Looking Ahead: LongTerm Prospects for Africa's Agricultural Development and Food Security

1
Looking Ahead Long-Term Prospects for Africa's
Agricultural Development and Food Security

• Mark W. Rosegrant
• Director
• Environment and Production Technology Division

Saving Niger A Look at Long-Term Food Security
in Sub-Saharan Africa Washington DC, USA,
November 17, 2008
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Overview of Presentation

• Key Questions and Challenges
• Global Prices Trends and Impacts
• Agricultural Development and Food Security A
  Focus in Africa

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Key Questions

• What is the future for food production, demand,
  and trade for Africa?
• Will current policies provide acceptable progress
  on childhood malnutrition and health?
• If not, can improved policies and investments
  achieve food security?

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Challenges for African Agriculture

• Political and economic governance
• HIV/AIDS
• Soil fertility and natural resource management
  (crop, land, and water)
• Inadequate funding for agricultural sector and
  weak role of the private sector
• Poor infrastructure
• Slow agricultural productivity growth

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GLOBAL PRICES TRENDS AND IMPACTS
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Trends in Food and Oil Prices
Source Data from WB 2008
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Drivers of Change for Food Prices

• The Biofuel Boom
• Income Growth and Demands on Food, Feed, and
  Natural Resources
• Increasing Water Scarcity
• Slowing Agricultural Productivity Growth
• Climate Change
• Trade policy, low stocks, speculation
• High input and transport costs (energy price)
• Population growth

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Impacts of High Prices on the Poorest
The consequences of increased prices for the
poorest and hungry are driven by some initial
conditions and by adjustments in labor, finance,
and goods markets

• Level of inequality below the poverty line (up)
• Proportion of income spent on food (high)
• Level of diet (low quality) and nutritional
  deficiencies (high)
• Wage rate adjustments among unskilled labor to
  changing prices (slow)
• Capability to respond to market opportunities
  (small)

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Impacts of the Financial Crisis

• Financial crisis and economic slowdown will cause
  further decline in food and energy prices
• But price relief will be largely offset by income
  and employment shocks
• Urban poor and rural landless will be hard hit by
  lower wages and employment

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AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOOD SECURITY A
FOCUS ON AFRICA
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IMPACT Overview

• IMPACT International Model for Policy Analysis
  of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
• 115 countries and regions
• 25 commodities cereals, meats, roots tubers,
  milk, eggs, soybeans, oils, meals, sugar, cotton
• IMPACT is a partial equilibrium agricultural
  sector model
• Model specified as a set of country-level supply
  and demand equations
• Country-level models are linked to the rest of
  the world through trade
• World food prices are determined annually at
  levels that clear international commodity markets

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Alternative Scenarios

• 1. Business As Usual (BAU)
• Best estimate of expected investments, policies,
  and economic and agricultural growth
• 2. Pessimistic Scenario
• Slowdown in investment, policy reform, and growth
• 3. Vision Scenario
• Improved policies and sharp increase in
  investment in agricultural research, rural
  infrastructure, irrigation, education, and clean
  water

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Alternative Scenarios

• 4. Trade Liberalization Scenario
• Removal of tariffs and quotas for agricultural
  commodities worldwide, 2005 and 2006

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Cereal Demand - BAU
Source Rosegrant et. al 2005
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Meat Demand - BAU
Source Rosegrant et. al 2005
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Net Cereal Trade - BAU
2020
Source Rosegrant et. al 2005
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Benefits of Global Trade Liberalization for
IMPACT Commodities, 2020
Source Rosegrant et. al 2005
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Cereal and Meat Output, BAU and Vision
Source Rosegrant et. al 2005
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People Without Access to Clean Water, Africa
Source Rosegrant et. al 2005
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Calorie Consumption Sub-Saharan Africa
Source Rosegrant et. al 2005
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Alternative Futures for African Children
Source Rosegrant et. al 2005
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Annual Public Investment, BAU and Vision
Scenarios, 1997-2020
Source Rosegrant et. al 2005
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Cumulative Investments by Sector, Africa Vision
Scenario, 1997-2020
Source Rosegrant et. al 2005
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Alternative Futures for Food Security in Africa

• Increasing food insecurity under current trends
• 42 million children still malnourished in 2020
• Investments and policy make a difference
• 16 million children malnourished in 2020 (with
  increased investment and strong policy reform) or
  57 million (with declining investment and weak
  policy reform)
• Two foundations of food security
• improved agricultural productivity and economic
  growth
• increased investment in human resources