WREZ Technical Committee

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WREZ Technical Committee

• Briefing Webcast Part 1
• December 15, 2008

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• Agenda Review
• Purpose
• Brief Technical Committee on information about
  WREZ model and WECC study request to be presented
  at January meeting
• Answer questions and secure feedback on materials
  to achieve approval in January
• Approve WREZ model documents for public comment
• Approve submission of study request to WECC

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WREZ Technical Committee Meeting

• WREZ Modeling Tools
• Black Veatch
• December 15, 2008

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WREZ Information Flows

• WREZ will employ linked tools to deliver data and
  information to users
• ZITA database of renewable projects
• Generation Transmission Model will allow users to
  access renewable project information, develop
  portfolios and allow users to identify potential
  transmission development collaborations

E L Data

• ZITA Data

Generation Transmission Model
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ZITA Zone Identification Process
All RenewableResources
Preliminary ScreeningCriteria
CandidateStudyAreas
Proposed REZ Identification
Environ- mental and Other Land Exclusions
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REZ-based Technologies

• Biomass
• Geothermal
• Hydro
• Solar Thermal
• Solar PV
• Wind

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What are Technology Characteristics?

• Major distinguishing assumptions that determine
  project economics
• Cost and performance information derived from
  recent Black Veatch projects and public sources
• Numbers vetted through recent RETI process and
  feedback from WREZ stakeholders
• Typical, representative information provided
• Characteristics can vary widely
• Project size
• Project location
• Labor type
• Air quality requirements
• Fuel variations

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Assumptions Renewable technologies

• Efficiency (if applicable)
• Capacity factor
• Typical size(s)
• Applicable current incentives (e.g., federal
  production tax credit)
• Capital cost
• inclusive of all direct and indirect costs,
  except transmission
• Operating and maintenance costs
• Typical fuel costs (if applicable)
• Calculated levelized cost of energy

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Proxy Technology Assumptions

• The WREZ cost model will allow the user to input
  any technology cost / performance assumptions
  they want
• ZITA needs to provide default assumptions for a
  single proxy technology for each resource
• Proxy technology generally based on the prevalent
  commercial scale technology employed today
• Alternate technology futures can still be modeled

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Biomass Assumptions

• Combustion-based technology (stoker / fluidized
  bed)

Costs are on a dry ton basis and do not include
transportation costs. Transportation costs will
be assumed to be 0.15/dry ton/mile.
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Biomass fuel cost assumptions
Costs are on a dry ton basis and do not include
transportation costs. Transportation costs will
be assumed to be 0.15/dry ton/mile.
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Geothermal Assumptions

• Conventional binary or flash technology,
  depending on resource

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Hydroelectric Assumptions

• Various technologies, site-dependent

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Hydroelectric Assumptions Notes

• Canadian hydropower will include incremental
  additions to powered dams, new power stations at
  non-powered dams and any feasible new,
  undeveloped hydropower.
• Applicable for sites before certain in-service
  dates, and which meet certain environmental
  criteria only.

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Solar Thermal Assumptions

• Dry-cooled Parabolic Trough, with no storage

• Trough with 6 hours of storage also included

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Solar Photovoltaic Assumptions

• Single-Axis Tracking Crystalline

Note all values are on a net ac basis
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Wind Assumptions

• Conventional, horizontal-axis, 3-blade machine,
  80m hub-height

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Zone Identification Process
All RenewableResources
Preliminary ScreeningCriteria
CandidateStudyAreas
Proposed REZ Identification
Environ- mental and Other Land Exclusions
Technology Assumptions
Resource Characteri-zation
Cost Assessment
REZ Cost Supply Curves
Generation Transmission Model
Zone Characterization Process
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Information Provided by ZITA to GTMG

• REZ Information
• REZ definition and a list of all resources
  included in the REZ
• Precise location of transmission interconnection
  point for the REZ
• Central collector point for all resources within
  the REZ
• Centroid or other point

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Information Provided by ZITA to GTMG

• Resource Information for Each Resource in Each
  Zone
• Resource type and technology
• Location
• Performance Information
• Capacity Factor (annual)
• Temporal Profile (12x24)
• Cost of generation (/MWh)

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Generation Transmission Model

• Allow users to identify REZ projects throughout
  Western North America and provide cost and value
  of energy of these resources to their load area
• Provide transmission options to deliver the REZ
  energy to load centers
• Excel based tool providing flexibility on
  operation
• Allow users to modify assumptions to meet
  individual requirements

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GenerationTransmission Model Data Flow
Selected Resource Portfolio -Supply
Curve -Resource Summary -Transmission Summary
User Defined Resources
Resource characteristics -Type -Energy
Profile -Capacity -Cost
Select Load Center
Select REZ Resources (User to click on map)
Transmission Mode (P2P or Multi-REZ)
Transmission -Utilization -Capacity -Cost
Supply Curve of Resources User can view details
production profile of area/resource
Delivered LCOE (/MWh)
Value of selected resource(s) to other areas
of interest
Line Attributes
Line Size
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Generation Transmission Model Attributes

• Allow users to see broad range of resource
  options
• Identify transmission alternatives
• Point-to-point
• Multi-REZ
• Flexibility
• Modify starting point values
• Add additional resources
• Add environmental considerations as they become
  available

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Thank You!

