Risk Analysis at

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Risk Analysis at Strategic Level (MSG-049 demo
planning session)
Dr. Zlatogor MINCHEV, CoE-OA, Bulgarian Academy
of Sciences
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Contents

• Who we are?
• 2. Risk Analysis at Strategic Level (I-SCIP
  Powersim)
• 3. I-SCIP Scenario Evaluation Analysis
• 4. Dynamic Scenario Simulation with PowerSim
  Studio
• 5. Summary Conclusions

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Who we are?

• Center of Excellence in Operational Analyses
  (CoE-OA) is founded in 2005 in the
• framework of
• NATO SfP 981149 - Operations Research Support to
  Force and Operations
• Planning in the New Security Environment
• Participants
• Institute for Parallel Processing - Bulgarian
  Academy of Sciences
• Institute of Mathematics and Informatics -
  Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
• Defence and Staff College G.S. Rakovski.
• Capabilities
• Architecture development
• Modelling Simulation
• Computer Assisted Exercise Operational Analysis
  
• Capabilities Planning
• Architecture Governance
• Projects Management Assessment

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Joint Training Simulation Analyses Center

• Founded in 2006 upon NATO SFP 981149 -
  Operations Research Support to
• Force and Operations Planning in the New Security
  Environment (CoE-OA) and
• EU-TACOM-SEE-2006 / Protection 2006.
• Participants
• CoE-OA, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (Center for
  National Security and
• Defense, Space Research Institute, Geophysical
  Institute, National
• Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,
  Bulgarian high-tech companies)
• Capabilities
• Scenario development and Analyses
• Architecture and training centers development for
  CAX
• Joint CAX (Local and Distributed)
• Planning Management and Assessment

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JTSAC Architecture
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• Risk Analysis at Strategic Level (I-SCIP
  PowerSIM)

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Demo Scenario
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Intelligent Scenario Computer Interface Program
(I-SCIP)

• Main Application
• multilevel interactive
• scenario development
• and risk elements non-probabilistic static
• classification
• Fundamentals AI Experts
• knowledge integration on the
• bases of Morphological Analysis,
• Generalized Systems Theory, E-R
• Paradigm and Brainstorming
• Benefits Scenarios DB Creation,
• Rapid Understandable
• Scenario/Elements Classification,
• Subject-matter Experts Participation,
• Experts-Reliable Results

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Draft I-SCIP Scenario Evaluation

• Milestones
• - Brainstorming
• - Scenario type evaluation- passive
  (non-controlable) and proactive (controlable)
• Selecting building elements for system analysis.

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Detailed I-SCIP scenario evaluation
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Dynamic Scenario Simulation with PowerSim
Studio

• Main Applications Risk
• Analysis, Resource Distribution,
• Information Integration,
• Data Interoperability.
• Fundamentals Modelling,
• Simulation, Dynamic Systems
• Theory, Forecasting, Risk
• Analysis
• Benefits Implementation of
• the detailed I-SCIP Analysis,
• Rapid Understandable
• Scenario Dynamics
• Representation,
• Forecasting Flexibility

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General Causality Diagram of the Model
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Summary Conclusions

• Risk Analyses at Strategic Level
• Scenarios DB building
• Brainstorming of subject-matter experts for
  scenario modification
• General and detailed strategic risk analysis
• Scenario simulation and risk forecasting
• On-line simulation modifications handling
• Clear graphical representation
• Fast flexible results production.

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• Point of Contact
• Dr. Zlatogor Minchev,
• acad. G. Bonchev Str., Bl.25A, room 116,
• 1113 SOFIA BULGARIA, phone [phone]
• E-mail zlatogor_at_bas.bg

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Thank you for the attention!