Results from Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) 2005 programs

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Results from Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR)
2005 programs

• Yucheng Song IMSG at EMC/NCEP
• Zoltan Toth EMC/NCEP/NWS
  
• Sharan Majumdar Univ. of Miami
• Craig H. Bishop
  NRL
• Roy Smith NCO/NCEP/NWS

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Acknowledgments

• NWS field offices, HPC/NCEP and SDMs
• NOAA G-IV and the USAFR C-130 flight crews
• CARCAH (John Pavone)
• Jack Woollen - EMC
• Russ Treadon - EMC
• Mark Iredell - EMC
• Istvan Szunyogh Univ. of Maryland
• others who have contributed!

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About the Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR)
Program

• Took place 20 Jan 17 March 2005
• Dropwinsonde observations taken over the NE
  Pacific by aircraft operated by NOAAs Aircraft
  Operations Center (G-IV) and the US Air Force
  Reserve (C-130s).
• Observations are adaptive
• collected only prior to significant winter
  weather events of interest
• in areas that might influence forecast the most.
• Operational since January 2001
• 31 flights, around 500 dropsondes this winter
  which is reduced from 720 drops last year

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ETKF-based targeting strategy
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A Typical Winter Storm
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NOAA G-IV and US Air Force Reserve (C-130s)
C-130
G-IV
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Evaluation methodology

• Compare two parallel runs from NCEP GFS analysis
  and forecast cycles (T126L28 resolution)
• Operational including all operationally
  available data (includes dropsondes)
• Control excluding only dropsonde data in the
  targeted area
• Verify against observations over the pre-selected
  area of interest (verification region)
• Rawinsonde observations for surface pressure,
  1000-250mb temperature, wind speed and moisture
• Rain gauge data for precipitation

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Blizzard of 2005(Jan 22-23,2005)
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Blizzard of 2005(Jan 22-23,2005)
The ETKF spotted the target area
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Forecast verification(Jan 22-23,2005)
SLP
250mb Height
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Forecast Impact(Jan 22-23,2005)
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Results for Surface Pressure
Of the cases 20 improved 1 neutral 9 degraded
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Results for Temperature
Of the cases 22 improved 1 neutral 7 degraded
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Results for Vector Wind
Of all cases 19 improved 0 neutral 11 degraded
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Results for Specific humidity
Of all cases 19 improved 0 neutral 11
degraded
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Breakdown for cases
Variable cases improved cases neutral cases degraded
Surface pressure 20 1 9
Temperature 22 1 7
Vector Wind 19 0 11
Humidity 19 0 11
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Individual Case Comparison
1 denotes positive effect 0 denotes
neutral effect -1 denotes negative effect
VR OBSDATE P T V OVERALL REGION
FHOUR E 20050120 1 1 1 1 82W
,37N 72 W 20050128 1 1 1 1
123W ,40N 24 C 20050205 1 1 1 1
97W ,31N 36 H 20050206 1 1 1 1
155W ,19.5N 24 C 20050206 1 1 1
1 90W ,43N 72 C 20050207 1 1 1
1 90W ,42N 60 C 20050208 1 -1
1 1 90W ,42N 36 AK 20050208 -1 -1
-1 -1 150W ,61N 48 E 20050208 1
0 -1 0 74W ,43N 48 C 20050209 -1
1 1 1 93W ,35N 96 AK 20050210
-1 -1 1 -1 135W ,55N 24 E
20050212 1 1 1 1 88W ,46N 48
W 20050213 1 1 1 1 123W ,38N
48 W 20050213 1 1 -1 1 123W ,38N
60 W 20050213 1 1 -1 1 123W
,38N 72 AK 20050219 1 1 1 1
150W ,61N 48 W 20050220 -1 1 1 1
118W ,34N 48 W 20050221 1 1 1 1
118W ,34N 24 AK 20050222 -1 -1 -1
-1 138W ,58N 24 AK 20050223 -1 1 1
1 140W ,60N 24 AK 20050225 1 1
1 1 140W ,60N 48 W 20050225 1 1
-1 1 123W ,40N 72 E 20050225 1
1 -1 1 75W ,40N 96 E 20050303 -1
1 1 1 86W ,41N 48 AK 20050309
-1 1 -1 -1 130W ,57N 36 H
20050312 1 -1 -1 -1 157W ,21N 24
E 20050313 0 1 1 1 81W ,32N
96 E 20050314 1 -1 -1 -1 79W ,32N
72 E 20050316 -1 -1 -1 -1 78W
,37N 48 W 20050317 1 1 1 1
122W ,38N 48
22 OVERALL POSITIVE
1 OVERALL NEUTRAL 7 OVERALL NEGATIVE
73 improved 23 degraded
OVERALL EFFECT
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Negative Cases Breakdown
1 denotes positive effect 0 denotes
neutral effect -1 denotes negative effect
VR OBSDATE P T V OVERALL REGION
FHOUR AK 20050208 -1 -1 -1 -1 150W
,61N 48 AK 20050210 -1 -1 1 -1
135W ,55N 24 AK 20050222 -1 -1 -1 -1
138W ,58N 24 AK 20050309 -1 1 -1 -1
130W ,57N 36 H 20050312 1 -1 -1 -1
157W ,21N 24 E 20050314 1 -1 -1 -1
79W ,32N 72 E 20050316 -1 -1 -1
-1 78W ,37N 48

• Of all the negative cases four are for Alaska
• One for Hawaii
• (as this is only experimental stage)
• Two cases for East Coast
• It seems that if the signal affecting the
  verification region is coming from Arctic,
  forecasts are hard to improve

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March 14, 2004 flight P34 72 hour verification
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March 16, 2004 flight P43 48 hour verification
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March 12, 2004 flight P38 24 hour verification
Hawaii case
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Future Work

• Examine the effect of dropsondes on precipitation
• Improve targeting method based on ETKF method
  with increasing resolution and ensemble
  membership
• Examine general target areas based on classified
  verification regions
• Improve verification techniques
• Increased duration of program for WSR06-07?
• Expand program to cover adaptive observation over
  Gulf of Mexico/Western Atlantic for 12-24 hr
  Eastern short storm forecast

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Background

• Preliminary Precipitation verification results
• Composite summary maps
• ETKF predicted signal propagation

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Precipitation verification

• Precipitation verification is still in a testing
  stage due to the lack of station observation data
  in some regions.

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Verification Region
Verification Region
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ETKF predicted signal propagation
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Forecast hours vs. Distance