Technology Forecasting and Assessment

1
Technology Forecasting and Assessment

• MGT 513

2
Outline week 10 October 29th

• Porter, Chapter 13-14
• Quiz 7

3
Chapter 13 Scenarios
4

• Are outlines or synopses of some aspect of the
  future
• Incorporate and emphasize those aspects of the
  world that are important to the forecast, which
  are called dimensions
• In scenarios, uncertainty is expressed by
  describing a range of possibilities (individual
  scenarios) or as the probability of a single
  scenario

5
Types of Scenarios

• Scenarios can be distinguished based on their
  temporal orientation
• Future histories they map a trajectory from the
  present state to some future time, focusing n a
  particular part of the world and tracking its
  development during some period
• Snapshots they present a cross-sectional view at
  a single point in time, and structural, rather
  than dynamic, characteristics are emphasized
• Considered from a planning perspective, snapshots
  portray goal or end states. Future histories
  portray plans or paths to end states

6
Uses of Scenarios

• To assess whether various policies or actions
  will assist or inhibit the realization of
  conditions described in them
• To assess how well alternative policies and
  strategies would perform under different
  conditions
• To provide a common background for individuals
  involved in planning within an organization

7
Constructing Scenarios

• Identify topical dimensions, which are determined
  by the purposes for which the scenario is being
  constructed
• Identify intended users, which might be the
  forecasters themselves, a government agency, a
  corporation,
• Specify time frame to place limits on the
  character of the scenarios

8
Continued

• Specify the assumptions
• General societal assumptions that relate to broad
  conditions of different factors involved
• Specific assumptions relating to the forecast at
  hand
• Set out the key dimensions usually are the users
  and the purposes of the scenarios
• Decide on the number and emphasis of scenarios
• Build and present the scenarios

9
Chapter 14 Economic Factors and Analysis
10

• Interrelationship between economics and
  technology evolve around two issues
• Technological change is the most significant
  source of economic growth
• Economic factors are crucial to the success of
  new technology

11
Technology and the Economy

• 87.5 of increased U.S output per capita from
  1909 to 1949 was due to technical change the
  remainder was due to capital investment (Nobel
  laureate economist Robert Solow, 1951)
• Technological inventors must be incorporated into
  market innovations to produce economic benefits
• Appropriate technology must take into account a
  peoples characteristics and culture (E.F.
  Shumacher, 1973)

12
Forecasting the Economy

• The basis of most forecasting of national
  economies is the model given by the equation
• Output Consumption Investment Government
  Spending Net Exports
• There are two economic forecasting categories
• 1-Quantitative forecasting
• employ many equations developed statistically in
  a manner analogous to the regression techniques
  (Chp.9)
• Use huge, computer-based, econometric models to
  make estimate of the four individual components
  of the output separately

13
Continued

• 2- Judgment or opportunistic forecasting
• The analyst uses the best information available
  to estimate each of the four components and sums
  the estimates to predict demand
• The disadvantage of this forecasting is that it
  takes the four individual components independently

14
Quiz 7