The North Carolina Wood Chip Study

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The North Carolina Wood Chip Study
Rex H. Schaberg Daniel D. Richter Duke
University Nicholas School of the Environment
Frederick W. Cubbage P.B. Aruna North
Carolina State University Department of
Forestry
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OVERVIEW

• Context for Wood Chip Study
• The Economic Assessment
• The Ecological Assessment
• Integration of Models
• Summary and Conclusions

3
STUDY MOTIVATION

• North Carolina
• 31 million acres (1.4 US)
• Contains 2.6 US forestland
• Contains 3.8 US timberlands
• N.C. timberlands 18.7 million acres, 1990
• N.C. participating in the South-wide expansion of
  demand for timber products

FIA data
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ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTIONSN.C. FOREST PRODUCTS
TOURISM

• Forest Products
• Value of Shipments 16.4 billion
• Lumber and Furniture 11.8 billion
• Paper and Allied Products 4.5 billion
• Employment 144,000 people
• 121,000 Lumber and Furniture
• 23,000 Paper and Allied Products
• N.C. Tourism 8.4 billion

Aruna et al. 1998
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SOUTHERN PULPWOOD SECTOR

• Southern Region Leading Roundwood Product (48)
• Hardwood Pulp Increased 27 from 1992-1995,
  Reaching 568 mil. cu. ft.
• Southeastern Pulpwood Hardwood Component
  Increased from 25 to 32 during 1983-1995

Johnson 1996
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NORTH CAROLINA PULPWOOD

• N.C. Pulpwood Production Increased 87 from 1979
  - 1997
• N.C. 1995 Pulp Production
• 332 mil. cu. ft.
• 40 of NC Timber Product Output
• Hardwoods 42 Total (138 Mil. cu. ft.)
• 5 Principal Pulp Mills, 18 Satellite Chip Mills
  (9 Satellite Mills since 1990)
• 1996 Exports 275,000 Cords

Brown 1998
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N.C. WOOD CHIP STUDY

• 1996 Report of the Governors Task Force on
  Forest Sustainability
• Southern Center for Sustainable Forests (SCSF)
• 1997 Governor Hunt Directs N.C. Department of
  Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) to
  Report on Technical Issues Relating to Chip Mills

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N.C. WOOD CHIP STUDY

• 1998 DENR Awards Study to Southern Center for
  Sustainable Forests
• North Carolina State University
• Duke University
• NC DENR

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PRINCIPAL STUDY QUESTION

• Will Expansion of Chip Mill Technology in NC
  Result in
• Changes in Competition for Materials Among Forest
  Product Sectors
• Land-Use Incompatibilities Between Forest
  Products and Tourism Sectors
• Undesirable Long-Run Ecological Consequences

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STUDY CONTEXT

• Wood Chips are Part of a Larger Continuum of
  Forest Products
• Integrated Component of Harvest Merchandising
• Not an Isolated Product
• Forest Harvests Are One Among Many Impacts
  Affecting the NC Landscape

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SETTING BASELINES

• What is the Base Period Against which to Contrast
  Changes?
• What Assumptions About
• NC Demographic Trends
• Timber Utilization Trends
• Other Land-Use Trends

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SCSF PRINCIPAL METHODS

• Integrated Study
• Economic and Ecological Elements
• Ensure Public and Stakeholder Participation
• Primary Technical Components
• Review of Prior Research
• Collect Descriptive Field Data
• Computer Simulation Models
• Economic
• Ecological

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INTEGRATED STUDY DESIGN

• Two Crucial Components
• Economic Analysis
• Ecological Assessment
• Research Findings Will Exist Along a Gradient

KNOWN LIKELY UNKNOWN
EFFECTS EFFECTS EFFECTS
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TRANSPARENT COMMUNICATIONS

• Internal Communications
• Investigator Meetings on Study Objectives
• Advisory Committee
• Representatives of Stakeholder Groups
• Public Forums
• Public Meetings
• Third-Party Facilitator
• Open-Door Policy for Suggestions

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THE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

