French Nat. Report (Mercator Oc

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French Nat. Report (Mercator Océan)Planned
future activities and examples of demonstration

• Eric Dombrowsky

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Outline

• Major achievements during GoDAE
• The present capacity
• Services developed (examples)
• The next phase

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Outline

• Major achievements during GoDAE
• The present capacity
• Services developed (examples)
• The next phase

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Major achievements during GoDAEfrom 1997 Fort de
France meeting (1/2)

• Mercator Océan established
• Legal entity owned by CNES, CNRS, IRD, IFREMER,
  Météo-France and SHOM
• Mercator Océan is an operational, global,
  real-time ocean forecast service provider
• Its activity follows 3 main axes
• Exploit and maintain real-time numerical ocean
  forecast systems
• Exploitation, production, expertise and
  qualification
• Maintenance
• Ensure service level as required by its users,
  and promotes the development of downstream
  services at the Global scale
• Dedicated/generic services
• Communication, outreach
• Prepare service evolutions to maintain service
  quality close to the state of the art
• Innovation, development, integration of new
  functionalities
• Prototyping,

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Major achievements during GoDAEfrom 1997 Fort de
France meeting (2/2)

• System suite developed and operated
• North Atlantic Med eddy resolving (routine)
• Global eddy permitting (routine) and low
  resolution (routine)
• ? Global eddy resolving (demo in April 2008)
• Methodology defined, and tools implemented for
  assessment and validation
• GoDAE Metrics
• Links with data centers developed
• CORIOLIS for the In Situ observing system
• SSALTO/DUACS for the altimetry
• Météo-France for the SST (to evolve within
  MyOcean) and Forcing
• Connection with other operational oceanography
  centers established
• Within EU-GMES UKMO, NERSC, INGV, DMI, DFO
• Bilateral collaborations
• MOON (Med sea), GOAPP (DFO/EC Canada),
• International
• GoDAE, EuroGOOS,

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The model configurations

• 1 code NEMO (OPA9LIM)
• 1 grid all the configurations are on the same
  ORCA (tripolar) grid
• One single input dataset initialization and
  forcing interpolated inline
• Some of these configurations are shared with the
  scientific and operational community
• ORCA025 Drakkar and Glorys Project, Barnier et
  al.
• UKMO, CMCC, EC, DFO,

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The assimilation scheme SAM2(Kalman Filter type)
SAM2v1 SEEK filter using multivariate 3D modes
Model initialisation
SAM2 kernel
SEEK Analysis
Control Space
Barotropic
?U, ?V
Modal Space (Reduced Space)
Baroclinic
3D modes acting on 3D space
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Outline

• Achievements (system development) during GoDAE
• The present capacity
• Services developed (examples)
• The next phase

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Several model configurations operated for several
uses

• Regional eddy resolving (2002?)
• North Atlantic Mediterranean
• operational 5-7 km, OPA8, ROOI assimilation of
  alti. T/S and SST
• From April 2008 1/12 (6.5 km at 45N),
  NEMO/LIM, SEEK assim. of alti, T/S and SST, daily
  fcst
• Target mesoscale upper ocean, downscaling to
  smaller regional and coastal regions,
• Global eddy permitting (09/2005 ?)
• operational ¼, OPA8, ROOI assimilation of alti
  only
• From April 2008 ¼, NEMO/LIM, SEEK assim. of
  alti, T/S and SST
• Has been operated in demo mode during Mersea
  TOP2 April?Sept 2007
• Target global ocean climate monitoring, biology,
  sea ice, reanalysis,
• Global low resolution (05/2004 ?)
• Today 2, OPA8, SEEK assim of alti, T/S and SST
• Target oceanic initial conditions for coupled
  seasonal prediction, reanalysis
• Global eddy resolving (to be operational at the
  end of MyOcean)
• NEMO/LIMSEEK 1/12
• Has been demonstrated in April 2008
• Target Global Marine Core Service and
  downscaling to European regions
• Northeastern Atlantic high resolution (to be
  operational at the end of MyOcean)

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System performance SLAGlobal 1/4 (Left) versus
Global 1/12 (Right)



