Developing Rural Scotland

1
Developing Rural Scotland
Alan Renwick
COMMISSIONED BY
PARTNER INSTITUTES
2
Research Challenges
Soil, Water, Biodiversity all functions of our
choice of land use. Land use determined by
complex and uncertain interaction of technical,
economic, environmental, social factors Key
issue is understanding interaction between people
and environment (in widest sense)
3
Research Themes
4
Climate Change
An example Climate Change Mitigation
responses to limit the magnitude/rate of
change Adaptation - Adjustments in
ecological-social-economic systems in response to
expected climatic stimuli, their effects and
impacts (Smit 2000) Identifiable
need Integrated Responses
Mtc
5
Mitigation

• Targets for UK
• Agriculture Accounts for
• 12 of all greenhouse gases in Scotland (overall
  rural contribution greater)
• 68 of Scottish methane emissions and 83 of
  Scottish nitrous oxide emissions
• Options to mitigate
• Changes in practice
• Changes in land-use

MtC
6
Land Use - Bio-energy

• Biofuels
• Wheat/Sugar (Bio-ethanol)
• Oilseeds (Bio-diesel)
• Heat and Power
• Miscanthus
• Short rotation coppice
• Forestry (particularly in uplands and margins)
• Prospective increased change in lowlands to
  energy crops

7
Feasible

• Previous work shows
• Suitability for some energy crops
• Estimates of carbon balances for different crops
• assume 350,000 hectares become available in the
  UK for biomass crops UK Biomass Strategy May
  2007
• Which 350,000 hectares are these??

SRC Willow
8
Viable

• Economics of energy crops
• are at best marginal.
• Improve?
• Technology
• Value Added
• Opportunity Cost
• A need to understand how they
• fit into farming systems
• Marketing Issues
• Cultural Issues

Feed Wheat Price
9
Acceptability

• Landscape
• Biodiversity
• monocultures
• marginal areas (LFA)
• Aesthetics neighbourhood,
• recreation and tourism
• A fundamental question
• Must we choose between
• food and fuel?

Now I am sure I saw some sheep on a hill somewhere
10
(No Transcript)
11
Adaptation
Changes to Seasonality of Precipitation (winter
minus summer)

• 60 reduction in UK CO2
• emissions stabilising at global
• levels (550ppm CO2 limit) still
• means 2OC for Scotland
• Significant changes
• increased rainfall intensity,
• seasonality,
• storm activity,
• extreme events.
• Are there positive and negative impacts?

12
Risk of Colorado Beetle - current
Negative
13
Risk of Colorado Beetle - 2050
14
Landscape Biodiversity
Example issues Is the suitable "climate-space"
for plants and animals northwards and
uphill? What and where are the barriers and
bottlenecks? What will resultant habitats be
like? A landscape-scale approach can aid
understanding of issues of connectivity and
character
Climate Space "chequered skippers"
Bottle-neck in Central Belt
15
Adaptation - Feasibility
Landscape Planning Challenges Better targeted
knowledge on change/trends Major implications
for policy (eg SSSIs and Tier III LMC) Dynamic
rather than static designations Co-ordination
and co-operation between managers and other
stakeholders Incentivised through
Agri-Environment schemes?
Bottle-neck in the Central Belt?
16
Adaptation - Viability

• Challenge for Agri-Environment Schemes
• Understanding Value
• Ownership
• Regional/local objectives?
• Adaptive management
• Acceptable land use change
• Recreation, amenity, aesthetics
• Perceptions and Use (Rural-Urban)
• Cultural factors (e.g. historic environment)

Photographs courtesy of FWAG Scotland
17
Adaptation - Acceptability
Stakeholder and public acceptability of landscape
adaptation requires Understanding and awareness
of what changes will occur and why Evidence of
consideration of alternative options Participatio
n and engagement in decision-making process
Picture to be replaced
Public participation in planning future land uses
in the Loch Lomond and The Trossachs National Park
18
(No Transcript)
19
Integrated Responses

• Delivering Integrated Responses
• Interdisciplinary research
• Valuation
• Trade-offs inherent in
• sustainable development
• Science and society
• Governance
• Participation

F2
AG2
E1-2
20
Sustainable development
Lisbon Agenda recognises that competitiveness"
is underpinned by quality-of-life which in turn
depends on the environment