Technology Foresight

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Technology Foresight Organising Foresight
Exercise Evaluation
Week 6
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What we have covered so far?
What is technology foresight A brief history of
technology foresight The differences between
forecasting and foresight Organisational
characteristics Specific functions/rationale of
foresight and its associated outcome Levels of
technology foresight Methods of technology
foresight
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THE PROCESS How to
organise a technology foresight exercise
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Group assignment
Imagine, I have been appointed by the Vice
Chancellor to design a future innovation strategy
for the university, so I need sufficient advice
for this task. So I have appointed you as
advisors and I would like your help in developing
several guidelines on the most promising future
product areas for our researchers. I want you to
do provide this advise based on a systematic
procedure i.e. through a mini technology
foresight process and not random advise!
Conduct a mini technology foresight exercise
for Universities Malaya by identifying promising
future product areas based on a particular
generic technology (e.g. advanced material,
nanotechnology, biotechnology, energy technology,
information technology and so forth)
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Group assignment
The assignment basically will be divided into two
parts (1) Part I Planning of the mini
technology foresight exercise (2) Part II
Conducting the mini technology foresight exercise
See Performa!!
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(No Transcript)
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Group list

• Group 1
• Mohamad Hafizzie bin Abd. Karim
• Samantha Sia Sing Yee
• Bong Yan Ling
• Nur Ezurin binti Mustafa
• Ewe Guat Bee
• Hor Siaow Fong
• Illie Farhana binti Baharom
• Nik Mohd Sharil Izwan bin Che Mat Zaidin

• Group 2
• Jamilah binti Jusoh
• Lee Li Ping
• Lee Siew Yee
• Lili Fariza binti Ariffin
• Lue Jun Yin
• Mohamed Syahrir bin Zabidi
• Mohd Nassruddin bin Kachi Maiden
• Afiza binti Akashah John

• Group 3
• Kum Heng Yue
• Mohd Saifuddin bin Bachok
• Mohd Yazid bin Salikan
• Nuur Afifah binti Ramdan
• Norliana binti Mohamad Shani
• Chua Pauline
• Nur Zuriany binti Zaki
• Chong Hui Ching

• Group 4
• Nursyakirin binti Mohd Nasir
• Amirah binti Saidin
• Tan Poh Nyee
• Tee Sia Moi
• Vernice Ong Chien Ying
• Wan Fateh binti Wan Ibrahim
• Wong Shoo-Rou
• Yap Chai Ling
• Muhammad Fahmi bin Ismail

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Group list

• Group 3
• Kum Heng Yue
• Mohd Saifuddin bin Bachok
• Mohd Yazid bin Salikan
• Nuur Afifah binti Ramdan
• Norliana binti Mohamad Shani
• Chua Pauline
• Nur Zuriany binti Zaki
• Chong Hui Ching

• Group 4
• Nursyakirin binti Mohd Nasir
• Amirah binti Saidin
• Tan Poh Nyee
• Tee Sia Moi
• Vernice Ong Chien Ying
• Wan Fateh binti Wan Ibrahim
• Wong Shoo-Rou
• Yap Chai Ling
• Muhammad Fahmi bin Ismail

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• Provide me
• the name of your group
• the name of your group leader
• the package of each member of the group

