DYNACAN: Canadian Longitudinal Microsimulation Model

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DYNACAN Canadian Longitudinal Microsimulation
Model

• Rick Morrison, for the DYNACAN Team,
• Human Resources and Social Development Canada
• rick.morrison_at_dynacan.org

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DYNACAN Purpose

• Primarily a policy model for the Canada Pension
  Plan (CPP)
• The CPP is Canadas largest publicly administered
  benefit program (retirement, survivor, and
  disability pensions, plus child and death
  benefits
• Micro-level impacts for prospective changes to
  the CPP, including winner/loser analyses

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DYNACAN History

• 1990 - 1994 Feasibility Studies
• 1995 Acquisition of CORSIM base
• 1996 1997 Adaptation to Canada
• 1998 Becomes a formal part of the process for
  changes to the CPP
• 2000 present Analyses Extension

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DYNACAN Overview

• Traditional , stochastic, longitudinal, dynamic
  microsimulation policy model
• Stochastic events include birth, ageing, becoming
  educated, immigration, emigration, leaving home,
  work, marriage, having children, divorce,
  becoming disabled or recovering, retirement, and
  death
• Emphasis on CPP contributions benefits
• One percent representative sample to 2100

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DYNACAN Structure
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DYNACAN Technical Highlights

• Language ANSI C (plus Java, Perl, SAS)
• Computer dual-processor, 64-bit AMD Opteron PC
  with 4 GB RAM (Production)
• Population begins at about 200,000 persons in
  1971, and grows to about 500,000 by 2075
• Run times 20 minutes each for demographics, base
  and option systems
• A few hours for standard presentations (SAS)

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DYNACAN Clients

• Primarily, inputs to policy development (advice
  to the minister, HRSDC)
• Some contributions to program evaluation (HRSDC)
• Occasional work for Office of the Chief Actuary
  (actuarial work on the CPP)
• Occasional work for Department of Finance

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DYNACAN Results Browser

• 1600 standard outputs (tables and graphs)
  precludes distribution as hard copy
• Outputs are distributed on DVDs with a Java-based
  DYANCAN Results Browser
• Pre-tax Post-tax Results, Reconciliation
• Search capacity for finding results of interest
• Powerful export for drop-ins to reports
• Sophisticated help system

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DYNACAN Recent Uses

• Generally, changes to CPP contribution and
  benefit rules
• More specifically --
• Survivor benefits
• Child-rearing drop out provisions
• Work/benefit linkages
• Incentives for working longer

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DYNACAN Recent Development

• More sophisticated treatment of immigration and
  returning Canadians
• Capacity to approximate after-tax impacts as well
  as pre-tax
• Creation of the Results Browser as the primary
  tool for disseminating results

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DYNACAN Development in Progress

• Upgrading the education module
• Continued work on the Results Browser
• Decision to take up retirement benefits
• Upgrade work and earnings, special attention to
  later-life work
• Addition to DYNACAN of private pension income and
  registered savings