Decentralisation and direct election of mayor as determinants of abstinence

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Decentralisation and direct election of mayor as
determinants of abstinence

• The Urban Institute
• Puls
• 10.03.2006.

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Content

• Methodology
• Goals of the research
• Results of the research

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Methodology

• Research method
• Telephone research - CATI carried out from 06-08
  March 2006.
• The research was carried out from Puls Centre
  for telephone interviewing in Split

• Sample
• Two stage stratified, random representative
  sample of citizens with the right to vote from
  the entire Republic of Croatia
• The sample is stratified according to region (six
  traditional regions) and size of the settlement
  (four categories of size).
• Random choice is provided with random choice of
  telephone numbers (households) from the base of
  all telephone numbers in the Republic of Croatia,
  as well as with usage of tables for random choice
  of respondents within the household.
• Possible discrepancies in sample structure in
  comparison with population were eliminated by
  weighting the results.
• 800 respondants age 18 and above participated in
  the research

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Goals of the research

• Goals of the research
• To establish the relation between abstinence of
  voters on local election and the model of
  election
• Main reasons for abstinence from elections
• Main differences of opinion between voters and
  abstents on the local elections
• Probability for polling in case the model of
  election changes
• Citizens attitudes toward direct election of
  mayor and county commissioner
• General attitude toward direct election
• Competencies of directly elected mayor
• Direct election of mayor and fulfillment of
  pre-election promises
• Attitudes toward decentralisation
• Confidence in local authorities
• Reasons for confiding in different levels of
  authority

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• Results of the research

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Only abstainers n424
Main reasons for abstinence-opened question
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Only abstainers n424
Main reasons for abstention
22,9
14,1
14,6
10,6
10,2
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Importance of some reasons for abstention
Only abstainers n424
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The most important reason for abstinence
Only abstainers n424
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Importance of particular reasons for abstinence
-demographically
Average agreement with the statement I could not
vote only for persons of high-quality but I had
to vote for parties or coalitions
Only abstainers n424
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Importance of particular reasons for abstinence
-demographically
Average agreement with the statement My vote
certainly does not decide who will be the mayor,
Head of municipality or county commissioner,
parties make that decision
Only abstainers n424
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Importance of particular reasons for abstinence
-demographically
Average agreement with the statement There was
no one I could vote for
Only abstainers n424
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Comparison of attitudes of voters and abstinent
of respondents who agree with the statement
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Probability of bigger turn out in case of direct
election
Only abstainers n424
How possible is it that you would go to polls and
vote on last elections if you could directly
elect the mayor or county commissioner?
30,8
65,2
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N324
Probability of bigger turn out in case of direct
election
Percentage of respondents who said they would
probably vote if they had the possibility to
vote directly for the mayor
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N324
Perception of advantage of direct election
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Only voters N376
Main criteria for making a decision on what list
to vote for
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Probability for going to the polls in case the
model changes
ALL RESPONDENTS
How possible is it that you would go to polls and
vote on the next local elections if mayor and
county commissioner are to be elected directly?
84,0
14,3
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Probability for going to the polls in case the
model changes
ALL RESPONDENTS
How possible is it that you would go to polls and
vote on the next local elections if mayor and
county commissioner are to be elected directly?
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Importance of model of election on decision to
vote
ALL RESPONDENTS
How important is the model of election for your
decision to vote?
22,4
74,2
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Conclusions-Influence of model of election on
abstinence

• The research indicates that there is a connection
  between the model of election and abstinence on
  last elections. Namely, about 48 respondents
  said their decision to abstain from elections was
  influenced, among other things, by their feeling
  that their vote has no significant influence on
  final election of mayor, the parties make that
  decision with their agreements and negotiations.
  Also, 31 of respondents said that their decision
  to abstent was influenced bythe fact that they
  could not vote for the person they think has the
  best qualities. For about ¼ abstents these two
  reasons were crucial for abstaining the last
  local elections.
• From answers to opened questions it can be
  concluded that for about 1/5 of respondnts main
  reason for abstention were other obligations or
  illness, for about 14 of respondents main reason
  of abstention was lack of high-quality choice
  (candidates and parties), and equal number of
  respondents is disappointed with politics. About
  10 respondents mentioned apolitical attitude as
  a reason for abstention, and equal number of them
  mentioned the feeling of disability and
  uselessness of voting.
• The majority of abstainers (65) say they would
  probably go to polls if they had the possibility
  to vote directly of mayor and county
  commissioner. Such a big number should be taken
  with reservation because that is socialy
  preferable answer, but such result clearly
  suggests that direct elections could have
  positive influence on response of voters on the
  next elections, as it can be seen from answers to
  direct questions about the intention to go to
  next polls in case the model of election changes.
• Results show that primary cause of abstention is
  the feeling of disappointment with politics,
  authorities and parties, and the feeling of
  helplessness. That is the main reason why they
  think direct election of mayor could motivate
  them to go to polls, it gives them sense of
  control and influence, as opposed to current
  model of election.

