Technology Foresight Methods

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Technology Foresight Methods
Week 5
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For each method, try to identify the following

• Definition and basic principles/processes
• Outputs to policy makers
• Possible advantages and weaknesses
• Complimentarity with other methods
• Examples (for selected methods)

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Readings
Reference UNIDO (2005) Technology Foresight
Methods
1.Selecting foresight methods (p.116) 2.Three
key characteristics of foresight methods
(pp.117-119) 3.Identifying issues (pp. 121-123)
4.Extrapolative approaches (pp. 124-123) Read
in depth the Delphi Method Definition of Delphi
(pp. 145-146) When does the use of Delphi make
sense? (pp.146-147) Who is involved? Who is an
expert? (pp. 152-153) Analysis of results (pp.
154-158) 5.Creative methods (pp. 127-133) Read
in depth the Scenario Planning Method Definition
of Scenario planning (pp. 168-169) Scenario
generation methods (pp. 178-179) Scenario
workshops (pp.179-181) 6.Priority setting
(pp.134-135) Read in depth the Technology
Roadmapping Method Definition of Technology
Roadmapping (pp.208 213) Approaches in
Technology Roadmapping (pp.214-222) Read in depth
the Critical Technology Method Definition of
Critical Technology (pp.194-195) Method of
Critical Technologies (pp. 195-196) How to
conduct the exercise (pp. 196-201).
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C. Creative approaches
Foresight is a social and creative process upon
more than just the issue of definition and
extrapolation. Interactive processes that nurture
new and interesting knowledge combination are key
to the success of technology foresight.
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C1. Brainstorming It is a method that reduces
inhibitions about generating wild ideas, and
thus stimulate creativity and novel (or
previously unarticulated) viewpoints. The term is
applied loosely to any free ranging discussion,
but the classical definition refers to a specific
process involving two main steps. (i) A period
of freethinking, which is used to articulate and
capture ideas, with no critical comment (ii) The
early stage of idea generation is followed by
more rigorous discussion of these ideas It is
one of the best-known of methods for generating
novel solutions to problems!!!! But
brainstorming is only useful as a starting point
where it can provide a long list of ideas.
Because of the unstructured nature of the output,
it is not normally expected to be used directly
and need to be complemented with other methods.
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What is the opposite of night?
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• C2. Expert panels
• A method that uses an expert panel. This allow
  the foresight exercise to be opened up to
  potentially hundreds of individuals, but also
  provide an ideal platform for in-depth discussion
  and debate. For these reasons, expert panels act
  as the process centers in many foresight
  exercises.
• Panels come in many shapes and sizes, although
  the common perception is of a bunch of guys sat
  around a table (BOGSAT). Such a panel normally
  consist of 12 to 15 individuals and is mandated
  to use its collective expertise in addressing a
  particular problem or set of issues. Experts meet
  face-to face at regular intervals over a fixed
  time periods. During this time, they use their
  judgment in interpreting available evidence.
• e.g. Panels are given a very tight brief to
  arrive at a number of Delphi topic statement
  within a particular time.

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• The benefit of using expert panels are manifold
  and widely acknowledged as evidence by their
  extensive use in foresight exercises. This is
  particularly because of it is relatively easy to
  use this method with other methods. In Delphi,
  for instance, panels are a near necessity in the
  generation of inputs, interpretation of outputs
  and the overall conduct of the method.
• Other benefits include deep interaction and
  networking with various individuals with various
  expert background.

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C4. Scenarios This method consist of visions
of future possibilities and courses of
development, organised in a systematic way as
texts, charts etc. The term scenario can be used
narrowly (using one or two variable), but in
foresight it is used much broadly where a much
more fleshed out picture is produced, linking
many details together. Typically this will be
a mixture of quantifiable and non-quantifiable
components. They may be presented in a discursive
and narrative way (illustrated with vignettes,
snippets of fiction and imitation of newspaper
stories) or tabulated in the form of tables,
graphics and other systematic framework. The
advantages of the scenario approach is that it
provide planners with one point estimates of
innumerable possiblities of what the future
holds. In doing so, they help participants to
radically alter the way they think about the
future by understanding better alternative
needs of futures and able to develop better
informed strategies and policy options.
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• Scenarios can be used for various purposes
• as inputs to kick-start discussion and idea
  generation in panels. This could be done by
  asking what might happen under various
  circumstances, or aspirational by asking how
  specific futures can be achieved (or avoided).
• as tools for working groups to marshal their
  arguments and test the robustness of policies,
• as presentational devices that can communicate
  foresight results to a wider public.
• as an element of the foresight process, with
  their major contributions involving the exchange
  of vision and thus the deepening of linkages in
  networks, or as products of the activity that can
  be circulated to a broad audience.

