Greetings from

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Greetings from

• Caritas Bangladesh

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Climate Change Situation and Impact in
South-Asia

• Anwara Begum, PhD
• Director, Fisheries Program
• Caritas Bangladesh
• and
• Board Member, CANSA

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General views of South Asia

• Asia
• Largest and most populous continent
• 46 countries, covering 30 of worlds land and
  60 of population
• South Asia
• 8 countries, population 1.6 billion and likely to
  exceed 2.26 billion by 2050
• 70 people live in rural area, 75 poor, depend
  on Agriculture/NR disproportionately affected by
  Climate Change
• Monsoon is the most significant event in South
  Asian economic calendar

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Cont..

• 3/5 of cultivable land is rain fed, hence timely
  arrival of rain is crucial
• The Himalayas are the home to the regional
  glaciers - melting creates flood risk long run
  could create water shortage, this risk cut across
  borders. (Glaciers retract in Nepal can flood
  Bangladesh)
• Increase in temperature will accelerate snow
  melting which coinciding with the summer monsoon,
  contribute to flood disasters in Himalayan
  catchments.

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Climate Change Context of South Asian

• Highly vulnerable to climate change among the sub
  regions of Asia
• Key biophysical vulnerabilities to climate
  change, vulnerability and extreme events in South
  Asia vary widely across the region due to
  differences in physical, social and economic
  circumstances
• Climate disorder affects every sector of society
  includes - agriculture, water, health, coastal
  zone, biodiversity, ecosystem, socio-economic
  development.

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Cont....

• Exploitation of natural resources associated with
  rapid urbanization, industrialization, economic
  development led to air- water pollution, land
  degradation and other environmental problems
• Geographic location with high poverty, population
  density has rendered South Asia vulnerable to the
  impact of climate change.

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Cont....

• Climate change impact on one sector may have
  impact on other segment of economy.
• Example
• Agriculture
• Industry
• Biodiversity
• Coastal zone management
• Parts of South Asia - becoming drier due to more
  heat and evaporation, uneven precipitation,
  weather pattern change.

Water
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Cont....

• Ocean warming increasing cyclone, tornado. water
  surge
• SLR due to melting impacting live and
  livelihood of millions of poor people
• Example
• Aila - 25th May, 2009
• - washed away Coastal embankments
• - 271 died, 40,000 people lost home/assets, now
  living on broken embankments at high risk

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Agriculture

• In South Asia
• Agriculture is the primary occupation, employing
  60 of the labour force.
• Per capita growth in agricultural productivity is
  less than 2, kept pace with population growth,
  lower than East Asia, pacific and Latin America.
• By 2050, crop production will be reduced by 30,
  food security will be under threat.
• Temperature already approaching the limits of
  crop tolerance. Any further increase would lead
  to decline in productivity. Rain fed Agriculture
  is especially vulnerable to climate.

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Cont....

• Long-term change in temperature and rainfall have
  direct implication on agricultural yields.
• Rain onset, duration magnitude.
• Extreme weather events like floods, drought,
  cyclone directly damage crops.
• In Bangladesh between 1991 and 2000, 93 disaster
  recorded, huge lose of agro-production.
• Scarcity of surface water, decreasing ground
  water level will affect agriculture, fisheries,
  and other livelihood options.

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Cont....

• Temperature increase - soil loss - moisture,
  fertility, microbial function.
• SLR/Salinity intrusion-crop failure, less
  production, loss of fertile costal lands
• Unpredictable farming condition - Farmers
  traditional crop calendar will have disruption.
• Increase incidence of pest and vector borne
  diseases.

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Cont....

• Impact on Agriculture is location specific-
  within the region/ country/ parts of the country
• Short duration, heavy rain - hill slide, stone
  slide - sudden crop damage.
• One degree rise in temperature will decrease 10
  yield of rice.
• Higher temperature during flowering of rice will
  reduce grain number, size and quality.
• Substantial loss will be occurred in rain-fed
  wheat.

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Cont....

• 2.50C or more increase will drop in yield in non
  irrigated wheat and rice.
• By 2100 net production of SA is projected to
  decrease 4-10 (under most conservative scenario)
• Impact of climate change on Asian marine
  Fisheries occurs - will be disturbed as it
  depends on water chemistry and food chain.
• Inland Fisheries will be adversely affected by
  lower availability of oxygen in high temperature,
  timing, amount of precipitation affects spawning,
  growth rate, growing period.

