Lecture

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Lecture 4 Neo-realism And Balance Of Power
Theory
1. Neo-realism And Kenneth Waltz 2. Dimensions
Of A System 3. Assumptions Of Neo-realism 4.
Central Hypotheses 5. Balancing Versus
Bandwagoning 6. Dangers Of Multipolarity 7.
Testing Neo-realism Against The Historical Record
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LEVELS OF ANALYSIS
1. SYSTEMIC LEVEL 2. INTERSTATE LEVEL 3.
DOMESTIC, STATE, OR SOCIETAL LEVEL 4.
BUREAUCRATIC LEVEL 5. INDIVIDUAL OR DECISION
MAKING LEVEL
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Neo-Realism or Structural Realism(Kenneth Waltz)
1. Neo-realism Is A Structural Theory A Formal
Extension Of Realism 2. Uses Basic Assumptions
Of Realist School 3. Three Dimensions Of Any
System A) Anarchy Versus Hierarchy B)
Differentiation Of The Units C) Distribution Of
Capabilities
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Defining Polarity
UNIPOLAR WORLD
BIPOLAR WORLD
MULTIPOLAR WORLD
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Neo-realism Hypothesis 1
Hypothesis 1 If a State Faces a Stronger Power,
Then It Will Balance Against This Power.
H1 POWER ASYMMETRY--()--gtBALANCING
Balancing vs. Neutrality vs. Bandwagoning
Internal vs. External
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Balance Of PowerThe Billiard Ball Example
Rise of Threat From Most Powerful State In
Multipolar System
Balancing Behavior (Links Indicate Alliance Tie)
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Points About Balancing

• Waltz Any Power Asymmetry is a Threat
• Alliances Can Be Constantly Shifting
• Modern Examples
• 1) U.S.-Soviet Relations
• 2) Middle East Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the
  U.S.

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Neo-realism Hypotheses 2 3
Hypothesis 2 If The System Is Multipolar,
Then Conflict Will Be More Likely.
H2 MULTIPOLARITY--()--gt PROBABILITY OF WAR
Hypothesis 3 If The System Is Bipolar,
Then Conflict Will Be Less Likely.
H3 BIPOLARITY--(-)--gtPROBABILITY OF WAR
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Dangers Of Multipolarity
1) Uncertainty And Misperception 2)
Buckpassing 3) Chainganging
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Polarization Versus Polarity
Weakly Polarized Multipolar World
Strongly Polarized Multipolar World
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Walts Test Of WaltzDoes Neo-realism Predict
Well?
1. Balancing Is More Common Than Bandwagoning
Historically. 2. States Balance Threats Not Just
Power 3. Rare Occurrences Of Bandwagoning A)
Extremely Weak States B) No Allies Available C)
Close To The End Of A War
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Churchill Quote
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Final Points On Waltz
1. Waltzian World Is Less Conflict Prone
Than Classical Realist World 2. Tendency To
Believe Bandwagoning Common 3. Waltz Believes
All The Action Is At The Systemic Level
Only Through Some Sort Of Systems Theory Can
International Politics Be Understood. Kenneth
Waltz