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General attitude toward changing the model of
election of mayor
ALL RESPONDENTS
Do you or dont you support introduction of
direct election of mayor and county commissioner?
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Competencies of directly elected mayor
ALL RESPONDENTS
What kind of competencies shouls directly elected
mayor have in relation to current competencies ?
74,3
15,9
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ALL RESPONDENTS
Competencies of directly elected mayor
Percentage of respondents who said that directly
elected mayor should have larger competencies
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Direct election of mayor and fulfillment of
election promises
ALL RESPONDENTS
How would direct election of mayor influence the
fulfillment of election promises?
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Conclusions - Competencies of directly elected
mayor

• In accordance with the results from previous
  chapter, the majority of respondents support the
  change of model of election of mayor and county
  commissioner, even 85 of citizens.
• ¾ of voters support the increase of competencies
  of directly elected mayor in relation to
  competencies he has now, as well as bigger
  independence of mayor in relation to
  town/municipal council.
• It is important to have in mind that part of the
  respondants is unaware of consequencies of
  increase of mayors competencies and authonomy in
  relation to town/municipal council, and it is
  really important to have public discussion about
  that in order to inform the citizens about
  possible negative consequencies of bigger
  authonomy and competencies of the mayor.
• Such results in favour of direct election of
  mayor is certainly a consequence of events after
  last local elections, trading mandates and
  general image created in public by process of
  forming a government in many counties, towns and
  municipalities.
• A little less than half of the respondents feel
  that direct election of mayor could have
  favourable influence on fulfillment of
  pre-election promises.

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Perception of competencies of local authorities
Would local authorities perform the following
functions better or worse than state authorities?
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Confidence in particular levels of authority
ALL RESPONDENTS
No matter which party is ruling the following
levels of authority, do you trust more ?
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Confidence in particular levels of authority
31
N224
Main reasons for having confidence in state
authorities
32
N109
Main reasons for having confidence in county
authorities
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Main reasons for having confidence in
town/municipality authorities
N308
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Conclusion - Decentralisation

• Surprisingly, the results of this research show
  relatively high level of citizens trust in
  local, i.e. municipal and town authorities.
  Namely, a large percentage of citizens think that
  local authorities could perform most of public
  services and functions better than state
  authorities. The largest percentage of citizens
  think that about preschool education, which is
  understandable since local authorities already
  perform that service. The smallest, but still not
  little percentage of citizens, think that towns
  and municipalities could provide better health
  services than state authorities.
• As far as public services and functions that are
  currently little less decentralised are
  concerned, it is important to point out that
  citizens have big confidence in local authorities
  regarding regulation of traffic in towns,
  amintenance of ALL the roads and social security
  of citizens. It is important to mention that a
  surprisingly large percentage of respondants
  think that local authorities could provide better
  protection from crime than state authorities, in
  other words, citizens are opened for partial
  decentralisation of police.
• 38 of respondents generally has the biggest
  trust in town and municipal authorities in
  relation to other two levels of authority, then
  there is state level, with 29 of citizens, and
  smallest number of citizens has the biggest trust
  in county authorities..
• Main reasons for trusting the local authorities
  are the feeling of closeness, familiarity and the
  feeling that they care about local problems.
• Main reason for trusting the state authorities
  comes from the fact that it is the most powerful
  level of authority with most of the competencies,
  better skills and less coruption in relation to
  other levels of authority.
• Main reasons for trusting the county authorities
  comes from the feeling that it is effective and
  close to the citizens..

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