Analysis of the last Slovak elections

1
Analysis of the last Slovak elections

• Emine Gyulestan
• Evgeniya Pugacheva
• Dobrodana Popova

2

• Imagine you're the leader of a country where
  economic growth is running at 6.3, your
  government has been praised by the World Bank as
  the best market reformer in the world,
  unemployment has fallen to a record low of 10.6
  from around 20 in just four years and your flat
  19 corporate, value added and income tax rate
  led Steve Forbes to call your country an
  "investors' paradise." Imagine, also, that your
  country has seen foreign investment sky-rocket to
  the point at which it will shortly become the
  world's biggest per capita car maker, and where
  your people's feelings about their sense of
  national worth have gone from shame to something
  approaching pride. Oh, and as icing on the cake,
  imagine too that you got your country into the
  European Union and NATO.
• With this record in mind, now consider that
  you face parliamentary elections at which
  you risk annihilation by a leftist opposition
  party with no experience of government and a
  policy agenda filled with populist rhetoric.
• 
  
  
  
• Robin Shepherd, The Dzurinda Revolution,
  Wall Street Journal Europe, June 12, 2006

3
Background conditions

• 2002 elections - four-party centre-right
  government led by Mikulá Dzurinda (SDKÚ-DSKDH
  ANO SMK)
• Accomplishments of the 2002-2006 period
• Failures of the 2002-2006 period
• Crisis within the coalition
• Call for early elections
• Major changes in the electoral system

4
Socio-political climate

• Is Slovakia moving in a right or wrong direction?

Source FOCUS IVO, 1998 2006 (Grigorij
Mesenikov)
5
The Most Pressing Problems of Society
Source IVO, April 2006 (Grigorij Mesenikov)
6
Which Type of Economy Would You Prefer?
Source IVO, April 2006 (Grigorij Mesenikov)
7
Parties Left and Right

• Smer-SD
• (Direction - Social Democracy)
• Center-left
• Led by Robert Fico
• Won the 2006 elections

• SDKÚ-DS
• (Slovak Democratic and Christian Union
  Democratic Party)
• Center-right
• Led by Mikulá Dzurinda
• Won the 2002 elections

8
Leaders

• Smer-SD

• SDKÚ-DS

Robert Fico
Mikulá Dzurinda
9
Position on Economic Reforms

• Smer-SD
• Reforms introduced by the previous government
  were too harsh. They benefited only small percent
  of population. We are for greater social equality
  and justice.
• Therefore, we will change some of the policies
  that have widened the gap between rich and poor.
• We will introduce higher social benefits.

• SDKÚ-DS
• Reforms were successful and we should continue
  with them.
• In previous period we managed to decrease
  unemployment.
• We will increase protection of low-income
  families.
• We will support business.
• We will decrease flat tax rate by 1 every year
  to reach 15 by 2010.
• By this time we will also reach a balanced
  budget.
• Overall, we should catch up with developed EU
  countries.

10
Position on Relations with the EU and NATO

• Smer-SD
• We will pull Slovak troops from Iraq. This is of
  highest priority. However, we will continue to
  help rebuild Iraq by other means.
• Introduction of Euro can strike us very hard. But
  we promise Brussels to stick to the schedule.

• SDKÚ-DS
• Slovakia should be trustful and reliable. We
  should fulfill all our obligations to the EU and
  NATO.
• We will strongly pursue introduction of Euro.
• We will implement all necessary measures for
  avoiding risks that accompany the introduction of
  common European currency, e.g. artificial price
  increasing.
• We will take responsible position towards global
  threats and will fight against international
  terrorism.

11
Position on Minorities

• Smer-SD
• We do not have any problems with minorities.
• We will support regional development.
• After winning elections, Smer-SD will form a
  coalition with Slovak Nationalist Party that does
  have problems with minorities.

• SDKÚ-DS
• We believe in tolerance to people of different
  nationalities and cultures.
• We will work to achieve equality of chances for
  regions by establishing the conditions for faster
  economic growth.

12
Results

• Smer-SD - 29.14
• 50 seats out of 150
• SDKÚ-DS - 18.35
• 31 seats out of 150
• SNS - 11.73
• 20 seats out of 150
• SMK - 11.68
• 20 seats out of 150
• LS-HZDS - 8.79
• 15 seats out of 150
• KDH - 8.31
• 14 seats out of 150
• 21
  party participated in the elections

Source IVO, April 2006 (Grigorij Mesenikov)
13
Winning parties by regions
Source Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic
(Grigorij Mesenikov)
14

• Voter turnout
• Why did SMER win?

