Disasters and conflicts: challenges for sustainable development

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Disasters and conflictschallenges for
sustainable development

• Debarati Guha-Sapir
• Professor, Louvain School of Public Health
• CRED, Brussels
• May 26, 2009

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of
disasters
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Disasters global trends 1900-2008
Source EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database
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Climate-related disasters comparedto geophysical
disasters

• Geophysical disasters follow a relatively stable
  trend

Source EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database
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Worldwide victims per disaster type1960-2008
Source EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database
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Disaster impact distribution by region1989-2008
Number of disaster events by region ()
Disaster mortality by region ()
Economic damage costs by region ()
Source EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database
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Severe floods and diseases

• FECAL-ORAL diseases

• VECTOR-BORNE diseases

• Malaria,
• Dengue/DHF
• West Nile Fever
• Chikungunya
• RODENT-BORNE diseases
• Hantavirus,
• Leptospirosis

• Diarrhea
• Cholera,
• Rotavirus
• Escherichia Coli
• Salmonella
• Shigella
• Campylobacter
• Non diarrheal diseases
• Typhoid/Paratyphoid fever
• Hepatitis A/E

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Jakarta 2007 floods study on leptospirosisA
time series (Nov 1st 2006 to May 31st 2007)
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CHOLERA RISK PROFILE
Cholera campaign
Cholera reported in 1997, 1999, 2003
Tsunami area, 26 cases in 1996
Cholera reported in 1997-1998
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Poverty and civil conflicts
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Poverty and armed conflict

• 90 in low- and lower-middle-income countries
• As incomes rise, risk of armed conflict
• Why the link?
• Armed conflicts is development in reverse
• Poor countries lack resources to address
  grievances
• Poor countries have weak security forces to deter
  or crush rebellions

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Direct vs. Indirect causes of death
Continuous increase in non-violence related
deaths Continuous decrease in violence related
deaths First phase direct gt indirect
VIOLENCE Second phase direct lt indirect
NON-VIOLENCE
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Internally displaced people Dec. 2008
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Internally Displaced 2008

• Internally displaced by conflict 26m
• Most affected continent Africa 11.6m
• Countries generating displacement 24
• Countries gt 200,000 newly displaced
• Philippines, Sudan, Kenya, D R
• Congo, Iraq, Pakistan, Somalia
• Colombia, Sri Lanka, India

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Refugees

• In 2008, there were about 1 million new refugees.
• Developing nations, with the least means, host
  80 of refugees.
• Refugees are best off compared to IDPs and
  residents

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Natural Disasters in Conflicts(Source CRED,
2008)
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Epidemics in Conflicts (1993 2008)
(Source CRED, 2008)
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Sustainable development concerns

• Environmental degradation (migration,
  settlements)
• Increase in climate extremes
• Unemployed , orphaned, uneducated,
  disenfranchised youth
• Instability is fertile terrain for fundamentalism
• Moral and ethical imperatives

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Science and research needed

• Research on use social programming to stabilise
  post conflict communities.
• Research on building evidence on socio-economic
  impact of climate disasters and move from
  stratospheric to local.
• Establish research and training in affected
  regions for sustainable disaster preparedness.

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THANK YOU
CONTACT CRED 30, Clos Chapelle-aux-Champs 12
00 Brussels Belgium Tel [phone]/Fax-344
1 E-Mail Debarati.Guha_at_uclouvain.be www.cred.b
e