Structural Changes in the European Knowledge Economy and Society: LongTerm Economic Forecasting

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Structural Changes in the European Knowledge
Economy and SocietyLong-Term Economic
Forecasting

• Dr. Russ Moro
• www.rmoro.com

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Team
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Concept
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State of the Art andProgress Beyond It
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Consortium Needs
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Dr. Russ Moro

• PhD and MSc Economics
• MSc Statistics
• Diploma (eq. MSc) Aerospace Engineering
• Main research interests
• Macroeconomic modelling
• Statistics, esp. non- and semiparametrics,
  financial statistics

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Current Project Constellation
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• model development and integration
• project supervision

• Institute for Prospective Technological Studies,
  European Commission
• Seville, Spain
• innovation research

• Sintéleia
• Bologna, Italy
• electronic systems
• software

• German Institute for Economic Research
• Berlin, Germany
• SOEP socio-economic panel

• Link-It-All
• Hannover, Germany
• Hardware components for data analysis
• FPGA

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Project Focus Areas

• Technological aspects
• Regulatory aspects
• Social aspects

• Determinants of innovation
• Social innovation
• Innovation and growth

• Geographic diversification within EU
• Financial sector
• Demographics

• Robust decision making
• Analysis of goals and strategies
• Understanding of challenges

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State of the Art

• Club of Rome study, MIT 1972/1991 Limits to
  Growth
• a limited number of scenarios
• deterministic modelling
• RAND Corporation study, 2003Shaping the Next
  One Hundred Years
• large ensemble of scenarios
• robust strategies
• geographic diversification (North and South)
• interactive exploration

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Progress Beyond the State of the Art

• The focus on innovation as an engine of growth
  and the key to sustainability
• A new modelling paradigm which allows considering
  soft factors such as regulatory regimes,
  innovation and social changes
• Development of a model in hardware instead of in
  software acceleration of computations by 10000
  times or more. A quantum leap in modelling

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Spill-over Effects

• Finance
• asset pricing and financial system stability
  analysis
• General Forecasting
• investigation of new modelling concepts suitable
  for the next generation of computers
• Psychology and Sociology
• analysis of behavioural patterns in society

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Special Consortium Needs

• Integration of researchers with very different
  skills, probably more than in any previous
  projects (economics, sociology, finance,
  programming, computer hardware)
• Extensive data needs reflecting different sides
  of the economy and society
• Potentially high computing hardware costs,
  although a tiny fraction of conventional hardware

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Thank You!