Youth crime in Nottingham

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Youth crime in Nottingham is it falling? And
why? Professor Mike Hough Kings College
London
2
What I plan to do

• Summarise a project done last year
• For Nottingham City YOS
• A sort of inverted evaluation
• Not Was x successful?
• But What have we done to be successful?
• An interesting but difficult assignment
• Some general lessons

3
Crime trends in Nottingham

• Recorded crime fell 2004 - 2008
• By nearly a quarter 16,500 offences
• Including youth offences
• National trends
• Recorded crime down 12
• BCS down 7
• No change in youth crime
• Somethings happened in Notts

4
Demographics?

• Total Notts population up 5 03-07
• But youth population down 9 03-07
• We dont know why
• But other things being equal.
• Should result in 9 less youth crime

5
Policing?

• Pressure to meet central targets
• Offenders brought to justice
• Increased stop search
• New detection plan in 2005
• Detection rates up 13 04-08
• Neighbourhood policing in 2005
• Community focus
• Visibility policing
• Revamped Drugs Crime Partnership

6
Youth Justice?

• Outcomes fell by 26 03-08
• Pre-court outcomes fell 16 03-08
• Surge in reprimands in 05 then a big fall
• (Low hanging fruit)
• Court outcomes dropped 33 03-08
• 49 fall in first tier disposals
• 62 fall in FTE into court process
• Something blocking progression into YJS?
• CPS statutory charging?
• Prevention/diversion?

7
Youth Crime Prevention?

• Clear philosophy
• Causes, not symptoms
• Big investment in early prevention
• And in YIPs targetting early/mid-teens
• Mainstreaming of youth crime prevention
• YOS brigaded with youth services
• Integrated with DrugsCrime Partnership
• Independent Chair helped partnership

8
Drawing together the threads

• Multiple causation no clear answers
• Rapidly changing environment
• The synergy of effective partnership?
• Policing reforms
• Youth Justice work
• Early prevention
• Helped along by extraneous factors
• The crucial role of theories.
• .in an uncertain world

9

Youth crime in Nottingham Is it falling? very
probably And why?....... Professor Mike
Hough Kings College London