Global%20Warming%20and%20The%20Impact%20of%20Sea%20Level%20Rise%20on%20Rhode%20Island

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Global Warming and The Impact of Sea Level Rise
on Rhode Island
John King Professor of Oceanography Graduate
School of Oceanography University of Rhode Island
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The Problem
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Whats going on?

• Increased Carbon Emissions
• Rising Temperatures
• Rising Sea Level

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Indicators of human influence on the atmosphere
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Changes in Temperature, Sea Level and Northern
Hemisphere Snow Cover
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Rising Temperatures
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Rising Temperatures
Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists
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Global and Continental Temperature Change
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Changes in annual average temperature in the
Northeast
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Changes in sea surface temperature - Maine
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Rhode Island climate migration
Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists
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Rising Sea Level
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Four contributions to sea level rise

• Thermal expansion of seawater
• Melting of glaciers and ice caps
• Ice sheet surface mass balance
• snowfall - melting
• Ice sheet surface dynamical imbalance
• increased flow rate

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Types of barrier islands
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Evolution of barrier islands during Holocene sea
level rise
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(No Transcript)
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Sea Level Rise Observed vs. Projected
Interval Model Prediction
Observed
mm/year
mm/year
1993 - 2003 2.6 3.1 1961 -
2003 1.2 1.8
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Projected globally averaged surface warming sea
level rise at the end of the 21st century
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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2006 - IPCC estimate

1. Thermal expansion of seawater .......... 28 cm
2. Glaciers and ice caps .........................
   12 cm
3. Mass balance .................................
   .... - 3 cm
4. Increased flow ................................
   ... 3 cm

Total 40 cm
Range of Estimates 18-59 cm
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Sea level rise projections
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Observed and Projected Sea Level Rise by 2100
projected
observed
Church White, 2006, Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Sea Level Rise Observed Projected
projected
observed
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Sea Level Rise New Estimates
Reference By 2100
Total Rise
(feet)
(feet)
Overpeck, et al, 2006 gt 3 13
- 20 Rahmstorf, 2007 1.6 - 4.6
---
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Greenhouse Gases in Ice Cores
From Brook, E. J., 2005. Science , 25 vol. 310.
no. 5752, pp. 1285 - 1287
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Rising Sea Level in Rhode Island Southern
Coastal Ponds
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Sea level rise 3 feet
Overpeck, J. T., et al., 2006. Paleoclimatic
evidence for future ice sheet instability and
rapid sea level rise. Science, v. 311, p. 1747 -
1750.
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Sea level rise 20 feet
Overpeck, J. T., et al., 2006. Paleoclimatic
evidence for future ice sheet instability and
rapid sea level rise. Science, v. 311, p. 1747 -
1750.
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Quonnie Pond present sea level
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Quonnie Pond 3 ft. sea level rise
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Quonnie Pond 20 ft. sea level rise
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Global Impacts of Climate Change and Sea Level
Rise
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Planning Needs

• Seamless digital terrain model for RI
• LIDAR survey of coastline
• High-resolution bathymetry of coastal waters

• Inundation model
• Storm surge with wave regime superimposed
• Better understanding of coastal erosion style and
  rate
• Expanded Rhode Island sea level and coastal
  erosion monitoring program

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Perhaps our epitaph will be The good Earth.
We could have saved it, but we were too damn
cheap and lazy. Kurt Vonnegut