Mr Keith Miller

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ADWEC (Winter 2008 / 2009)Electricity Water
DemandForecast 2009 - 2030
Mr Keith Miller Director of Planning Studies
Directorate
Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company(ADWEC)
Telephone [phone] Fax 971 (2)
642 5773keithmiller_at_adwec.ae
www.adwec.ae
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Presentation Overview

• Purpose of presentation
• Present ADWECs 2009 - 2030 demand forecasts
  The ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast was
  completed in April 2009.
• Based on available data in late 2008 / early
  2009.
• Thus all 2009 data shown in this presentation
  are forecasts not actuals.
• Higher demand creates a need for more new IWPP
  capacity.
• ADWEC must purchase additional IWPP capacity to
  satisfy demand increases.
• Scope of presentation
• Introduction
• ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecast 2009 2030
• ADWEC Water Demand Forecast 2009 2030
• Summary

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Introduction
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ADWEC and Law Number 2 of 1998

• Within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi ADWEC is the
  Single Buyer and Seller of electricity and water.
  
• ADWEC is responsible inter alia for
• Electricity Water Demand Forecasting.
• Electricity Water Capacity Planning.
• Contracting of new IWPP capacity and BST
  preparation.
• Contracting for gas / fuel supply.
• Financial Settlement
• ADWECs legal Demand Forecasting and Capacity
  Planning
• duties are fulfilled via annual
• Electricity Water Demand Forecasts.
• Statement of Future Capacity Requirements.

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Article 30 of Law Number 2 of 1998

• Also requires ADWEC to
• ensure that, at all times, all reasonable
  demands for water and electricity in the Emirate
  are satisfied.
• To satisfy Law Number 2s requirements ADWEC
  preparesannual forecasts of electricity and
  water demand.
• ADWECs Demand Forecasts are used to prepare
• ADWEC Statement of Future Capacity Requirements
• TRANSCO 5 Year Planning Statement
• Bulk Supply Tariff, ADWEA Budget and Other
  Planning.

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Key Recent Demand Developments
1. Global Financial Crisis (GFC)When this
forecast was being prepared in late 2008 / early
2009 the full impact of the GFC on ADWECs demand
forecast was not fully known. Demand forecast
based on available information in late 2008 /
early 2009 of impact of GFC.ADWEC Winter 2009 /
2010 demand forecast will fully reflect impact of
GFC on electricity / water demand. 2. Inclusion
of significant additional exports to Northern
Emirates. 3. Inclusion of significant
additional ADNOC electricity demands. 4. Release
of UPCs Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 in September
2007. 5. Releasing of surplus oil revenues for
major infrastructuredevelopments and industrial
expansion (e.g. KPIZ / Zonescorp). 6. Changes
in land ownership laws during 2005.
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ADWECElectricity Demand Forecasts2009 - 2030
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ADWECWater Demand Forecasts2009 - 2030
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Key Water Issues (i)

• Constrained versus Unconstrained Forecasts
• Water network constraints limit the amount of
  water than can be delivered to customers.
• Currently not all of the water desalination
  capacity can be fully utilised because of
  water network constraints.
• Water demand is by definition unconstrained,
  i.e. how much water consumers would like to
  consume.
• Water network constraints limits the amount of
  water than customers can consume.
• ADWEC prepares two water demand forecasts
• 1. Constrained Demand Forecast (including
  impact of transmission constraints) 2.
  Unconstrained Demand Forecast (assuming no
  transmission constraints).
• Until 2012 Constrained Demand Forecast lt
  Unconstrained Demand Forecast
• 2012-2030 Constrained Demand Forecast
  Unconstrained Demand Forecast

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Key Water Issues (ii)

• Removal of Water Network Constraints
• TRANSCOs water network constraints are assumed
  to be fully removed by 2012.
• TRANSCOs water network constraints primarily
  reduce the amount of water that can be supplied
  to Al Ain region (AADC).
• The removal of TRANSCOs network constraints
  will enable more water to be delivered to the
  Al Ain region.
• New Short Term Demands
• Substantial new water demands notified to ADWEC
  since March 2008.

