Dave Sauchyn, Ph'D', P'Geo'

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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in the
Prairie Provinces
Dave Sauchyn, Ph.D., P.Geo. C-CIARN
Prairies Prairie Adaptation Research
Collaborative Senate Committee on Agriculture
and ForestryOttawa, December, 2002
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http//www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/index.cgi
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Projections (broad generalizations) for the
future climate of the Prairie Provinces
Temperature increasing, greater in winter than
summer, greater at night than during
day Precipitation great uncertainty, annually
small increase to significant
decrease Evaporation increased Soil moisture
decreased Growing season increased Atmospheric
CO2 increased Extreme events increased
frequency and magnitude Hydrology increased
variability, earlier peak flows
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The Canadian Plains
Natural and socio-economic systems aresensitive
to climatic variability, climaticchange and
extreme hydroclimatic events
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Land Cover
Soil
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PFRA, 2001
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PFRA, 2001
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PFRA, 2001
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PFRA, 2001
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Adaptation Options
Share the Loss
Bear the Loss
Structural, Technological
Modify the Events
Legislative, Regulatory, Financial
Prevent the Effects
Institutional, Administrative
Market-based
Research
On-site Operations
Education, Behavioural
Change Use
Avoid the Impacts
Change Location
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Impacts and Adaptations in Forestry

• Major impacts are likely to be
• changes in forest productivity
• increases in fires and insect attack
• changes in occurrence of commercially-important
  species
• Sustainable forest management has been shown to
  be able to adapt, but...
• Requires stronger science regarding impacts,
  ecosystem responses
• Requires integration of climate change impacts
  with those of other land use activities

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Wet soils
Medium soils
Dry soils

• Dry soils productivity declines in the future
• Medium soils productivity increases, then
  declines
• Wet soils productivity increases in the future
• Note Analysis assumes soils fully recharged
  following snowmelt

Source Johnston 2001
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Mean increase in fire season severity under 2 X
CO2 (Flannigan et al. 2001)
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Prairie Agricultural Landscapes (PFRA 2000 32-33)
Severe and widespread erosion could still occur
during extreme climatic events and especially
during a period of years with back-to-back
droughts.
Soil eroded from the conventional and minimum
till plots in 1990 two events was 70 and 73,
respectively, of the total soil eroded during the
operation of the plots from 1986 to 1993.
Very severe wind and water erosion is dominated
by infrequent occurrences of when highly erosive
events impact exposed soil. Such events may only
happen once during the farming lifetime of an
individual farmer, making it difficult to justify
the expense and inconvenience of many soil
conservation practices.
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Adaptation to Climatic Variability A projected
increase in climate variability, including more
frequent drought and major hydroclimatic events,
is the most ominous climate change scenario. It
is a more formidable and complex challenge than
the adaptation of practices, processes and
infrastructure to long-term climate trends. More
extreme climate anomalies are more likely to
exceed natural and engineering thresholds beyond
which the impacts of climate are much more severe.
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Near Outlook, Saskatchewan, May 2, 2002
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Soil drifting near Oyen, Alberta, May 5, 2002
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Agriculture Drought Risk Management Plan for
Alberta
Ad hoc responses to an existing drought crisis
may lead to untimely and costly short-term
solutions. In contrast, a risk management
approach to drought allows an immediate,
effective response during a drought crisis, and
also reduces drought impacts over the long term
through planning and preparedness.
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Social Cohesion SurveyHow Seriousness is
Climate Change?
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Social Cohesion Survey What are you doing to
adapt to Adjust to Climate Change?
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Climate Impacts and Adaptation, Prairies

• The Prairies Provinces are projected to
  experience the greatest increases in temperatures
  as a result of future climate changes of any
  region in Canada.
• The Prairie Provinces are characterized by
  diverse ecosystems, high climatic variability,
  and key aspects of the economy that are
  climatically sensitive.
• The major direct impact of global warming in the
  Prairies Provinces will likely be increased
  aridity over a larger area.

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• Higher temperatures and a longer growing season
  will potentially support crop production over a
  larger area than at present, however, decreased
  soil moisture and water supplies may limit these
  opportunities.
• Projected shifts in climate variability and the
  frequency of extreme events would significantly
  impact the people and economy of the Prairie
  Provinces. Most climate models forecast and
  increase in the frequency and severity of
  drought.
• The Rocky Mountains are the primary source of
  water for most of the population of Saskatchewan
  and Alberta. Changes in the extent of snow and
  glaciers will affect the timing and storage of
  runoff and require adaptation of water management
  practices.

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• The impacts of a warmer drier conditions on the
  western boreal forest (increased fire frequency
  and intensity increases in insect outbreaks, and
  changes in productivity) will impact the ability
  of the forest industry to harvest timber and will
  challenge provincial forest protection programs
  and budgets.
• Prairie people, and especially farmers, have a
  relatively large capacity to adapt to climate
  change because of a history of adaptation to
  climatic variability, including periodic drought
  and floods. Nonetheless, rural communities are
  vulnerable.
• Planning of adaptation to climate change requires
  improved understanding of the process of
  adaptation. Research is needed on the cost of
  both impacts and adaptation, and the social
  aspects of climate change.