TRANSTOOLS

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TRANS-TOOLS
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Agenda

• Monday 24th of January
• 1030 Coffee
• 1045 Opening by Otto Anker Nielsen
• 1050 State of affairs TRANS-TOOLS and
  administrative issues (TNO-Arnaud Burgess)
• 1100 WP1 Policy and model needs and identify
  model specification (TNO- Arnaud Burgess)
• 1230 Lunch
• 1330 WP1 (Discussion Continued)
• 1430 WP2 Implementation of data input
  (TRT-Angelo Martino)
• 1530 Break
• 1600 WP3 Model development and calibration
  freight (NEA-Philippe Tardieu/Ming Chen)
• 1700 WP3 Model development and calibration
  passenger (IWW-Markus Kraft/Michael Krail)
• 1800 Closing 1st day

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Agenda

• Tuesday 25th of January
• 930 Prof Steen Leleur "Decision support and
  scenarios Handling of uncertainty"
• 1000 Conclusion previous day (All)
• 1100 WP4 Construct common model software
  implementation tool (CTT-Otto Anker Nielsen)
• 1230 Lunch
• 1330 WP4 (Discussion Continued)
• 1430 WP5 Scenarios and application (TNO- Arnaud
  Burgess)
• 1500 Planning of activities/meeting schedule
  (TNO)
• 1515 Activities for the next period (to do list)
  (TNO)
• 1530 Closing meeting

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Administrative and other issues

• The transfer of the advance payment has been
  approved on Friday, January 21. The money will
  probably be on the partners bank account on
  Monday (or maybe Tuesday). There was some delay
  due to busy administrative activities at the
  beginning of the new year.
• The first cost statement for the EU has to be
  made in October 2005 (deadline for the EC
  November 15). We will inform you in September.
• A financial audit will be required, so inform
  your financial auditor in time about the project.
  Hopefully he/she has already experience with FP6
  projects.
• 11th of February participation TRANSFORUM
  workshop, as part of WP1 (participation in a
  workshop).

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TRANS-TOOLS Goals

• Clear innovations obtained from TRANS-TOOLS
• Intermodality for passenger/freight (as National
  and European transport policies seek to promote
  intermodality through different measures).
• Inclusion of intercontinental flows (mainly for
  freight), as some models do not cover this
  segment.
• Full coverage of Central and Eastern Europe
  (Accession Countries and the countries at the
  borders of the enlarged European Union).
• Integration of the new Member States at a level
  similar to those of EU 15.
• Feedback infrastructure development-economy (as
  the question of indirect effects in the economy
  and on network level is important, especially
  where investment has a substantial influence -
  notably for the Accession Countries).
• Logistics/freight chain explicitly included.
• Coupling method with local traffic in order to
  address the effect of congestion on long-distance
  traffic.
• A software approach is chosen which results in a
  software modelling tool on network level

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TRANS-TOOLS Goals

• Indentified shortcomings in modelling
• No satisfactory representation of the mix of
  traffic on network (short/long distance and
  freight/passenger).
• Intermodality, as well as transport chains as
  standard load units (in case of freight), and
  logistics not well (or partly) covered in models.
• Differences in implementation of OD base year for
  freight traffic in some models, this leads to
  non-acceptance by member states
• Forecasting procedures do not capture important
  features as acknowledged by policy makers
  (notably the reaction of the economy on transport
  initiatives, captured in indirect network
  effects) Fixed origin destination matrices are
  to some extent a problem, one expects in the long
  run an adaptation in economic behaviour due to
  changed accessibility.
• Some models are not updated and use still
  outdated base year data and do not cover all new
  accession countries to a sufficient degree. Some
  models have limited network representation
  especially in new member states and the candidate
  countries.
• No sufficient linkage of network based transport
  models with socio economic effects
  (accessibility) and external effects exists at
  moment

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TRANS-TOOLS Goals
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TRANS-TOOLS Test run June 05
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TRANS-TOOLS Test run June 05

• Network established
• Road (NEA ? CTT)
• Rail (IWW ? CTT)
• IWW (CTT)
• Maritime (TNO ? CTT)
• Air (IWW ? CTT)
• Feeding points passenger/freight (IWW ? CTT)
• Freight executable
• Data 2000 (NEA? CTT)
• Production/attraction trade model (NEA? CTT)
• Modal split (NEA? CTT)
• Nuts 2 unimodal freight tonnes/vehicles (NEA?
  CTT)
• Converting freight into NUTS 3 (CTT)

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TRANS-TOOLS Test run June 05

• Passenger executable
• Data 2000 (IWW ? CTT)
• Production/attraction model (IWW ? CTT)
• Modal split (IWW ? CTT)
• Nuts 3 unimodal passenger/vehicles(IWW ? CTT)
• Network assignment
• Speed flow function implementation (IWW ? CTT)
• Cost functions for freight (NEA/TNO ? CTT)
• Cost functions for passenger (IWW ? CTT)
• Testing assignment (with matrices baseyear)
  (CTT)
• Testing assignment with freight and passenger
  executable (CTT)

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TRANS-TOOLS Policy analysis

• European Commission
• White book contains 76 specific measures
• EU15
• Economic sustainability
• External effects and their pricing
• Modal split
• Local traffic and congestion
• Feedback processes economy-infrastructure
  investment
• Accessibility and reliability of transport
  networks
• Correlation of transport with economic
  activity-Decoupling
• Transport as a driver of the economy
• Transport efficiency
• Effect of international transport flows
• Compliance to Commission policies
• Safety and security
• Notably in New Member States
• Feedback processes economy-infrastructure
  investment
• Infastructure Investement