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Summary

• Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and economic
  downturn has lowered the demand forecast in the
  early years to some extent.
• A significant increase in exports to the Northern
  Emirates has been committed to.
• Significant increase in electricity to be
  supplied to ADNOC.
• Short medium term slower electricity demand
  growth in
• (1) Residential / Commercial Mega Projects (2)
  Industry
• is partially offset by higher ADNOC demand in
  short run. More than fully offset in the
  medium-term and increased in the long-run.
• ADWEC demand forecasts will be updated in late
  2009 / early 2010 and will become the ADWEC
  Winter 2009 / 2010 Demand Forecast.

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THANK YOU
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Annex ADWEC Planning Process
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Implementation Schedules
IWPPs require up to 4 years from decision to
proceed to completion
Years
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ADWEC Electricity Map
Ras Al Khaimah
Galailah
Umm Al Quwain
Khowr Khawer
Ajman
Khorfakkan
4,651 MW
Dibba
Hamariya
861 MW
Fujairah
SEWA Network
Tawian
EMAL 2,220 MW (2010)
2,433 MW
Qidfa
Saja
DEWA Network
Dhaid
Gurfa
To Dubai (ENG interconnection)
Sharjah
Fujairah
1,150 MW (2010)
1,150 MW
Warsan
Taweelah
Dubai
250 MW (2009) 400 MW (2010)
Yas Island
Bahia
Saadiyat
Samha
900 1,150 MW (2010)
GUP-TAKREER(ADNOC) 676 MW
1,615 MW
Hayer
(Nov2009)
Delma
Sweihan
Mina (ADST)
Shahama
186 MW
Al Oha/Al Foa
Airport
E48
UAN
Shamkha
Dahma
256 MW
Jebel Dhanna
Dhabiya (ADCO Load)
GIC
(May 2009)
To Al Wassit (GCC interconnection)
Wathba
Ramah
Khazna
Salamat
NGI Plant (ADCO Load)
To Salwa (GCC interconnection)
Ruwais
Al Ain
Mussaffah
Sila
Mirfa
Shuweihat
Central
Zakher
Tarif
Sanaiya
Rumaitha (ADCO Load)
Mazyad
Al Ain SW
10,110 MW
ONGS (ADCO Load)
Arad
Bab (ADCO Load)
(Oct 2009)
Ghayathi
Habshan (ADCO Load)
(Nov2009)
Abu Dhabi
Madinat Zayed
Existing 400kV circuits Existing 220kV
circuits Existing 132kV circuitsADNOC 132kV
circuits Power Station Sub-Station ADNOC Oil
Gas Plant EMAL Smelter Under Construction Planned
Planned line cut
Wagan
Bu Hasa (ADCO Load)
Sahil (ADCO Load)
109 MW
Asab (ADCO Load)
Umm El Oush
AGD II (ADCO Load)
Hameem (ADCO Load)
Liwa West (Eradah)
Liwa
TOTAL (GROSS MW)
X
Existing Capacity as of 31/12/2009 along with
ADNOC, ENG, GCC EMAL interconnection.
November 13, 2009
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ADWEC Water Map
Ras Al Khaimah
102 MGD
N-5807Jul 2009
Jazirat Al-Hamra
Fujairah
297 MGD
Qidfa
REEM ISLAND
Sharjah
145 MGD
Jebel Ali
Tanks
N-4268Dec 2010
TO UNIT 3
Dubai
N-5805May 2010
Sih Shoib
Taweelah
Jurf
Samha
DETAIL A
Al-Maha Forests
101 MGD
ADPS
39 MGD
Tao Off 9A
Ajban
UNIT 3
UAN
Tap Off 12
Lulu Island
Sweihan
N-4381Aug 2010
Adla
Units I II
UNIT 4
UNIT 5
Mussaffah
Abu Al Abyad
Bani Yass
Shoubaisi
N-6820/6821July 2011
Shuweihat
Al-Saad
Mirfa
Sila
Ramah
Al Ain
Tarif
New Mirfa PS
N-6139Jul 2011
684 MGD
Abu Dhabi
PS1
1600 mm 1400 mm 1200 mm 1000 mm 900 mm 800 mm 600
mm 500 mm Pumping Station (PS) Desalination
Plant Proposed PS Under Construction / Proposed
Ghayathi
PS2
N-3850Sep 2009
Madinat Zayed
Wagan
Liwa
TOTAL
Includes planned extensions as of 31/12/2009,
excluding isolated Plants and Al Ain Network.
November 13, 2009
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ADWEC Planning Overview
Demand Forecast(including losses auxiliary
consumption)

