CETERIS PARIBUS SPATIAL COMPLEXITY SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM

1
CETERIS PARIBUS SPATIAL
COMPLEXITY
SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM
Peter Nijkamp 28 November 2006 As far as the
laws of mathematics refer to reality they are not
certain and as far as they are certain, they do
not refer to reality. (Albert Einstein)
2
A new challenge

• What is the space-economy?
• First law of geography (Tobler)
• Gravity law (Newton)
• Simplicity versus complexity

3
Ceteris paribus and the space-economy

• Complex discovery tour and simple assumptions
• Cf. maps and models
• Abstraction
• Ceteris paribus (1311!)
• Marshalls partial equilibrium analysis
• Partial cause-effect relationships (Black Box)

4
Spatial interaction in open systems

• Space time interaction
• Spatio-temporal autocorrelation
• Connectivity in network structures
• Evolution and dissipative structures (Prigogine)
• Endogeneity and causality specification
• Complex spatial dynamics and ceteris paribus

5
Spacial-economic complexity

• Principles of complexity theory
• Path dependency versus feedbacks
• Bifurcation, catastrophe, chaos, synergetics
• Complex solution trajectories
• Drivers resilience
• sustainability
• evolutionary principles
• - Volterra-Lotka
• - predator-prey
• - May
• - symbiosus
• - niche
• - self-organisation

6
Spacial-economic complexity (2)

• Search for behaviourial paradigm
• - optimizer
• - bounded rationality
• - learning principles (survival)
• - simulation

Learning is ..a growth, where every act of
knowledge develops the learner, thus making him
capable of constituting ever more and more
complex objectivities. (Husserl)
7
Principles of spacial-economic equilibrium

• Mathematical rigor rigor
  mortis
• CGE
• Lösch
• Isard
• Leontief
• Kaldors Okun Memorial lecture
• Interactive economics?

8
The methodology of spatial economics revisited

• Evolutionary ecology
• Specification analysis
• Artificial intelligence
• - computational neural networks
• - self-organised criticality
• - adaptive learning models
• Counterfactional analysis
• Value transfer / meta-analysis
• Micro-behavioural basis
• Modelling as cognitive science?
• The mecca of the economist lies in economic
  biology.
• (Alfred Marshall, 1896)