Blur the Boundaries For a New Hub

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• Blur the Boundaries For a New Hub
• of Asian Sub-Regionalism
• By
• KPV Nair

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Churning the ocean - Angkor carving

• First mythical joint venture between Devas and
  Asuras , a case
• of rivals uniting for a common gain Amrita
  (Elixir) for universal hegemony

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The crises Blessings in disguise?

• Calamities come together, but some of them as
  blessings in disguise
• India realizes its infrastructural inadequacies,
  surge in road building rise in peoples income
  level and quality of life
• As far-sighted as ever, China finds new avenues
  of cheap acquisitions in energy, minerals and
  chemicals from every known source around the
  world
• Constructive capitalist culture millions wont
  have to starve for multiplying the number of
  billionaires. World opinion favours more
  inclusive growth
• Awareness of the three major threats of volatile
  energy prices, food scarcity and climate change
  UN ESCAP

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Re-defining Multilateralism

• Congrats Cambodia! Its laudable initiative
  announced on March 11. Passport holders from
  Vietnam, Laos and Thailand allowed to travel
  within the country for a month. Will strengthen
  trade, tourism and solidarity, while still
  remaining within the ASEAN and GMS groupings with
  a lot of achievements to their own credit.
• Mekong countries multiple level success in
  stark contrast with the failure of SAARC. The
  role of India and Pakistan.
• Multilateralism defies definitions. Small and
  less developed countries more aware of the need
  for additional / alternative mechanisms .

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Asias Political and Economic outlook

• Asias political and economic outlook there are
  enough reasons to be positive in general.
  Definite answers difficult when Terrorism as
  uninvited Foreign Direct Investment targeting
  potentially progressive countries.
• Forecast for India With annual exports and
  imports lower by 20- 25 until February this
  year, real estate tending to find buyers at
  prices just 30 lower, lowering commodity prices
  and idle liquidity still awaiting opportunities,
  GDP variations not to seriously affect the
  balancing of economic fundamentals. India may
  face stagnation for a time, not recession nor
  depression.
• Links between politics and economics? Plenty
  in Asia, including India and China. Remember
  Bank of Chinas I P O about 5 years back ? Even
  with nearly 35 N.P.A the offer was subscribed
  by over 200 percent at the closing in Hong Kong.

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Political and Economic outlook (contd..)

• Observers wondered, by highlighting such
  economic success, did Chinese leaders want to
  convince the common man that their administrative
  system was the ideal one for the country ?
  Chinas political strength always favourably
  impacts its economic and geo-political agenda.
  Offer of 18 billion to Thailand in the 97 crisis
  showed its leadership qualities.
• One reason for Indias temporary well being may
  be the large amount of cash that will be
  circulating during the coming general elections.
  Indias insurgency is both political and
  economic in origin.
• Recent price rise of Tea partly due to politics
  in India. Huge pay rise for govt. employees is
  economic by nature but arguably political in
  motivation.

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Lessons to learn and the way ahead

• There are many lessons to learn from the current
  crises. Are the various stimuli by the US, China
  and others anything more than a first aid
  treatment? The depth of the crises varies from
  country to country.
• The existing regional cooperative mechanisms
  provide some sense of security even to the weaker
  constituents. But it is essential for them to
  look for alternative economic alignments even
  while remaining within the larger groupings like
  SAARC and ASEAN.
• Peripheral areas of most countries are deprived
  of the prosperity seen around the Centre. Example
  Indias North East and Chinas South West
  whose per capita is only about 50 of the
  national average. In such situations
  sub-regional cooperation an effective means of
  mitigating the miseries of the crises.

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Need for a new Asian SubRegional grouping

• For the purpose of todays debate, I have chosen
  a tans-national sub-region where I have been
  personally engaged for at least ten years.
• It covers an area, unfamiliar to many, literally
  covering the Roof of the World, comprising at
  least five countries or parts thereof, namely
  Nepal, Bhutan, parts of Myanmar, China and India
  and possibly Bangladesh.

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Special features of the proposed Sub-Region

• Abode of Gods and Goddesses of Hindu and Buddhist
  pantheon, Ethnic migrations. Religious tolerance
• Origin of all the major Asian rivers with several
  lakes and mountains. Even tea originated here,
  ecologically unique.
• Tangible and intangible heritage, Part of
  Southern Silk Route, Tea Horse civilization
• Centrally located, Geographically contiguous and
  culturally convergent. India China interface
• Stunningly beautiful with endless attractions,
  most diverse in bio-resources - all inviting to
  be extensively exploited
• Could herald the much awaited Asian century.

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BCIM cooperation (Kunming Initiative)

• Aimed at sub-regional cooperation among
  Bangladesh, China,
• India and Myanmar. Despite good intentions
  the project not yet institutionalized and still
  function on track two level. The obstacles
• are many both economic and geopolitical.

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International participants at the Lhasa
conference on cooperation between Tibet and
neighbour countries 2005

The two day conference was organized by UNDP and
Chinas MOFCOM
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Border Trade between India and China at
Nathula-La

• This strategic Tibet-Sikkim
  border pass, 14,000 ft above
• sea level, was opened for
  restricted official trade in 2006.

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Picture shows flourishing Border Trade between
Ruli in Chinas Yunnan and Myanmars Muse

• With annual turnover of 830 million
  many goods sold to
• Myanmar find their way to Northeast
  India and beyond.

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Indian and Chinese participants at the K2K
conference at Dali Yunnan

• The MOU signed upgraded the conference to
  Forum level .
• Joint feasibility studies are now been
  conducted.

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West Bengal Tourism Department Corpn. at Kunming
Trade Fair in 2004

• Asia Centre facilitated this first
  ever participation with the co-operation of
  CCPIT. Visitors included many from minority
  communities.

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China Eastern Airways introduces direct flight
between Kunming and Kolkata Nov.2007

• Inauguration of the flight coincided with the
  International Travel Mart

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Signing of MOU between Indian Chamber of
Commerce and Yunnan Chamber of Commerce in
Kolkata

• The delegates from Yunnan also
  participated in
• Guwahati Trade Fair of
  Northeastern India.

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The World War II Stillwell road the original (
left ) and the reconstructed

• China is eager to reopen the historical
  road which stretches from Ledo in Assam to
  Kunming through Myanmar for opening trade and
  tourism route to Eastern India and Bangladesh.
  The project is yet to take off due to Sino -
  Indian differences. Enormous potential as an
  economic corridor making Asian triangle.

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Thank You