Add Reserve Margin(Electricity GSS LOLE 0.1 /
Water DSS 1 day in 50 years)
Required Capacity Forecast
Versus
Existing / Planned / Under Construction Capacity
New Capacity Requirements
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ADWEC Electricity and Water Demand Forecasting
Regions
2006 peak per capita consumptions

• Electricity 3 kW per capita
• Water 86 gallons per capita

Abu Dhabi Region
Al Ain Region
Western Region
Note The sum of regional peaks is not equal to
the system peak because of timing differences.
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ADWEC Demand Forecasting Process
Inputs
ADWEC Electricity WaterDemand Forecasts
Population Inputs1. Urban Planning Council
(UPC) 2. Mega Projects Population Forecasts 3.
2005 Census 4. Government Organisations 5. ADWEC
Historical Population Forecasts
Residential / Commercial
Industrial Inputs 1. Zonescorp 2. ADBIC 3.
Khalifa Port Industrial Zone (KPIZ) 4. ADNOC /
GASCO / ADCO etc
Industrial Sector
ADWEA Company Demand Forecasts1. AADC 2.
ADDC 3. TRANSCO (e.g. transmission losses)4.
ADWEC Auxiliary Consumption
All Sectors Transmission Code
Other Demand Forecasts / Inputs 1. Mega
Projects Developers Forecasts 2. Mega Projects
Master plans3. Government Organisations 4. Other
Emirates Demand Forecasts 5. ADWEC Assumptions
All SectorsMega Projects / Non-Mega
Projects Other Emirates
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ADWEC Demand Forecast Data Sources
Official Data Sources
ADWECIndependent Research
ADWECPublic Sources Database

• ADWEC Site Visits
• Publications
• MEED magazine
• Gulf News
• Khaleej Times
• Property Weekly
• Arabic Newspapers
• Internet
• gulfnews.com
• khaleejtimes.com
• uaeinteract.com
• ameinfo.com
• gulfconstructionworldwide.com
• aldar.com
• sorouh.com
• other developers websites
• google.co.uk

• Database created using public sources only
• Private developer information is not used in the
  Public Database.
• Public Database is used as
• Project Checklist
• Project Population Check
• Create Comparison Forecast
• ADWEC generic assumptions(e.g. 3 kW per capita)
• Public Sources Database
• Comparison Forecast

• Urban Planning Council
• Transmission Code
• Distribution Companies Transmission
  Company
• 2005 Census
• Developers Plans
• 2001 Census
• Customer Databases
• Abu Dhabi Departments
• UAE Ministries
• Customer Requests

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Abu Dhabi Metropolitan Area
Population Forecasts
ADWECs Base Demand Forecasts now based on UPCs
Plan Abu Dhabi 2030
Source Urban Planning Council Plan Abu Dhabi
2030
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ADWEC Base Electricity Methodologyfor
Residential / Commercial Mega Projects
Mega Projects Developers Connected Load Forecasts
ADWEC Mega Project Implementation Lags (based on
Site Visits / Progress / Past Experience etc)
ADWEC Demand / Diversity Factors
Developers Connected Load x ADWEC Demand /
Diversity Factors Unadjusted Developers Mega
Projects Peak Demand Forecast
Peak Demand Forecast Adjustment Factors for 2013
/ 2020 / 2030 UPCs Total Population
Forecasts versus Mega Projects Developers Total
Population Forecasts
Mega Projects Population Curve Pro-rated to
obtain Intermediate Years
ADWEC Base Electricity Demand Forecast