Global Warming: The Five Ws

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• Global Warming The Five Ws
• Carlo Stagnaro
• Director, Free Market Environmentalism
• Istituto Bruno Leoni
• www.brunoleoni.it
• Carlo.Stagnaro_at_brunoleoni.it

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New Zealander Cow
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European Cow
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Mad Cow
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Questions

• What is global warming? How are we going to
  address it?
• Where are climate policies to be enforced?
• When will this happen?
• Who is going to do this?
• Why are they doing so?

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What?

• We are told our planets climate is warming
• We are told that responsibility is upon
  humanitys shoulder (especially developed world)
• We are told we should cut greenhouse gases (GHGs)
  emissions
• That would have a huge economic cost.

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What?

• Temperature has always changed!
• We had glaciations, and that was a cold era
• We have no longer glaciations ours is a warm era.

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What?
Should you be a sailor who discover this
land, HOW WOULD YOU CALL IT? Perhaps Whiteland?
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What?

• Around 1000 A.D. Vikings discovered a green land,
  and called it Greenland
• Today Green land is not so green

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What?

• In 1757 Giandomenico Tiepolo painted an Italian
  Summer walk
• People are not dressed in a Summerish way
  according to todays standards.

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What?
Surface measurements seem to indicate a trend
towards a warmer temperature.
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What?

• Four periods
• 1880-1910 -0,1 C
• 1911-1940 0,4 C
• 1941-1967 -0,2 C
• 1968-1998 0,5 C.

The 70s scam was global cooling!
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What?

• IS A NEW ICE AGE COMING?
• A cooling trend has set in, perhaps one akin to
  the Little Ice Age
• Stephen Schneider, quote cited in The Washington
  Times, June 12, 1992

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What?
Trend 1979-2003 0.079 C per decade (Trend
1968-98 as measured by surface stations 0.16C)
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What?
Trend 1968-98 as measured by surface stations
0.16C 0.3 C !!!!!!
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What?

• To summarize
• We dont know whats happening
• We dont know what we have actually measured so
  far
• We dont know how to measure it
• We dont know why climate changes.

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How?

• Climate alarmists are supporting the Kyoto
  Protocol and other measures aimed at cutting
  GHGs
• We dont know if manmade emissions have a
  significant role in climate change
• Probably they dont, because climate dynamics are
  governed by many factors over which man has no
  control.

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What?
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How?

• Even assuming that anthropogenic emission have a
  role, the effect of complying with the Kyoto
  targets is negligible.

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How?
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How?

• Unfortunately, Kyoto costs are not negligible
• Kyoto requires a reduction in GHGs emission, i.e.
  energy consumption
• Energy prices would rise because of Kyoto
• GDP would fall and thousands jobs would be lost.

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How?

• Developed countries emission should be zero by
  2050 to meet the IPCC target of stabilizing
  atmospheric CO2 at 550 ppm.

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How?

• Most countries need huge cuts to comply with
  the post-2012 targets.

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How?

• Despite its strong support to Kyoto, the EU is
  not on doing what its campaigning for.

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How?

• The impact of the Kyoto Protocol in Europe would
  range from 1.8 GDP (UK) to 4.8 GDP (Spain)
  (ICCF Estimates)
• The so called emission trading is a scheme
  which would make emissions reduction more
  efficient, therefore more costly to consumers.
• More info at www.iccfglobal.org

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Where?

• European Union is the biggest supporter of Kyoto
• However, EEA pointed out that EU emissions are
  growing despite the costly policies member states
  are adopting (high energy prices, subsidies to
  renewables, etc.).

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Where?

• The key country is Russia. Without Russia, Kyoto
  will not formally enter in force, because less
  than 55 emissions are represented by the
  countries which have ratified so far.
• Russia is not likely to ratify, although it would
  be a short term winner because of Kyoto.

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Where?

• In the next few years, Russia could sell quotas
  (basically because the baseline year is 1990,
  just after the collapse of USSR)
• President Putin declared his economic goal is to
  double GDP by 10 years
• That will not be possible if Russia will not buy
  quotas in the longer run.

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Where?

• In the longer run, Russia would be a looser.

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Where?

• I have called my speech 'The Return of Gosplan.
  But the proposed mechanism would decrease quotas
  year by year. ... So it may be more correct to
  call it the return of the gulag.
• During the 20th century, Russia seriously
  suffered from another ideology that came from
  Europe. ... Not only Russia, but the whole world
  suffered.
• Andrej Illarionov, Chief Economic Advisor to the
  Russian President Vladimir Putin

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Where?

• At a ministerial meeting in Brussels on Tuesday
  (March 3rd, 2004)environment minister Altero
  Matteoli made a prolonged attempt to force a
  declaration from his colleagues that future
  emission-cutting action should depend on the
  treaty being ratified by Russia and thus entering
  into force. (Environmental Daily)
• We hope that Kyoto will be ratified, for example
  by Russia. But if that doesn't happen, it will
  distort competition at the expense of European
  and especially German economy, German Chancellor
  Gerhard Schroeder.
• We are following a strategy (of respecting the
  Kyoto Protocol) at the moment, but we need to
  look at other possible scenarios, EU Energy
  Commissioner Loyola de Palacio.
• EU leaders hide themselves behind Putins finger!