• Current Status of Forest Resource
• Forest Product Industry Trends
• Timber Tourism Trade-Offs
• Local Community Impacts
• Nonmarket Values

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THE FOREST PRODUCTS INDUSTRY

• Structure and Trends in the Forest Products
  Industry
• Changes in Technology
• Changes in Materials Merchandising
• Purchaser Trends Domestic Foreign
• Relate Trends to Demand for Chip Mill Products

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CURRENT FOREST STATUS

• Forest Extent (Area)
• Forest Inventory (Volume Species)
• Timber Growth Removals (Stocks)
• Timber Supply (Availability)
• Net Growth
• Landowner Objectives

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DATA AND MODELS

• Primary Timber Data FIA 1990
• Timber Products Output Updates
• Tax Revenue Data
• Industry Data
• Economic Models
• IMPLAN
• Subregional Timber Supply Model (SRTS)

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OWNERSHIP AVAILABILITY

• NC Forests
• Industrial Forests (12)
• NIPF Ownerships (76)
• NIPF Owners
• 700,000 Private Owners
• 58 Own 100 Acres or Less
• NIPF Chip Mill Issues
• Revenue Opportunities
• Stand Improvement Opportunities
• Changes in Procurement Strategies

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TIMBER vs. TOURISMTRADE-OFFS

• Effects on State County Revenues
• SIC Data Analysis
• Effects on Infrastructure and Amenities
• Spatially Explicit Analysis
• Areas of Intensive Recreational Use
• Areas of Substantial Timber Procurement
• Areas of Overlap

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LOCAL COMMUNITY EFFECTS

• State and Local Policies
• Infrastructure
• Roads and Traffic
• Health and Safety
• Community Opinions
• Noise, Aesthetics

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NONMARKET VALUES

• Identification of Positive (Negative) Off-Site
  Environmental Effects
• Water Quality or Water Quantity
• Wildlife Values (Game, Nongame)
• Forest Structure
• Amenity Values

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THE ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT

• Historical Context
• NC Agricultural Legacy
• Stand Level Effects
• Regeneration
• Water Quality
• Wildlife Effects
• Cumulative Effects

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STAND LEVEL EFFECTS

• Potential Impacts
• Biomass Removal
• Changes in Avg. Rotational Age
• Water Temperature, Sediment
• Wildlife
• Game Species
• Nongame Species
• Threatened and Endangered Species

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CUMULATIVE ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS

• Aggregate Measures of Water Quality
• Landscape Fragmentation
• Connectivity of Genetic Resources
• Plant Community
• Wildlife

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ECOLOGICAL METHODS

• Prior Published Research
• Collection of Descriptive Field Data
• Computer Models
• Wildlife Distribution Models
• Landscape Ecology Models
• Integrate Chip Mills Within Landscape Context
• Shifting Patterns of Land-Use, Timber Harvest
  Population Density

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ITERATIVE MODEL INTEGRATION

• 1 Timber Processing Market Impacts (3)
• 2 Demographic Estimates (3) (5) (6) (7)
• 3 SRTS Est. Timber Demand (4)
• 4 Forest Stand Simulation (5) (6) (7)
• 5 Wildlife Models (6) (7)
• 6 Recreational Benefit-Cost (1) (2)
• 7 Nonmarket Benefits (1)

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SUMMARY

• NC Wood Chip Study Objectives
• Integration of Economic and Ecological Elements
• Combined Analysis at Small Scale (Stand, Local
  Community) and Large Scale (State, Region,
  Landscape)

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SUMMARY

• Assess Impacts on Affected Economic Sectors
• Lumber and Furniture
• Recreation and Tourism
• Paper and Allied Products
• Assess Ecological Consequences
• Small Scale
• Cumulative

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CONCLUSION

• NC Wood Chip Study
• Early in Study
• Committed to Integration
• Committed to Communication Among Stakeholders
  Public
• Committed to Scientific Clarity
• Identify what is known
• Identify what is uncertain and in need of further
  study

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Southern Center for Sustainable Forests