WREZ Generation and Transmission Work Group Update

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WREZ Generation and Transmission Work Group
Update

• Webinar
• October 7, 2008

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Modeling Work Group - Recap

• Two Primary Tasks
• Model Development
• WECC Transmission Planning
• Work Group Composition
• 64 members all sectors represented
• Regular meetings, mostly via phone/webinar
• Interface with other WREZ Work Groups
• Zone Identification (ZITA)
• Environment Lands
• July 31 formation of sub-groups
• Model Development Sub-Group
• Transmission Segments Sub-Group
• Transmission Characteristics Sub-Group

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GTMWG Schedule
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Model Development Sub-Group

• Preparation of straw man proposal
• SFO Meeting on September 12
• Refinement of work plan goals (topic of this
  webinar)
• Model input requirements for renewables provided
  to ZITA on Sept 23
• Costs
• Operations/performance
• Financial

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(No Transcript)
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Handoff to LBNL Black Veatch
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Screening-Level REZ Analysis Tool Status
Update October 7, 2008

• Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
• Black Veatch
• Generation Transmission Modeling Work Group

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Presentation Outline

• Context of tool development
• Motivation for tool
• Desired tool capabilities
• Three conceptual approaches and prioritization
  decision
• Decisions on basic tool functionality for first
  priority
• Resource selection
• Bus-bar cost
• Delivered cost
• Adjusted delivered cost
• Relative ranking
• Comparison of proposed tool to existing tools
• Discussion of potential expansion to accommodate
  second and third priority

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Context WREZ Project Phases

• Phase I Identify renewable resource potential,
  aggregate the best potential into REZs
• Phase II a) Build a model to enable LSEs,
  regulators, to others to estimate cost to deliver
  resources from REZs to load centers b) through
  existing WECC and sub-regional planning groups,
  develop conceptual transmission plans to deliver
  the energy from highest ranking REZs to centers
• Phase III Stimulate the development of
  commercial generation-transmission projects, or
  modification of existing proposed projects, to
  deliver REZ power
• Phase IV Engage political, industry and
  stakeholder leaders to build the interstate
  cooperation necessary to facilitate multi-state
  generation-transmission investments

LSE model is at intersection of Phases I II,
but it cannot substitute for the analysis to be
performed by transmission planning groups in
Phases II, III, and IV
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Motivations for the LSE Model

• LSEs have resource planning models to select
  optimal portfolio of resource options
• Transmission planners have economic and
  reliability tools to evaluate the cost
  effectiveness of transmission solutions given a
  particular mix of resources
• What is missing? A robust link between LSE
  resource choices and transmission expansion plans
  
• LSE resource planners often do not include
  distant resource options in planning models due
  to lack of data on delivered cost and performance
  of distant resources or policy decisions that
  constrain resource locations
• Transmission planners often do not include
  resource mixes in models that are motivated by
  LSE resource choices
• The WREZ LSE Model needs to build a link between
  these two types of planners (and their
  regulators), and inform each
• The WREZ LSE Model should not be a substitute for
  either type of planning approach

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Objectives/Capability of the LSE Model
Model Options
Generic Objectives
Multi seg. Trans. Screening models
Flexibility to change assumptions
Desired objectives
Comparison with local resources
Simplicity and transparency
Straw man proposal
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Straw-man
Local resource
REZ
Ranking determined from perspective of load zone
for all resources
LSE
Highly ranked REZ resource
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Straw-man
Local resource
Ranking is calculated for all load zones
simultaneously
REZ
LSE
Highly ranked REZ resource
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Multi-REZ/ Single Load Zone
Local resource
REZ
Multi-REZ/ Single Load Zone Analysis shows
potential benefit of combining multiple resources
on a single line
LSE
Highly ranked REZ resource
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Multi-REZ/ Multiple Load Zone
Local resource
Multi-REZ/ Multi-Load Zone Analysis shows
potential benefit of combining resources on a
single line with multiple on-ramps and off ramps
REZ
LSE
Highly ranked REZ resource
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Prioritization Decision

• First Priority
• Strawman proposal Provide relative ranking of
  any resource from the prospective of a load zone.
  Include information about relative ranking of
  resources from perspective of other load zones
• Transmission cost for each resource is based on
  single REZ, single load zone
• Second Priority
• Multiple resources from multiple REZs on the same
  transmission line to a single load centers
• Third Priority
• Multiple resources from multiple REZs to multiple
  load zones via multi segment transmission lines
• LBNL/BV to focus efforts on strawman initially,
  with consideration for whether the second
  priority item can be rolled into the strawman, or
  needs a separate model altogether.

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Decisions on basic tool functionality

• Resource selection
• Bus-bar cost
• Delivered cost
• Adjusted delivered cost
• Relative ranking

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Resource Selection

• Users can define which REZ resources to include
  in the analysis
• Quantity of resource has starting point value to
  fill a 500 kV transmission line (e.g. 1500 MW).
• Resource characteristics (capacity factor,
  interconnection cost, any capital cost
  adjustments) depend on quantity selected
• Resources that are not large enough to fill a 500
  kV line will have smaller starting point
  transmission assumptions
• User can change starting point resource
  selection, define resource size in terms of
  either delivered energy (GWh/yr) or name-plate
  capacity (MW)
• User can define other resources to include in
  analysis (e.g. local PV or CCGT). However model
  will not include any starting point assumptions
  for these resources

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Bus-bar Costs

• Capital cost data and performance data will be
  provided by ZITA
• Bus-bar costs will depend on quantity of resource
  selected (due to changes in capacity factor,
  interconnection cost, and other capital cost
  adjustments)
• Financial, tax, and incentive starting point
  assumptions will be coordinated with ZITA. User
  can changed starting point assumptions