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THE PROCESS
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THE PROCESS (1) The starting point
The starting point for TF tend to be largely
determined from the outset by the institutional
setting of any given exercise. In the real world,
such exercises are typically located in science
ministries or academies of science, international
organizations, non-governmental organizations,
professional associations, industrial
associations and various others. So, all
institutions are defined by the levels of
governance at which they operate and this then
put you in a certain position in the TF process,
and it will determine how you could organize your
technology foresight exercise.
MIGHT
UNIDO
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THE PROCESS (2) Functions and Desired outcome
What are the outcome for conducting the foresight
exercise? These will be dependent upon the
organizations (especially the sponsors) and
communities involved. This then relates to the
function/outcome of the technology foresight
exercise (which we have discussed in Lecture 3).
Can you remember them? In the assignment who
is your community? What function/outcome is the
community interested in? Specific objective
for technology foresight usually involve a sense
of social or political crisis, or the
anticipation that some events are undermining
established trends, often giving rise to demands
for foresight. It can be helpful to interpret the
situation in terms of challenges that should set
the orientation of the foresight. But there
should be a level of shared agreement as to the
nature of these challenges established at an
early stage in the foresight activity
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Task 1 Within the instructed function and
outcome, find and agree on a set of future
social, economic or environmental challenge(s)
that that you would like focus on when justifying
your technology foresight exercise
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THE PROCESS (3) Coverage
It must be recognized from the outset that it is
impractical to set out to cover all possible
themes and/or sectors in any given TF exercise.
This means that some sort of selection is
inevitable and this is usually conducted based on
a particular technology group. A review of
national TF exercises conducted in the last
decade for instance has shown a commonality in
the areas covered in this sense - with ICTs,
transport technology, biotechnology (primarily
applied to healthcare and agriculture),
nanotechnology, and energy technology featuring
in almost all such exercises. Yet how such
selection has been made in existing foresight
activities is rarely made explicit. Methods
ranging from recycling existing strategic
priorities to undertaking SWOT analyses have
played an important part. Even fads and fashions
probably play a role here Lobbying by interest
groups is another influence. So there could be so
many reasons.
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Task 2 Agree amongst your team members which
field of technology is the best selection for
your group. Specify the reason why this selection
has been made (particularly in relations to the
challenges you identified before). Also describe
the technology Hint Your group members may
have different scientific background, different
motivations, different opinions I want you to
deliberate these different perspective when
making your selection
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THE PROCESS (4) Resources

• Be aware on what resources you have and how
  you should design your technology foresight
  exercise in the light of these resources
• Financial Resources The cost of a technology
  foresight exercise depends primarily upon the
  nature and the scale of involvement of the
  participants, duration and the methods you use.
  Specifically, the cost usually could involve the
  following area the running of the team the
  organization of meetings and events, travels and
  subsistence for at least some of the participant
  the production and dissemination of publicity
  materials the operation of consultation
  processes etc
• Time This is nearly always a resource in short
  supply in technology foresight. Whether a public
  or private sector exercise, the result of
  foresight usually required by particular date to
  feed into policy and/or investment decisions.
  Typically, a national TF exercise takes one to
  two years to complete, depending upon financial
  resources and political imperatives. Clearly the
  available time for exercise will have major
  implication in how the TF exercise can be
  organised.

