Correlation, Causation, Control AND

1
Correlation, Causation, Control AND

• ATTRIBUTION THEORY
• Plous Chs 15 16

2
Correlation's

• Covariation
• assessments
• (difficult to do w/o contingency table analysis)

• BRIAN TUMOR
• DIZZY
• Yes No
• Turmor
• Yes 80 80
• (160) (40)
• No 20 20
• (40) (10)

3
ILLUSORY CORRELATION

• Belief 2 unrelated variables are correlated
• homosexual interpretations of inkblots
• cliniciansgthuman figures w no sexetc

4
Causes Illusionary correlation?

• Availability heuristic
• Representative heuristic
• over-estimate frequency of pairings

5
Invisible correlation's

• Failing to see correlation's due to absence of
  such expectations
• I.e.., Smoking and Lung Cancer

6
Why do people have difficulty telling when 2
variables are related?

• ID relevant information
• random sample
• classify/interpret
• cases
• remember classifications (confirming
  evidence/disconfirm)
• integrate estimates
• of covariation

7
Correlation is NOT CAUSALITY

• Correlation
• Covariation values
• 2 variables

• Causality
• 1 co-variation
• 2 time order
• 3 rule out other variables
• 4 plausibility
• 5 prior knowledge (theory)

8
Perceptions of CONTROL

• Perceptions of ability to CONTROL SITUATION.gt
• Health
• Happiness
• Politicians who you
• will support
• Political problems you will recognize

9
ATTRIBUTION THEORY

• People do not normally think
• scientifically
• use
• Conditions necessary to demonstrate causality

• How people make causal attributions
• Kellys cube

10
ATTRIBUTION THEORY

• Causal attributions
• ABOUT
• the person
• the entity
• the time

• Use 3 sources of information
• Consensus
• (other people - situation)
• Distinctiveness
• (same behavior)
• Consistency
• (same thing -times)

11
Evidence mixed

• Consensus
• Milgram obedience exp65
• vs
• ignore base rate information

12
Salience

• More Salient, vivid, available
• eventthe more frequent or probable it will seem
• perceptions of causality - depends upons ones
  attention (environment, situation, person)

13
Fundamental Attribution Error

• Over readiness to explain behavior in
  motivational terms,
• especial behavior of OTHERS
• if self..gtmore weight to SITUATION

14
Fundamental Causal Error (bias)

• IF SELF
• OVERWEIGHT
• SITUATIONAL
• FACTORS

• IF OTHERS
• OVERWEIGHT
• MOTIVATIOAL
• FACTORS

15
Political implication

• If actor-observer differences in attribution a
  function of perspective.
• ??????
• where you stand depends upon where you sit

16
Other Attribution bias

• More likely to accept responsibility for
  successes than
• failures
• mia culpa

17
Positive Effect bias

• tendency to attribute positive behaviors to
  disposition factors
• negative behaviors to situation factors

18
Negative effect if dislike person (group)

• racial or ethnic prejudice..gt
• belief actions result immutable, genetic
  characteristics of derogated people in general
• Ultimate attribution errorgtracism

19
Ascribe less variability to (disliked) others
-compared to self

• I.e.., What would you do if faced with situation
  of Albanians refugees ?
• tendency to see self as more multifaceted and
  less predictable than others (ESP if disliked)

20
How to reduce attribution bias?

• Pay close attention to CONSENSUS data (situation
  factors gthow most people will act,react)
• Put self in position of other (change
• perspective
• Look for other factors, causes

21
How to reduce attribution bias?

• Think like a scientist
• Use CONDITIONS NECESSARY to DEMONSTRATE CAUSALITY
  in
• SCIENCE as a checklist BEFORE
• making motivational assessments?