Urbanization Trends in Ohio

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Urbanization Trends in Ohio

• Dr. Elena Irwin
• Department of Agricultural, Environmental and
  Development Economics
• The Ohio State University

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Outline of Presentation

• Overview of population and land use trends in
  Ohio
• What can we conclude about the prevalence of
  sprawl in Ohio?
• Causes of sprawl
• Policy implications for exurban areas

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Population Trends in Ohio
Ohio ranks 7th in population among U.S. states
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Population Growth In Ohio

• State-wide population increased by 4.7 between
  1990-2000
• Population decline in most urban core counties
  and many rural areas
• Rapid population growth in suburban and
  rural-fringe counties

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Township Population Growth and Urban Decline
Source U.S. Census Bureau, 1960, 1970, 1980,
1990, 2000 Decennial Census
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Land Use Trends in Ohio 1982-1987
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Urban Land Growth and Population Change
Although Ohio ranks 8th in urban land growth
(1992-97), it ranks 22nd in population change
(1990-2000)
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• Ohios Growth in Comparison to the Region
• Among the Rust Belt states, Ohio experienced
  the second largest percentage increase in urban
  land (11.2) but recorded the second lowest
  population increase during the 1990s (4.7).

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Spatial Patterns of Land Use Change
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Farmland Loss
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Correlation between and Urbanization and Farmland
Loss?

• Is Urban Land Conversion directly correlated to
  farmland loss?
• Ratio of Ag to Urban
• Land Conversion
• Calculated by dividing loss of agricultural land
  by increase in urban land

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Urbanization Relative to Population Change for
Metro Areas
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Changes in Ohios Settlement Pattern
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Population Density Change in Ohios Landscape
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• Population Density Change in Ohios Landscape
• From 1970 to 2000, Ohios landscape has
  experienced a large increase in low density
  exurban areas and a large decrease in very low
  density rural areas

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Population Concentration Index Persons per Urban
Acre
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Conclusions based on these statistics

• Sprawl, as defined by low density development and
  population decentralization, is increasing in
  Ohio
• Sprawl is not limited to urban-rural fringe
  areas, but is the most noticeable in these areas
• Certain aspects of sprawl may be a temporary
  phenomenon (low population density)
• Sprawl is highly correlated with farmland loss in
  urban-rural fringe counties, but not in rural
  counties

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Hypothesized Causes of Sprawl

• Individual choices
• Flight from urban blight
• Bigger house and lot
• Rural amenities
• Reliance on car

• Government policies
• Fragmented government
• Road-building
• Zoning
• Housing policies

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The Transportation Connection

• Urbanization has always followed transportation
  routes (and vice versa).
• The first suburbanization occurred in the
  mid-1800s as railroads and streetcar lines were
  built from central city to outskirts of city.
• Road building increases accessibility to outer
  areas
• The largest increase in Medina County population
  (39) and the largest decrease in Cuyahoga
  Countys population (13) occurred in the 10-year
  period after the opening of I-71. (ODOT)

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73 of all urban land cover in Ohio is located
within 5 miles of a highway. (Reece and Irwin,
2002)
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But roads are not the only reason households are
moving out

• Quality of public services and schools
• Better schools, safety, transportation, health
  care, fire and police protection pull population
  outward.
• Perception of urban ills pushes population
  outward.
• More is better
• Desire for bigger house, bigger yard
• Land is cheaper in outer areas therefore, can
  afford bigger house and bigger yard.
• More income, more house?
• The rural ideal
• More open space, more privacy, better community,
  sense of place, less taxes, less government.

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Explaining Suburbanization in Franklin County

• Why do households move from the city to the
  suburbs?
• Natural evolution Households move out as income
  increases
• Public services and schools Households move out
  because they are seeking improved schools and
  safety (Morrow-Jones, 2002)
• What is the relative importance of income vs.
  services?
• The relative effects matter for public policy

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How do these factors influence the probability
that households will stay in or move to the City
of Columbus?
(Bayoh, Irwin, and Haab, 2002)

• Income effect 1 increase in household income
  decreases the probability that a household will
  stay in or move to Columbus by 0.4
• Crime effect 1 decrease in Columbus crime rate
  increases the probability that a household will
  stay in or move to Columbus by 0.3.
• School effect 1 increase in Columbus school
  quality increases the probability that a
  household will stay in or move to Columbus by
  6.8.

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Does Fragmented Government Influence Sprawl?

• Hypothesis Lack of coordination among local
  jurisdictions creates spillover effects that
  result in greater sprawl.
• For example zoning policies

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Medina County The effect of large-lot zoning on
the pattern of residential land use conversion

• Results show that township large-lot zoning (3
  acre minimum lot size) significantly reduced the
  probability that a land parcel would be
  developed.
• Question How would a change in zoning in one
  township influence the countywide pattern of
  development?

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Impacts of Sprawl What are the costs and
benefits?
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Costs and benefits differ across different groups

• Households
• Existing residents
• New residents
• Landowners
• Farmers
• Developers
• Government
• Community

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Private vs. Public Costs and Benefits

• Private costs/benefits
• Those costs or benefits that accrue to
  individuals that are directly involved in the
  land development process
• Public costs/benefits
• Those costs and benefits that impact others that
  are external to the process

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Costs

• Private
• Developers cost of purchasing and developing
  land
• New residents cost of purchasing house

• Public
• Governments cost of providing additional
  community services
• Community changes
• Loss of rural lands
• Increase in congestion
• Conflicts between new and old residents

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Benefits

• Private
• Landowners revenue from selling land
• Developers profits
• New residents ability to have housing location
  of choice

• Public
• New economic growth in the community
• Additional tax revenues
• New jobs
• More retail opportunities and services in
  community

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Weighing Benefits and Costs

• Many of the benefits of sprawl accrue to
  individuals
• Low density, semi-rural living
• Developer profits
• Many of the costs of sprawl accrue to the
  community
• Cost of community services
• Loss of open space

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Sprawl Solutions?
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Command and Control Policies

• Government determines land uses that are
  permissible
• Zoning
• Urban growth boundaries
• Challenges
• Legal issues
• Unintended consequences

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Incentive-Based Policies

• Government provides incentives to direct growth
  in desired locations and pattern
• Urban service boundaries
• Preferential tax assessment for agriculture
• Getting the price right policies incorporate the
  full costs and full benefits of individuals
  choices
• Impact fees
• Purchase of development rights
• Challenge getting the incentives right so that
  the desired outcome is attained

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For More Information on Population and Land Use
Trends and Data in Ohio

• Visit the Exurban Change website at
• http//aede.ag.ohio-state.edu/programs/exurbs/