Presenting Time Series

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Presenting Time Series
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Presenting Time Series

• Process
• Workshop comparing practice across First Releases
• Differences in presenting time series spotted
• Task Force set up
• ONS Executive Board approved

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Presenting Time Series

• User view should be offered
• a long enough series to assess volatility
• a measure of current growth which helps a view to
  be taken of future behaviour
• a measure of reliability - is it prone to revision

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Presenting Time Series

• Current Practice for monthly series
• trends (balance of payments)
• moving 3 month average (IoP)
• month on month a year ago (AEI)
• three months on three months a year ago
  (employment)

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Presenting Time Series

• Best Practice
• Trends, but
• not all customers like it
• Insufficient expertise to develop and maintain
• difficult to explain choices of methods and
  parameters

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Presenting Time Series

• Quality
• Relevance
• Accuracy
• Reliability
• Timeliness
• Accessibility and clarity
• Comparability
• Coherence
• Completeness

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Presenting Time Series

• Role of text, tables and charts
• Text should add value
• more briefing up front
• tables - clear and factual
• charts - a sense of history and context
• - a measure of volatility
• - allow a view on the future

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Presenting Time Series

• Users
• Not yet consulted
• Chance to show statistical leadership
• differentiate between user types

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Presenting Time Series

• Trends
• Best practice
• No agreement on how
• lack of resource to pursue
• park for just now

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Presenting Time Series

• Principles
• best estimate of current growth is trend, office
  standard for monthly series is 3 months on three
  months
• Key message comes first ( down play monthly
  movements)
• Corporate standard

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Presenting Time Series

• Describe revisions performance in First Release
• Prune down and label correctly
• sound bites
• quotable chunks
• records
• etc.
• Differentiate targets from economic cycle measures

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• Recommendations
• Implement principles step by step
• Set up Business Time Series message committee, to
  pursue over the next five years