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Delivered Cost

• Transmission distance between REZ interconnection
  points and Load Zones will be based on existing
  Rights of Way (ROW) when available (to be defined
  by GTM sub-group). Straight-line distance with
  multiplier will be used for sections with no
  existing ROW.
• Transmission will be treated as lumpy in the
  model. Various size lines will be available to
  the user 230 kV gt 500 kV Double Circuit AC and
  500 KV DC. Each line voltage will have distinct
  capacity and losses
• Transmission will be underutilized if selected
  resource has capacity much smaller than
  transmission capacity

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Adjusted Delivered Cost

• Market value adjustments will include
• Capacity value
• TOU energy value
• Integration costs (starting point assumption will
  depend on resource type only, no other factors)

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Relative Ranking of Resources

• Resources are ranked for each load zone
  simultaneously
• User can define which load zones to include in
  ranking
• Resources are ranked based on adjusted delivered
  cost, user can also choose to rank based only on
  delivered cost

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Comparison to Existing Tools

• Strawman builds on E3 GHG Calculator and RETI
  Analysis
• Strawman proposal allows user to rank resources
  from load zones across the West
• E3 and RETI only provide ranking for California
  load zones
• Strawman simultaneously highlights resources that
  are highly ranked for multiple load zones
• E3 and RETI cannot provide this information
• FEAST tool focuses on one pair of resources and
  loads in each scenario
• FEAST does not provide a relative ranking of
  multiple resources
• FEAST cannot highlight resources that are highly
  ranked for multiple load zones.

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Preliminary Thoughts on Multi-REZ/ Single Load
Zone Analysis

• Model add-on allows users to customize
  transmission to access renewable resources in
  several REZ for delivery to a single load zone
• Model add-on uses same database for resource and
  cost information
• User chooses set of resources and transmission.
  Strawaman analysis can guide user on resource and
  transmission selection
• Model calculates adjusted delivered cost of
  chosen resources based on user defined
  transmission segments
• Model includes functionality to calculate
  improvement in transmission utilization for
  segments that are shared by multiple resources

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Potential Multi-WREZ/ Single Load Zone Add-on
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• Return to Jerry Vaninetti

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Transmission Work Tasks

• Model Development Sub-Group
• Model design features
• Matrix of desired input to ZITA Workgroup
• Transmission Segments Sub-Group
• Mileage and routes
• Existing corridors and to link/access REZs
• Build on prior work Frontier, BC-CA NTAC
• Default routes for each load
• Transmission Costs Operations Sub-Group
• Voltages and capacity ratings AC DC
• Configurations single double circuit
• Line losses
• Line-mile and associated costs
• Financial and operating costs

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Primary WECC Transmission Paths
PEACE CANYON
PRINCE RUPERT
SUNDANCE
MICA
LANGDON
LANGDON
VANCOUVER
AREA
CANADA
SEATTLE
CHIEF JOSEPH
AREA
UNITED STATES
HOT SPRINGS
FT. PECK
PORTLAND
AREA
HELLS
COLSTRIP
CANYON
BUCKLEY
BURNS
BOISE
MIDPOINT
MALIN
SHASTA
ROUND MTN
TABLE MTN
SALT LAKE
CITY AREA
DENVER
AREA
SAN FRANCISCO
AREA
PINTO
FOUR
NAVAJO
CORNERS
HOOVER
PHOENIX
AREA
ALBUQUERQUE
MOJAVE
AREA
LUGO
LOS ANGELES
AREA
DEVERS
EL PASO
AREA
MEXICO
Source WECC/SSG-WI/WGA
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Example Transmission Segments
Peace
River
River
British
British
Alberta
Alberta
Columbia
Columbia
Canada
Canada
Seattle
Seattle
WA
WA
Portland
Portland
MT
MT
Celilo
Celilo
Colstrip
Colstrip
Pacific
OR
OR
Pacific
ID
ID
Ocean
Ocean
Malin
Malin
SD
SD
WY
WY
Midpoint
Midpoint
Borah
Borah
Round
Round
Mountain
Mountain
Laramie
Laramie
Jim
Jim
Salt
Salt
Bridger
Bridger
River
River
Lake
NV
NV
Lake
NE
NE
Reno
San Francisco
City
Reno
San Francisco
City
UT
UT
Denver
Denver
Market
CO
CO
Market
Four
Four
Place
CA
CA
Place
Corners
Corners
Los
Los
Palo
Palo
Angeles
Angeles
NM
NM
Verde
Verde
Albuquerque
Albuquerque
Phoenix
Phoenix
AZ
AZ
San Diego
San Diego
Tucson
Tucson
Mexico
Mexico
El Paso
El Paso
Source WEIB
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Potential WREZ Model Inputs from Transmission
Sub-Groups

• Modeling Concept Default inputs and ability to
  select alternatives for different routes,
  voltages configurations
• Transmission Segments
• Segments
• Mileage
• Transmission Characteristics (line-mile basis
  current )
• Capital and Operating Costs
• Capacity
• Line Losses
• Financial Annual revenue requirement
• Transmission Categories
• AC DC
• 230 kV
• Single-circuit and double-circuit

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Transmission Segments Sub-Group

• Select Chairperson
• Segments to connect load zones to REZs
• Possibly 100 segments?
• Largely confined to existing corridors
• Exceptions SWIP and HPX?
• Determination of mileages (scaled)
• Ultimately vetted with WECC
• Final step segments to link to REZs
• Initial due date November 15th

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Transmission Characteristics Sub-Group

• Selection of Chairperson
• Obtain input requirements from modelers
• Define inputs for different voltages
  configurations
• Possible geographic differences (west vs. inland)
• Ultimately vetted with WECC
• Initial due date November 15th