Ryan Pletka PletkaRJ_at_bv.com Tel [phone]
Kevin Joyce JoyceKP_at_bv.com Tel [phone]
Tim Mason MasonT_at_bv.com Tel [phone]
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Generation and Transmission Modeling Work Group
Update

• Co-Chairs
• Jerry Vaninetti, Trans-Elect
• Paul Smith, APS
• Technical Committee Webinar
• December 15, 2008

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GTMWG Sub Groups

• Transmission Characteristics Sub-Group
• Transmission Segments Sub-Group
• Model Development Sub-Group

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Transmission Characteristics Sub-Group

• Chair Bill Pascoe
• Charge
• provide information regarding the cost and
  operating characteristics of transmission lines
  to be included in the WREZ model. 
• Input assumptions to WREZ model
• Transmission capacities
• Transmission capital costs
• Right of way costs
• Substations
• Transmission loss assumptions

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Transmission Segments Sub-Group

• Chair Andy Leoni, Tri-State
• Charge
• provide information on transmission system
  distance and routing inputs to be used in the
  WREZ model. 
• Input assumptions
• Identify existing bulk transmission paths for
  modeling purposes
• Identify load zones
• Derive distances between segments

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WREZ Study Request to WECC

• Doug Larson and Thomas Carr, WIEB
• Technical Committee Webinar
• December 15, 2008

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Outline

• Purpose Advance the development of conceptual
  transmission plans from REZs
• Schedule
• Background WECCs TEPPC Study Requests and
  Transmission Planning
• Proposal WREZ study request to WECC/TEPPC
• Staff proposal
• Comments and issues received
• Discussion

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Purpose WREZ Conceptual Transmission Plans

• WREZ Phase 2
• Through existing Western Electricity
  Coordinating Council and subregional transmission
  planning groups, develop conceptual transmission
  plans to deliver energy from the highest ranking
  REZs to identified load centers.
• WREZ Work Plan, p. 5

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Purpose cont.

• What transmission is needed to deliver power from
  REZs to load centers?
• WREZ project seeks to tap the expertise of
  existing transmission planning processes in the
  West to develop conceptual transmission plans
• WECCs Transmission Expansion Planning Policy
  Committee (TEPPC) does WECC-wide planning
• Subregional Planning Groups perform planning in
  subregions within WECC.
• e.g. NTTG, ColumbiaGrid, SWAT, CCPG

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Schedule

• Pre Dec 15 - Staff ideas and feedback
• Dec 15 Tech Committee webinar
• Jan 1-9 Revised proposed request
• Jan 13-14 Tech Committee recommendation
• Jan 23 Steering Committee action
• Jan 31 Submission to WECC

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Background WECCs TEPPC Study Requests and
Transmission Planning

• WECCs TEPPC solicits stakeholder requests for
  modeling regional transmission scenarios/projects.
  
• TEPPC study requests need to be submitted by Jan.
  31 to be part of the study cycle for 2009.
• Details of the WREZ study request can be refined
  and integrated with other study requests during
  the TEPPC review process (Feb.- Apr.)

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WECC Criteria

• (a) What portion of the interconnected system
  will be considered by the study?
• (b) Does the request raise fundamental design
  issues of interest to multiple parties?
• (c) Does the request raise policy issues of
  national, regional or state interest for
  example, access to renewable power, and location
  of both conventional and renewable resources?
• (d) Can the objectives of the study be met by
  other studies by clustering or combination?
• (e) Will the study provide information of broad
  value to customers, regulators, transmission
  providers, etc.?

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WECC Criteria cont.