Source IVO, April 2006 (Grigorij Mesenikov)
15
Voting patternsEducation and Age
Source IVO, April 2006 (Grigorij Mesenikov)
16
Results

• Smer-SD - 29.14
• 50 seats out of 150
• SDKÚ-DS - 18.35
• 31 seats out of 150
• SNS - 11.73
• 20 seats out of 150
• SMK - 11.68
• 20 seats out of 150
• LS-HZDS - 8.79
• 15 seats out of 150
• KDH - 8.31
• 14 seats out of 150
• 21
  party participated in the elections

Source IVO, April 2006 (Grigorij Mesenikov)
17
Coalition Strange PartnersSmer-SD SNS LS
HZDS 85 seats

• SNS
• (Slovak Nationalist Party)
• Extreme-right
• Led by Ján Slota

• LS HZDS
• (People's Party - Movement for a Democratic
  Slovakia)
• Center-left one-man party
• Led by Vladimir Meciar

18
Problems with the SNS

• The SNSs leader Slota tends to make very
  controversial statements concerning Hungarian
  minority in Slovakia
• "Slavic blood civilized the ugly, Mongolic
  Hungarians.
• "We will sit in our tanks and destroy Budapest.
• Hungarian minority is "a cancer in the body of
  the Slovak nation.
• For creating a coalition with the SNS Smer-SDs
  membership in PES (Party of European Socialists
  in the EP) was suspended.

19
Conclusion

• Those people who benefited from the reforms
  supported center-right parties. Those who lost
  were inclined to support left and nationalist
  parties.
• Although Smer won, center-right parties continue
  to enjoy substantial public support.
• Since the coalition is comprised of such
  different partners, it already had some crisis
  situations.

20
References(accessed April 08, 2008)

• Zachary Wieluns, "Slovakia's new rulers, strange
  bedfellows," ISN Security Watch, October 6, 2006
  http//www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID1675
  9
• "Slovakia starts tough coalition talks," ISN
  Security Watch, June 10, 2006 http//www.isn.ethz
  .ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID16225
• "SDKÚ-DS Election Program for Parliamentary
  Election 2006," Slovak Democratic and Christian
  Union - Democratic Party, n. d.
  http//www.sdkuonline.sk/download/Volebny_program_
  2006_en.doc
• Grigorij Mesenikov, "Assessing Slovakias 2006
  Parliamentary Elections Domestic and Regional
  Implications," International Forum for Democratic
  Studies, June 28, 2006 http//www.la.wayne.edu/po
  lisci/kdk/pozorblog/files/meseznikov_presentation_
  zs_very_final.ppt
• Robin Shepherd, "The Dzurinda Revolution," The
  Wall Street Journal Europe, June 12, 2006
  http//www.gmfus.org/publications/article.cfm?id1
  91
• "Europe's best kept secret...," Civic Initiative
  "Justice", n.d. http//www.spravedlivostbg.org/Do
  cuments.aspx?cat4doc160
• Marek Rybár, "The parliamentary election in
  Slovakia, June 2006," Electoral Studies 26, no.3
  699-703, September 2006 http//www.sciencedirect.
  com/science?_obArticleURL_udiB6V9P-4P77FYS-1_u
  ser3809081_rdoc1_fmt_origsearch_sortdvie
  wc_acctC000061435_version1_urlVersion0_use
  rid3809081md55926c6b8044fad7dca0ca0752859b27b
• "Election Profile," IFES Election Guide, n. d.
  http//www.electionguide.org/election.php?ID1038

21
References(accessed April 08, 2008)

• Robin Sheeran, "News from slovakia Another
  cabinet crisis," Central Europe Review, May 25,
  2001 http//www.ce-review.org/01/19/slovakianews1
  9.html
• "Slovakia Election Update Parties and Polls,"
  Pozorblog, March 16, 2006 http//www.pozorblog.co
  m/?p5
• Edward Lucas, "Slovak elections," Edward Lucas
  The New Cold War, June 1, 2006
  http//edwardlucas.blogspot.com/2006/06/slovak-ele
  ctions.html
• Zora Bútorová, Olga Gyárfáová, Vladimír Krivý,
  Marián Velic, "Slovakia before elections 2006 -
  citizens' views," Institute for Public Affairs
  (IVO), April 25, 2004 http//www.ivo.sk/buxus/doc
  s//vyskum/subor/Slovakia_before_the_2006_election.
  pdf
• "Slovak election puts left ahead," BBC News, June
  18, 2006 http//news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/508965
  6.stm
• Jan Repa, "Slovakia election to test reforms,"
  BBC News, June 15, 2006 http//news.bbc.co.uk/2/h
  i/europe/5084086.stm
• "Country profile Slovakia," BBC News, Macrh 5,
  2008 http//news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/country_pr
  ofiles/1108491.stm
• "Slovak parliamentary election, 2006," Wikipedia,
  the free encyclopedia, March 13, 2008
  http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovak_parliamentary_
  election,_2006
• Vladimír Pcolinský, Antónia tensová, "Slovak
  Parliamentary Elections 2006," Central European
  Political Studies Review, Spring-Summer 2007
  http//www.cepsr.com/clanek.php?ID300
• "Ján Slota," Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia,
  March 28, 2008 http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JC3
  A1n_Slota