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THE PROCESS (4) Resources
(c) Political support Without the support of
those in authority, a TF exercise is unlikely to
get off the ground, let alone make a difference.
It is therefore essential that foresight receives
political commitment throughout the lifetime of
an exercise and importantly is seen to receive
such a commitment. Political commitment can be
demonstrated in a number of ways, for example,
through institutionally locating an exercise at
the heart of power. More modestly, it can also be
helpful if someone in position of authority opens
and attends workshops or conferences (d) Human
resources TF requires domain expertise in the
areas under consideration, as well as expertise
in using the foresight method. Dealing with the
latter first, in almost every country, some
expertise in using foresight methods are present.
Much of this expertise can be found in state
planning departments and universities. While for
the former, TF should be informed by the best
available experts. In some countries, regions or
companies, this may mean looking outside for such
experts. But if such experts is not available,
then the focus of TF should be reviewed.
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THE PROCESS (4) Resources
(e) Infrastructural resources these refer to the
existing institutional landscape around a given
area, such as research councils, academies of
science, universities, science ministries,
professional associations, industry federations,
consumer groups, banks, etc. Hence, In virtually
all countries, there will be an institutional
thickness in some areas but less in others. In
a general way, the implications of such
thickness are unpredictable. For instance, a
rich institutional landscape can greatly smooth
the way for foresight, providing useful data
inputs, knowledgeable participants, and forums
for dissemination and implementation of
foresights findings. But institutional
thickness can also act as a barrier to
foresightinstitutional rivalry is not uncommon
whilst institutional worldviews may be rather
static and difficult to openly question.
Moreover, an exercise is far more likely to be
subject to intensive lobbying by well-organized
groups of interests. Appropriate strategies for
dealing with such opportunities and threats will
have to be informed by a deep understanding of
those areas to be covered by the foresight
exercise. The foresight exercise should then be
designed in such a wayas to be responsive to
different institutional landscapes.
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THE PROCESS (4) Resources
(f) Cultural resources these refer to a rather
ill-defined and broad set of conditions that are
likely to have an important impact on the conduct
of TF. They include the propensity to take risks,
the extent and degree of collaboration between
industry and academia (as well as between
competitors), and the extent to which actors
already understand and position themselves
vis-à-vis the long-term. It would seem that some
countries and some industrial sectors are endowed
with more favourable cultural resources than
others. The same may also be said about some
areas of science and technology. Again, the
implications for TF are rather difficult to spell
out in a generalist way. But where such resources
are largely absent, foresight should aim to begin
the process of building them.
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Task 3 Identify whether are any kind of resource-
related challenges that may effect your ability
to conduct the mini Technology Foresight
exercise.
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THE PROCESS (5) Methods
In the previous lectures, we have introduced
different types of TF methods and we have also
discussed the inputs, processes, and outputs
associated with each methods and most
importantly when are they suitable to be used.
Many of the methods can be used in a variety of
ways. Hence, the selection of methods will depend
upon several factors, most notably available
time, financial resources, level of information
that you have - although increasing use of ICTs
in these methods has the potential to lower time
and monetary thresholds.
Task 4 What possible methods can you use in your
exercise, and why those selection has been made?
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THE PROCESS (6) Target audience
Usually, technology foresight should be a
participatory process involving time and
commitment from stakeholders who are involved in
the process. Hence the technology foresight
exercise should be clearly explained, transparent
and involve key stakeholders Also there should
also be a commitment from the outset to follow-up
and act upon foresight findings and outputs,
otherwise stakeholders will unlikely to give the
exercise a second chance. Here communication is a
key activity. Various tools can be used to
promote widespread appreciation of, and
participation, in foresight activities. This
includes Communication tools (database,
newsletter, website etc) aimed at widespread
promotion of the activities to be carried out and
thus, identification of players interested in
participating Initiatives aimed at encouraging
participation, such as conference, workshops and
other meetings. It is often helpful to work
together with specific intermediaries and sectors
of activity (academies of science, trade unions,
research centers, industry associations,
government ministries) whose aim is to encourage
participation and promote a more active and
knowledgeable involvement among their members or
clients llustrations of foresight success
stories in organizations or areas characterised
by similar problems and objectives.
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Task 5 Make a presentation of your plan next week
(i.e. the four tasks I have given you). Imagine
your friends as the senior management team of the
university. Try to convince them that your
project is worth doing!
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Group Assignment I List of Tasks

• Introduce your team and the set of expertise in
  the team
• Within the instructed function and outcome, find
  and agree on a set of future social, economic or
  environmental challenge(s) that that you would
  like focus on when justifying your technology
  foresight exercise
• Agree amongst your team members which field of
  technology is the best selection for your group.
  Also specify the reason why this selection has
  been made (particularly in relations to the
  challenges you identified before). Describe the
  technology.
• Identify whether are any kind of resource-
  related challenges that may effect your ability
  to conduct the mini Technology Foresight
  exercise.
• What possible methods can you use in your
  exercise, and why those selection has been made?
• Make a nice presentation of your plan next week
  (i.e. the 5 tasks above). Imagine your friends as
  the senior management team of the university. Try
  to convince them that your project is worth
  doing!

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EVALUATION
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Evaluation
Evaluation means the process of determining
whether an item or activity meets the specified
criteria
Policy evaluation means the process of
determining whether a policy intervention meets
its targets/objectives Or in short. Was it worth
the effort???
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Evaluation
Three main types of evaluation
(1) Accountability Was the activity efficiently
conducted and was public funds appropriately
used? (2) Justification Did the effects of the
foresight justify its continuation and extension?
(3) Learning Can the foresight be done better?
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Some examples of rationale for foresight and
associated evaluation issues