Climate change strategy: an issue of global security

1
Climate change strategy an issue of global
security

• Michael Zammit Cutajar
• (former head, United Nations Climate Change
  Secretariat)
• San Rossore, 15 July 2003

2
Outline

• What is the problem?
• Should we be worried?
• What can be done?
• What are the obstacles?
• What is happening internationally?
• The Rio Convention (1992)
• The Kyoto Protocol (1997)
• What might happen next?

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The problem a creeping catastrophe 

• The Earths climate is a global resource
• It is being destabilized by the growth of human
  activity more people, more products, more GHGs
• NB energy (mis)use, deforestation, intensive
  agriculture, soil depletion
• 20th century hottest for Northern Hemisphere in
  last 1,000 years (WMO, July 2003)
• Global mean temperature projected to rise in 21st
  C. by up to 5.8 deg. C, faster than in last
  10,000 years (IPCC, 2001)

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The problem (contd.)Inequitable impact

• Impact of global warming is hardest on poor,
  rural people, who can least resist
• Its time frame is too remote to distract rich,
  urban political élite from pursuit of upward
  mobility
• Climate change a new factor of global inequity

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2. Should we be worried?

• Hardening evidence that climate change
  additional to natural variability - results from
  human activity (IPCC, 2001)
• Sea-level rise, threatening millions of coastal
  and island people
• Extreme weather events more frequent
• (severe storms, floods, droughts, heat-stroke
  deaths )
• Generally negative impacts on food production,
  shifts in production zones
• Migration of insect-borne diseases
• Migration of threatened people
• Climate change a new factor of global
  insecurity

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What can be done?A. Policies

• Strengthen resistance to climate variability
• Prepare for adaptation to climate change
  (integrate in economic programmes and development
  cooperation)
• Store and sequester carbon
• (forest and soil management, capture in empty
  oil wells )
• Limit emissions of GHGs through changed
  production AND consumption patterns
• (energy efficiency, energy economy, switch to
  cleaner fuels, smart transport, technological
  innovation )

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What can be done? (contd.)B. Strategy

• Only a global approach will succeed
• growth of Southern emissions will swamp
  limitation of Northern emissions (if there is any
  )
• In a multilateral framework for sustainable
  development that combines efficiency and equity
• And recognizes that developing country emissions
  need to grow to provide for their material
  well-being

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4. What are the obstacles?

• Residual scientific uncertainty excessive
  optimism
• Economic defensiveness focus on costs not
  opportunities
• Ignoring cost of inaction
• Short-term politics do not address long-term
  problem
• Transatlantic USEU cultural divide in
  attitudes of Government and business Kyoto is
  a polemical symbol
• North-South recrimination
• Rationality and social responsibility may not
  suffice
• A greater effort of education and persuasion is
  needed to instill urgency, even fear!!

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What is happening?A. The Convention (UNFCCC,
Rio 1992)

• Recognition of a new global problem (on UN agenda
  only since 1988)
• Long-term objective plus policy options (no
  prescriptions, not  Green Charter )
• Cooperation along a learning curve
• Sharing information, raising awareness,
  developing common measurements
• Exploring solutions (technological options,
  forest and land management, adaptation)
• Some financial and technical support for
  developing countries (NB GEF)

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What is happening? (contd.)B. The Kyoto Protocol
(1997)

• First step towards limiting emissions from
  industrialized countries
• Architecture (market-oriented,  made in USA )
• Cap and trade project-based mechanisms, incl.
  Clean Development Mechanism controlled use of
  sinks
• Initial targets
• For 2008-2012 learning period
• Broader and deeper targets to be negotiated from
  2005

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The Kyoto Protocol State of play

• Entry into force involves a double trigger
• 55 States must ratify there are now 111.
• But also States accounting for 55 of CO2
  emissions of industrialized countries in 1990
  there are 44.2.
• So Kyoto Protocol is not in force.
• USA (36.7) and Australia (2.1) have rejected
  ratification (because of cost, no developing
  country targets)
• Entry into force now depends on Russias 17.4.
  Which way will Moscow go??? Position unclear.

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What next?A. Fragmentation

• Fragmented public systems
• EU will pursue its Kyoto targets, though its
  emissions are still growing
• Some US States might enact targets
• There may be bilateral deals, promoted by USA
• Fragmented corporate schemes (targets, trading,
  e.g. Shell, BP)

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What next? (contd.)B. Convergence?

• A multilateral framework is needed
• Exhortation (of Russia, USA, China, India) is not
  a strategy
• Global corporations need global rules
• Need for political deal, with or without Kyoto
• Need to engage super-economy USA modify
  time/cost factors in Kyoto?
• Need to engage big developing countries design
  differentiated commitments allowing for emissions
  growth and encouraging policy/technology shifts?
• With or without Kyoto - need to think ahead
• Opportunity in Milano (UNFCCC COP 9, December
  2003)

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Climate change strategy an issue of global
security

• Info sources
• www.unfccc.int
• www.wmo.ch
• www.ipcc.ch