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Health

• Climate change will bring new challenges for
  maintaining health as many major diseases are
  climate sensitive
• Vector for disease like malaria, diarrhea,
  cholera, dengue are highly climate sensitive,
  could become more pervasive with rising
  temperature.
• Decline yield, food availability could lead to
  malnutrition, push to other diseases, South Asia-
  ½ of the children - aged 0- 5 years are
  malnourished.
• A warmer climate will increase air pollution,
  increase respiratory and air borne diseases.
• Flood, water surge, cyclone - will cause
  transmission of diseases through unclear /
  stagnant water.

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Cont....

• With increased rainfall, areas with inadequate
  sanitation, diarrhea disease, cholera, dysentery,
  typhoid occurrence will increase Example -
  Flooding west Bengal in 2007, 276 death from
  cholera
• Air pollution and rising ozone level exacerbate
  chronic illness such as cardiovascular disease
  and asthma
• Temperature extremes - heat stroke
  cardiovascular, respiratory disease, heat wave
  affect poor and out door laborers
• Rising temperature - spreading of disease and
  pest, a threat for agriculture.

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Water

• Climate change will have effect on water
• - Surface
• - Underground
• Sea/Ocean
• Will affect drinking, irrigation and hydro -power
  production.
• More floods will degrade drinking water, damage
  crops, livestock.
• Sea level rise will affect ground water aquifers.
• Higher altitude area Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan
  temperature will rise 1.50C - 2.50C by 2050, less
  rain.

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Cont....

• By 2050 Annual run off in the Brahmaputra is
  projected to decline by 14 and Indus by 27.
• Heavy monsoon rain will bring in flash flood in
  South Asia
• Hill slide, stone slide, problems in water shade
  management
• Himalayan ice melting will cause more floods,
  after 2/3 decades water scarcity will occur in
  the linked rivers-Ganga, Brahmaputra and Jamuna.
• Floods are likely to intensify causing major
  problem in Bangadesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh of
  India.
• SLR will degrade coastal aquifers, create
  drinking/irrigation problem.

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Ecosystem and Biodiversity

• Climate change impacts on productivity and
  resilience of ecosystems, critical for life,
  sustaining environmental scenario, i.e., water
  shed protection, soil fertility and carbon
  sequestration.
• Plant and animal will be at risk of extinction
  example wetland, forest.
• 20-30 of species will be at risk of extinction
  if warming continues at its current rate.
• Mangrove forest will decline. Consequence will
  make the region susceptible to storm, waves river
  erosion, loss of biodiversity.

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Cont....

• Climate change will accelerate damage to fresh
  water ecosystem such as lakes, marshes and
  rivers.
• Ocean chemistry is changing more than 100 times
  rapidly than it was during last 2100 years. Since
  industrial revolution, Oceans became 30 more
  acidic will cause coral bleaching, sea fish birds
  will be under threat.
• Climate change will affect on the future
  distribution, productivity and health of forest
  throughout SA, ultimately will reduce ecosystem
  quality.

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Sea level rise

• Maldives-96 islands occupy less than 1 km of
  land 80 of the country lies below 1m of sea
  level, could create existential threat.
• 60 million of people of SA will be at risk of
  coastal flood.
• Seal level rise threatens the existence of many
  small island and development prospects of coastal
  communities. IPCC projection for 2100 range from
  9 to 88 cm.

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Sea level rise

• SLR is a concern for coastal urban areas (Khulna,
  Karachi, Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai, Cochin).
• Fertile delta system threatened by inundation,
  salinity intrusions Example - Bangladesh.
• Salt water intrusion in low lying agricultural
  plains and water resources could lead to
  localized food insecurity, spread of water
  related diseases and contamination of fresh water
  resources.

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Cont....

• Parts of east coast (Bangladesh and Orissa)
  vulnerable to storm and surges.
• Low lying islands (the Maldives, Coastal area of
  Srilanka and chars and islands in Bangladesh)
  stand most to loose by SLR.
• Pakistan/India current rise 1mm/year. Bangladesh
  is particularly vulnerable, estimates 0.3 to 1.5
  meters by 2050.

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Cont....

• Bangladesh has direct inundation impact
• Rising sea levels in particular, pose a growing
  threat to the communities in low-lying coastal
  areas of SA countries
• Some countries could loose large area of land
  for both habitat and food production
• SLR could force millions of people to
  relocate/migrate
• BY 2100 about 30 million people of Bangladesh
  will be climate migrant

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Thanks