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System performance T and S biasesGlobal 1/4
(Left) versus Global 1/12 (Right)
Temperature
Temperature
/-0.5
/-0.5
Salinity
Salinity
/-0.05 Psu
/-0.05 Psu
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System performance T and S RMSDIFGlobal 1/4
(Left) versus Global 1/12 (Right)
Temperature
Temperature
0.5
0.5
Salinity
Salinity
0.1 Psu
0.1 Psu
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T/S Global (1/4) overall performances1-year
average (2007). Left Bias, Right RMSdiff
Temp
Temp
Sal
Sal
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Mercator 1/12 - 20m salinity - April 29 2008
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Outline

• Achievements (system development) during GoDAE
• The present capacity
• Services developed (examples)
• The next phase

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Use of Mercator products for Navy operations
acoustically interpretive products
The French Navy (SHOM) has been developing
Operational Ocean Forecating Systems since 1990
the SOAP program These systems rely now on
Mercator products
Thickness of the surface duct
Exploitability of the surface duct Indicator
green good conditions, Red no conditions
Sea Surface Temperature From MERCATOR system
From Jourdan et al.
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S1 Delineated eddies and frontsFrench Navy
product based on Mercator
Front and eddies with potential acoustic impact
detected by Navy forecasters and delivered to
Navy headquarters for operations at sea
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Expertise added byMercator Ocean Forecasters

• Example of Real-time bulletin
• 29 March 2006 in the Gulf of Mexico
• Assimilation
• 2 on 3 Sat on duty, and some interest area are
  almost not covered.
• No in-situ observations assimilated .
• Model
• The model is a bit late, with the persistence of
  a small residual error in the south of the LCE.
• The LC stream is confirmed by satellite SSH map
  and AVHRR data.
• The LCE is well located compared to AVHRR data.
• Overall situation
• On north
• The new LCE is moving westerly along the sigsbee
  escarpment while the second LCE is virtually
  stationary.
• On south
• The CARE is crossing the YS, and increase the
  stability and intensity of the LC, this one is
  retracted (mode 1)

Date of the lastest tracks
Number of tracks
On duty during all the period
Nowcast on March 29th
25 March
6
JASON
13 March
0
ENVISAT
24 March
4
GFO
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Monitoring surface current to follow drifting
objects
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Indicator WEB service
http//www.mersea.eu.org/Indicators-with-B4G.html

• E.g., SST monitoring in European waters

Soulat and Messal, 2008
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Tropical Cyclone MonitoringExample RAMASSUN
(May 2008)
Guess cyclone fate from Ocean near surface heat
content

• Bulletin Input
• Displacement from (1ON 130E) towards (40N120E)
• Ocean bulletin
• significant intensification in the next 48 hr
• significant weakening north of 20N

Buarque, 2008
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Tropical Cyclone DEAN (August 2008)
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Cyclone NARGIS (May 2008)
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Observing systems impact studiesImpact of
altimetry on analysis and forecast accuracy

• Results of an Observing System Experiment (OSE)
• All experiment
• North Atlantic Med eddy resolving system
  (1/15)
• Multivariate assimilation of SLASSTT/S profiles
• 1 year integration (2004)

SLA RMSDIFF No altimetry Jason only Jason Envisat JasonEnvisatGFO JasonEnvisatGFOT/P
7-day Forecast (cm) 10,27 9,67 8,95 8,62
Nowcast (cm) 9,15 8,36 7,50 7,08
Hindcast (cm) 12,94 8,38 7,07 6,18 5,63
Benkiran, 2008
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S5 Observing systems impact studiesImpact of
altimeter data coverage
Benkiran, 2008
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Observing systems impact studies Impact of ARGO
(low resolution global)
Number of observations
ARGO deployment start 2002 Now 3000 floats
Global Ocean,Salinity 7-day forecast misfit
NINO 4 box (Trop. Pacific), Salinity 7-day
forecast misfit
NINO 4 box (Trop. Pacific), Temperature 7-day
forecast misfit
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Outline

• Achievements (system development) during GoDAE
• The present capacity
• Services developed (examples)
• The next phase

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Future developments

• System
• Global eddy resolving (1/12)
• Enhanced capacity on North Atlantic Med
• High resolution (1/36) in the Iberian Biscay
  Irish region (IBIROOS)
• Collaboration with Spain
• Services
• RT
• Transition to operational services within MyOcean
  ?2010
• Daily service of short-term forecast O(1 week)
  GLO1/4NATL1/12
• Weekly assimilation and medium range forecast O(2
  weeks)
• Operational backup at UKMO for global and
  NATLMED
• Reanalysis
• GLORYS 20-years reanalysis (altimetry era)
  within MyOcean ?2010
• Longer reanalysis collaboration with ECMWF