Simplistic spatially explicit models of salmonid

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Simplistic spatially explicit models of
salmonid demographics and population
genetic structure. Worth the effort? Chris
Jordan NMFS/NWFSC/CBD CRI
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Outline - Motivation The usual -
Model What? - Results Squint - Conclusions
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Motivation - Recovery planning -At
issue, risk factors to Salmon ESUs -
Intrinsic - Extrinsic - Goal (Ultimate) -
Manipulate risk factors favorably for SESUs -
Goal (Proximate) - Understand the risk factors
sensitivity to intrinsic and extrinsic
sources of risk
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Population Dynamical Model - To explore
population dynamics of salmonids - Demographics
and Genetics - Life cycle based metapopulation
model - Dynamics from transition probabilites
between life stages - Subpopulations within a
larger population - Spatially explicit -
Environmental variability - Decadal productivity
cycles - Stochasticity - Track subpopulation
density and distribution of genetic markers
within subpops - Mean subpopulation
density(t) - Mean allele frequency over 10 loci
with 10 alleles - Assess demographic and
genetic structure - Extinction probability
(local quasi) - Genetic Distance (Neis)
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Explore the consequences of straying (stray
rate) on population factors (Extinction
probability, Genetic isolation)
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Stray Matrix for p 0.95
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Extinction probabilities as a function of
Stray rate
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Conclusions -Simple models can give
interesting non-intuitive results
quickly -Have value in guiding our thinking
about management issues in listed ESUs