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UK Foresight Environment Scenario
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D. Priority-setting
Foresight are often conducted with the primary
aim of identifying priorities for technology
development and/or research spending.
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D1. Critical or key technologies This method
consist of applying a set of criteria against
which the criticality (importance) of a
particular technology (research direction) can be
measured. It is especially useful in situations
where straightforward discrete recommendations
for discussion at the political level are the
prime objective. This is important as
identification of strategic research priorities
that can contribute to favourable economic
development and to the fulfillment of social
needs of the society, while optimally utilising
limited public funds, is the subject of numerous
foresights studies. The potential weakness of
this method is that only a relatively narrow
group of experts are participating in the
exercise. In addition, the method tend to focus
exclusively on the technologies without paying
sufficient attention to other issues (e.g. wider
socioeconomic issues).
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Typical steps of critical technologies exercise
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The prioritisation strategy used by the UK
foresight programme
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Scheme of Prioritization
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Results of voting Panel for information society
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Ranking of technologies in the plane of
parameters attractiveness and feasibility
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D2. Technology roadmapping A method based on
multi-layered time-based graphical charts that
enable technology developments to be aligned with
market trends and drivers. In this way, research
and other development directions can be
established and actions determined in a
goal-oriented manner. Technology mapping
represent a powerful technique for supporting
technology management and planning in the firm.
Hence, it has been widely used in the industry
but recently technology roadmap has been used to
support foresight at the national (e.g. UK
Foresight Vehicle http//www.oit.doe.gov/aluminiu
m) and sectoral level (e.g. The Semiconductor
Association http//public.itrs.net/files/1999_SIA
_Roadmap/Home.htm)
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Schematic technology roadmap
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Different approaches of technology roadmapping
Product planning
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Service/capability planning
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Long-range planning
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Integration planning
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Summary graphical roadmap for hybrid, electric
and alternatively fuelled vehicle technology
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Roadmap for the Development and
Commercialisation of Fuel Cell Technology in
Malaysia
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DELPHI
Identifying Issues
Extrapolative approaches
Methods
Creative approaches
Prioritisation
Scenario analysis
Critical technology
Technology roadmapping
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Three key characteristics of foresight methods

Exploratory/Normative

• Exploratory methods They begin with the present
  as the starting point and move forward to the
  future, either on the basis of extrapolating past
  trends or causal dynamics, or else by asking
  what if? questions about the implications of
  possible development or events that may lie
  outside of these familiar trends.
• Normative methods They start with a preliminary
  view of possible (often a desirable) future or
  set of futures that are of particular interests.
  They then work backwards to see if and how these
  possible futures might or might not grow out of
  the present how they might be achieved, how
  they might be avoided given available
  constraints, resources and technologies.

There is little evidence as to when each of these
approaches is most valuable, and again in
practice, foresight often involves a mixture of
the two. It may be that more normative approaches
are most likely to be effective where there is a
widely shared goal already in existence, and
where foresight can then help elaborate the
implicit vision of the future. In other cases,
normative approaches may be considered
insufficiently objective, or there may be a lack
of consensus as to shared goals, at least in
early stages of the foresight process.
Exploratory methods can then be expected to
dominate.
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Quantitative/Qualitative

• Quantitative methods methods place heavy
  reliance on numerical representation of
  developments. These have considerable advantages
  by providing the ability to examine rates and
  scale of change
• Qualitative methods are employed where the key
  trends or developments are hard to capture via
  simplified indicators, or where such data are not
  available.

The exact mix of methods is highly dependent on
access to relevant expertise, and on the nature
of the problems being studied. They represent
different approaches to handling information, and
can contribute powerful insights in their own
ways. There is a strongly-rooted tendency to
place more weight on quantitative data. This is
misguided such data can be invaluable in giving
a broad overview, in demonstrating the incidence
of phenomena, the representativeness of case
studies or opinions, and the like. But they can
rarely probe the dynamics of a phenomenon in any
depth, and are restricted to concepts and
indicators that are usually quite limited and
liable to give only a partial hold on the issues
at stake. In practice foresight work can never be
completely dominated by quantitative methods and
their results. The task is to establish an
appropriate role for such methods.
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Expert/Assumption based techniques

• Expert based techniques seek to draw out
  informed opinion and the evidence that underlies
  expert judgments. They seek to articulate views
  about the future, of the trends and contingencies
  that may give rise to alternative futures, and of
  goals that should be striven for and the critical
  priorities and strategies here.
• Qualitative methods are ones that elaborate
  visions and priorities on the basis of knowledge
  that is usually already public (available
  statistics, published analyses of likely
  breakthroughs or other developments and
  contingencies)

The key issue at stake here is how far we are
able to rely upon data and knowledge of processes
and relationships that has already been codified
and subject to some scrutiny, as opposed to
having to elicit opinions and guesstimates from
experts as to what might be the state of affairs
now and in the future. The nature of the topics
considered in foresight is such that a
combination of the two will almost invariably be
called for. Expert judgements have to be deployed
where we are considering rapid change,
qualitative breaks, and social and technological
innovations. The questions that arise are more
ones of how to use such opinion than whether to.
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Next tutorial
You will spend the tutorial hour reading a
paper by Cuhls entitled From Forecasting to
Foresight processes New participative
Activities in Germany and in groups, prepare
answers on a question that will be posed at the
beginning of the class. Your answers will be
presented and discussed in the next tutorial.
NOTE - This time you will be divided in
different groups from last week - Dont forget
to bring your own dictionary!!!