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TRANS-TOOLS Policy analysis

• Main lines in Community policy
• 1. Liberalisation and Harmonisation
• 2. Investment and Technologies
• 3. Pricing, Taxation, and Financing
• 4. Safety, Quality, and Environment

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EU Transport categories coverage by models
Liberalisation Harmonisation
Investment Technologies
Pricing, taxation and financing
Safety, quality and environment
ROAD
Env. impact
MULTIMODAL (RAIL, IWW)
SEA
PASSENGER FREIGHT
NETWORK
ZONING (NUTS 2 / NUTS 3)
URBAN
SAFETY
Not covered
ACTUAL
TRANS-TOOLS
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EU transport policies covered by models (1)
Liberalisation Harmonisation
Investment Technologies
Pricing, taxation financing
Safety, quality environment
GOODS FLOW VOLUMES
MODAL SPLIT
TEN-T
COST TARIVES
MACRO ECONOMIC EFFECTS
INTERNATIONAL FLOWS
CONGESTION
Not covered
ACTUAL
TRANS-TOOLS
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EU transport policies covered by models (2)
Liberalisation Harmonisation
Investment Technologies
Pricing, taxation financing
Safety, quality environment
ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Feedback processes economy-infrastructure
investment
EU 25
DECOUPLING ECONOMY-TRANSPORT GROWTH
VOT
LOS
SECURITY
Not covered
ACTUAL
TRANS-TOOLS
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TRANS-TOOLS Policy analysis shortcommings

• Full coverage of all EU countries. Existing
  models already cover the traditional EU-15 member
  states for the greater part, but data on the
  required transport performance in new Member
  States are hardly included.
• Explicit link between economic and transport
  models. The existing models do not yet directly
  link transport developments nor incentives to
  economic effects. Vice versa, economic
  developments and incentives are commonly linked
  to transport effects in a rather general manner.
  Hence, the interrelationships between economic
  and transport models are not yet fully included
  in the contemporary models.
• Inclusion of LoS (Level of Service). How to come
  from yearly observed values to AADT and a measure
  of quality of service? In current models are
  constructed on the basis of yearly values (i.e.
  the yearly volume of tonnes, passengers, vehicles
  between origin and destination or on a link),
  however congestion does have a time component
  (per day per season).

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TRANS-TOOLS Policy analysis shortcommings

• 4. Appropriate zoning system. Some existing
  models work at too coarse spatial level and
  therefore traffic assignment results are not
  always enough accurate. Still keeping a different
  zoning systems for freight (NUTS 2) and
  passengers (NUTS 3) for trip distribution and
  modal split (essentially due to difficulties in
  the data availability and statistics gaps for
  goods movements), it is important at least to
  have an homogenous detailed assignment at NUTS 3
  level which allows the inclusion of elements of
  local traffic.
• 5. Freight intermodality and logistics is covered
  to some extent in current models. Logistics is
  previously implemented in SMILE and in SCENES, on
  European scale the implementation is necessary,
  since it is one of the drivers of transport
  growth (see annex). However it is in SCENES never
  calibrated. is not yet tested. In passenger
  transport intermodality is covered to a better
  extent than freight in existing models. The
  present set of European models provide sufficient
  details for motive of journey and commodity
  classification which can be used for a market
  segmentation.
• 6. Use of recent data. European transport models
  should be based on most recent data. The best
  harmonised available data comes from ETIS-BASE,
  for the year 2000 data are available for
  passenger and for freight. An integrated model
  should use this information. For freight it is
  important that intercontinental freight flows are
  included since these are a determining factor in
  European freight flows.

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TRANS-TOOLS Direct/indirect effects
Indirect effects Additional benefits via
transport using sectors?
Efficiency gains ?
?

EU
NAS
Redistribution of welfare ?
Present practice Direct effects Changes in
transport usage and price environmental effects
Direct vs. indirect
Generative vs. distributive
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TRANS-TOOLS Direct/indirect effects
Scenario A1 Implementation of TEN priority
projects
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TRANS-TOOLS Direct/indirect effects
Scenario B2 SMCP applied to all modes of
transport
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TRANS-TOOLS Policy analysis
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TRANS-TOOLS Goals
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Example SCENES Network
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TRANS-TOOLS Blueprint Logistics

• Analogy with business processes
• Difference with passenger transport
• Long term process

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TRANS-TOOLS Blueprint Logistics
Annual road tonnes lifted, average length of
haul, and tonne-kilometres for Belgium, France,
Germany and Netherlands
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TRANS-TOOLS Logistics module
H
B
?

• O/D Trade ? O/D transport !
• 40 products (high valued) goods in volume via a
  DC
• New in NL (SMILE), UK and S follow
• integral logistics costs
• Data difficult to obtain

B
?
B
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Demand supply in logistic costs
transport inventory warehousing

• supply side
• interest level
• inventory policy
• fixed costs
• demand side
• demand variability
• (cyclical, incidental)
• delivery frequency
• goods value

• supply side
• handling tariffs
• storage tariffs
• demand side
• packaging density
• volume/weight ratio

• supply side
• time
• tariffs
• demand side
• req. lead time
• shipment size

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Demand supply in logistic costs
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TRANS-TOOLS Blueprint
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TRANS-TOOLS Blueprint

• "policy levers" of the TRANS-TOOLS model
• costs and travel times, i.e. for each measure you
  want to evaluate you would need an estimate of
  its impact on costs and time and then with that
  information you would get the impacts on traffic,
  environment and economic activity
• logistics parameters (besides transport, also
  inventory and warehouse costs)
• Socio-economic (GDP, population, employment, car
  ownership)
• parameter changes (structural model parameters,
  emissions)
• network changes