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When?

• Kyotos first commitment period is just behind
  the corner (2008-2012)
• IF EU and others really want to implement it,
  they should go further now or doing nothing
• IPCC targets are much stricter for the post-2012
  period
• Do we really want to prevent economic growth
  because of bad weather 100 years from now?

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When?

• Assuming that EU will go on with Kyoto, the
  question is not if, but when a member country
  will reject the treaty
• Whats EU going to do if faced with a reluctant
  country?
• Trade sanctions? Expulsion? In the latter case,
  the anti-Kyoto country could be better off (fewer
  trade barriers, lower taxes, lighter regulation,
  etc.)

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When?
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Who?

• Basically there are two kind of people who are
  pushing towards Kyoto
• People who have an economical or political
  interest in climate policies
• People who have an ideological interest in
  climate policies
• Their behavior is well described by the baptists
  and bootleggers theory.

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Who?

• The baptists and bootleggers theory shows how
  two appartently conflicting groups may pursue the
  same goal
• The term originates in the Southern USA, where in
  the past and even today Sunday closing laws
  prevent the legal sale of alcoholic beverages.

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Who?

• This is advantageous to bootleggers, who sell
  alcoholic beverages illegally
• They get all the market for themselves on Sunday.

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Who?

• Baptists and other religious groups support the
  same laws
• They are opposed to selling alcohol at all, but
  especially on Sunday.

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Who?

• Baptists take the moral high ground
• The bootleggers persuade politicians quietly,
  behind closed doors.

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Who?

• Climate baptists are (radical) environmentalists,
  who make an ideological opposition to whatever
  change man may do to the environment (including
  urbanization, industrialization, and perhaps
  agriculture)
• (Radical) environmentalists have a gnostic
  approach to policy they believe that man is
  inherently ugly so government should prevent men
  from behaving as men
• (Radical) environmentalists see global warming as
  a means to pursue their political goal, i.e. the
  animalization of man.

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Who?

• To capture the public imagination, we have to
  offer up some scary scenarios, make simplified
  dramatic statements and little mention of any
  doubts one might have. Each of us has to decide
  the right balance between being effective, and
  being honest
• Stephen Schneider

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Who?

• Climate bootleggers are environmental
  opportunists, and economical/political rent
  seekers
• For example, the wind industry in particular (and
  renewables industry in general) is lobbying for
  getting subsidies
• Some politicians fuel environmental scams in
  order to sell themselves as those who are
  saving our only planet and get votes.

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Who?

• The urge to save humanity is almost always a
  false front for the urge to rule.
• H.L. Mencken

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Why?

• The reasons of climate bootleggers are easy to
  understand
• Industry seeks immediate benefits
• Politicians seek power
• Climate baptists are the heirs of the old central
  planners
• They believe human action should be directed by a
  sort of central brain which takes care of all
• They also believe that market (i.e., freedom) is
  dangerous because man is bad-intentioned in the
  first place.

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Why?

• In fact, climate baptists, as well as other
  environmental baptists, are simply socialists
• After the collapse of communism (which
  incidentally was responsible of real
  environmental tragedies), the red dream of a
  man-made Earthly heaven have turned into the
  green dream of a man-free, Earthly heaven.

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Why?

• Often environmental concerns may be founded, but
  the solution proposed by most environmentalist
  organization is not a cure
• Statism will lead to a lower environmental
  quality because it implies an inefficient use of
  scarce resources (including environmental
  resources).

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Why?

• Climate change is an opportunity for them to
  propose a global deal against capitalism, i.e.
  global socialism
• Rent seekers are doing their job, that is,
  seeking rents
• Consumers, especially the poor, would be deeply
  impacted by Kyoto because of higher price of
  energy, lower standards of living, and fewer
  opportunities of getting richer.

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Conclusions

• Is climate warming? Maybe!
• Climate is always changing
• It makes no sense to address natural changes by
  way of anthropogenic measures
• Kyoto would result in immediate, relevant costs
  vis-a-vis distant in time, uncertain benefits
• It is unlikely that extra-EU, developed countries
  will ratify Kyoto.

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Conclusions

• The first commitment period is 2008-2012, so if
  we want to do something, we must do it now and
  we cant afford it (EUs growth last year was not
  growth at all)
• The Kyoto protocol is sponsored by a coalition of
  climate baptists and bootleggers they are not
  the very kind of people you find reliable
• Climate control is not about climate it is about
  control.

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Conclusions

• We should focus on real problems and facts,
  rather than environmental scams
• The most urgent need to address is poverty
  (almost 1 billion are starving), not weather
• The key to progress is the creation of wealth,
  which make it possible adaptation to changes,
  whether anthropogenic or natural
• Free market save human lives and makes
  environment cleaner
• Wealthier is healthier for all except for
  ideological environmentalists and rent seekers.

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Thank you for your attention Carlo
Stagnaro Director, Free Market Environmentalism
Contact Carlo.Stagnaro_at_brunoleoni.it