservation
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Projected Sea Level Rise
Areas most at risk in the Delta with 2-foot sea
level rise.
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Distribution of Average Annual Runoff
Precipitation and Runoff
in California
Distribution of Average Annual Precipitation -
1961 to 1990
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Californias Major Water Projects
L E G E N D
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Climate change is not the only uncertainty
Historical Data
Californias Population
Projection
?
?
?
?
?
?
Source California Department of Finance, 2005.
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Range of Snowpack ReductionsProjected by 2050