IPM Assessment and Risk: Framing the Issues and Vocabulary

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IPM Assessment and RiskFraming the Issues and
Vocabulary

• Scott M. Swinton
• Dept. of Agricultural Economics
• Michigan State University
• 4th National IPM Symposium, Indianapolis, Apr.
  8-10, 2003

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Assessment for what purpose?

• To motivate adoption of IPM methods
• To evaluate the effects of investments in IPM

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Assessment to motivate adoption

• Motivation programs aim to encourage by
• Showing that goal is do-able
• Rewarding progress
• Industry-driven scoring systems of IPM assess to
  motivate adoption
• Lots of points, so everyone feels successful
• No negative points

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IPM point scoring system Mass. IPM Guidelines
for Potato

• Crop rotation 20
• Cover crop 10
• Sprayer calibrated 10
• Bt ? ½ insect spray 15
• Attended workshop 5
• Owns veg mgt guide 10
• ..
• 320 POINTS IN ALL
• Pest, soil/water education categories for points

• Used for certification
• Program assessment questions
• How much IPM is 180 of 320 points?
• Do all combinations of 180 points have same
  effect on pesticide use? Net income?

Source C. Hollingsworth et al. (1996)
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Assessment to evaluate programs

• Evaluations seek to determine
• Progress toward specific goals
• Measurement of program net benefits
• Public program assessments
• Need clear, simple IPM definitions
• Should be impartial
• Can be threatening to those engaged in programs
• Feedback permits learning about what works and
  what doesnt, leading to better use of public
  funds

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Risk in IPM assessment

• Risk matters in all IPM dimensions
• Profitability
• Health
• Environmental
• Risk can refer to
• Danger (in an average sense)
• Probability of undesired outcome

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Risk as a danger

• Theres a 2 risk of a damaging pest
  infestation.
• 2 is a mean point estimate of danger
• Many factors affect probability of pest
  infestation

0
2
4
6
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Risk in probabilistic sense

• Biological control may increase risk of damaging
  pest infestation.
• Refers to dispersion of probability distribution
  (from Pa to Pb)

Pa
Note Mean of Pa mean of Pb 2
Pb
0
2
4
6
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Avoiding Tower of Babel

• Lets be clear about intent in referring to
  risk and assessment
• What about definitions of IPM? Even more clarity
  needed!