• (f) Can similar requests for studies or
  scenarios be represented generically if the
  projects are generally electrically equivalent?
• (g) Can requests be aggregated into energy or
  load aggregation zones with generic transmission
  expansion between?
• (f) Does the study request require the use of
  production cost simulation or can it be better
  addressed through technical studies such as power
  flow and stability analysis?
• BOTTOM LINE WREZ request fits well with WECC
  criteria

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Example 2008 WIRAB Low-Carbon Study Request

• Three part request
• High level of renewables by 2017
• 15 renewables penetration per NERC LTRA
• Energy efficiency gains consistent with WGA goal
  of 20 improvement by 2020
• Details worked out in June-July
• Carbon adder to attain WCI goal of reducing CO2
  15 by 2020 relative to 2005 levels.
• CO2 adders of 60, 40 and 20 per ton

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WREZ contribution to WECC

• Future transmission needs critically dependent
  upon future generation
• Transmission planning by WECC (and SSG-WI before)
  makes assumptions about future generation
• Weak link of past analyses
• WREZ project provides WECC unique opportunity to
  identify future generation areas based on best
  REZ zones
• WREZ model helps LSEs and regulators tool to
  identify the delivered cost of energy from REZ
  zones

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Other Studies Underway

• Western Wind and Solar Integration Study by
  NREL/WestConnect
• Focus on operational impacts
• Renewable penetration 30 wind and 5 solar for
  WestConnect footprint
• Western Climate Initiative
• Regional cap and trade modeled to attain 15 GHG
  reductions among members
• Economic analysis shows power sector GHG
  reductions 25 to 40 depending upon structure
  and complementary policies

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Proposal WREZ study requests to WECC

• Outline Staff draft proposal
• Request 1 LSE-specified resource preferences
• A Reference Case
• B Near-term sensitivity cases (2018)
• C Long-term sensitivity cases (2028)
• Request 2 Western transmission superhighway
  network

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Draft study request

• Request 1 LSE preferences
• A. Reference Case
• LSE resource planners use WREZ model (or other
  tools) to identify their preferred REZs and
  identify their MWs needed for 2018.
• LSE resource planners also identify amount of
  local renewable generation.
• If some LSEs do not provide this information,
  WREZ project must provide the missing data.

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Draft study request

• Request 1 LSE-specified preferences
• . . .
• B. Near-term sensitivity cases (2018)
• 1. Maximum local generation preference
• LSEs develop renewable resources within own
  state/province
• 2. Maximum REZ generation preference
• All generation based on the preferred REZs
  identified by the WREZ model
• gt Compare the cost differential between local
  renewables (small transmission) and regional
  renewables (big transmission)

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Draft study request

• Request 1 LSE-specified preferences
• . . .
• C. Long-term sensitivity cases (2028). Assumes
  renewable penetration level of 33.
• 1. Current technology case
• Assume default generation costs values
• 1/3 local renewables and 2/3 REZ renewables
• 2. Alternative renewable technology cost case
• Assume technology changes that lower the cost of
  different renewables (PV, CSP, wind, geothermal)
  by certain percentage
• Evaluate the transmission implications of
  different significant technological changes,
• e.g. PV innovations make most generation local
  and diminish need for transmission

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Draft study request

• Request 2 Western transmission superhighway
  network.
• Assume a transmission superhighway overlay that
  reflect the general location of proposed mega
  transmission projects.
• A. Reference Case
• Assumes current generation costs. 1/3 local
  renewables and 2/3 REZ renewables.
• B. Sensitivity case
• Assumes cost reductions of renewable
  technologies, e.g. PV, CSP, wind, geo.

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Comments Issues

• Concern that LSE planners will be reluctant to
  provide responses on their renewable energy
  preferences. Suggest that WREZ project provide
  LSE planners with generation plan and seek
  feedback.

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Comments Issues

• Should WREZ propose a higher renewable
  penetration scenario for near term analysis such
  as the 30-35 range in NRELs Western Wind and
  Solar Integration Study?
• Do we need a low growth (energy
  efficiency/conservation) scenario?

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Comments Issues

• New laws likely in the future that the WREZ
  scenarios may want to explore
• Higher RPS levels or national RPS with export
  opportunities for the West
• Carbon constraints, more likely under new U.S.
  administration
• Natural gas sensitivity cases.
• Higher renewable penetration could push gas
  prices higher or lower in long term.

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Schedule

• Pre Dec 15 - Staff ideas and feedback
• Dec 15 Tech Committee webinar
• Comments/suggestions
• Jan 1-9 Revised proposed request
• Jan 13-14 Tech Committee recommendation
• Jan 23 Steering Committee action
• Jan 31 Submission to WECC

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Questions, Comments, Suggestions?
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Technical Committee Briefing Webcast Part 2

• Thursday, Dec 18, 100 300pm MST
• Agenda
• ZITA proposal to refine CSAs into Qualified
  Resource Areas
• EL initial exclusion and avoidance areas,
  criteria for categorizing land, and wildlife data
  request
• Public comment package process
• Draft Phase 1 report outline