World Poultry Forum

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World Poultry Forum

• Guadalajara
• 18th September 2006
• David Nabarro

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Presentation

• Global Situation
• Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
• Threat of human influenza pandemic
• Egypt Situation
• Perspective of the Commercial Poultry Sector
• Options for joint working
• Acknowledgements Government of Egypt, FAO (Anni
  McLeod and Jemi Domenech), WHO, UNICEF

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Three Kinds of Influenza
Seasonal Influenza The Flu
Avian Influenza Bird Flu
Pandemic Influenza A Pandemic
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and FAO
Map courtesy of FAO using data from OIE
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Map prepared By US Government
MYANMAR
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Global Avian Influenza Situation What is
happening now?

• New outbreaks in the last few months of H5N1 have
  been confirmed in China, Thailand, Egypt and Laos
  
• Human cases reported from Thailand and suspected
  in Vietnam
• Continued outbreaks in birds and human cases in
  Indonesia and Nigeria
• Reports of HPAI from Russia, Eastern Europe and
  Africa
• Bird Migration Zones the cycle continues
• Unregulated Trade an important source of spread
• Efforts to encourage safe poultry rearing and
  healthy human behaviour in commercial sector
  and backyard
• Pandemic preparedness work in Asia and the Pacific

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Sporadic Human Cases of Avian Influenza

• Human infection with H5N1 is rare, and usually
  the result of virus transmission from birds to
  humans.
• Since 2003 H5N1 has infected 241 people
• 141 have died, mostly children and young adults.
  
• Human deaths have been confirmed from
  Azerbaijan, Cambodia, China, Egypt, Indonesia,
  Iraq, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam.
• Vietnam (42) and Indonesia (46) account for more
  than 80 of the total deaths.
• No evidence of mutation to sustained human to
  human transmissibility

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DETERMINANTS OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA
A new influenza virus emerges to which the
general population has little/no immunity
The new virus must be able to replicate in humans
and cause disease
NOT TO DATE
The new virus must be efficiently transmitted
from one human to another
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What is the current threat level?
UN System Influenza Coordination
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Economic Impact of Next Pandemic

• The next influenza pandemic will start with local
  outbreaks but will have global impact
• Compare with SARS - lt1000 dead, 50 billion
  economic loss.
• It could lead to significant loss of life and
  high absenteeism in all sectors
• The IMF suggests a significant temporary impact
• markets closed, unreliable utilities and
  telecoms, cash shortages
• Reduced travel and leisure, impact on food
  industry
• There may be threats to Rule of Law, Security,
  and Continuity of Governance

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2 Avian Influenza Case Study Egypt
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Egypt 1 Current Situation

• Dramatic increase in chicken farming
• Increased availability of low cost chickens
• 40,000 farms and nearly a billion chickens
• Two million persons employed
• First farm with H5N1 Influenza 16 Feb 2006
• Information public 17 February 2006
• 3 governorates affected.
• H5N1 reported in 21 governorates, 107 districts.
  
• 859 farms and 167 backyards affected.
• 14 confirmed human infected cases, 6 fatalities
• Chicken production greatly reduced.
• Many chicken farmers destitute, seeking work

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Egypt 2 Location of AI infection
Established in 22 Governorates, 822
Villages,24 Positive site from 7581 Samples taken
allover these Governorates
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(No Transcript)
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Egypt 3 Reporting of Infected Foci Distributed
(Feb. June 2006)
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Egypt 4 Actions and Challenges

• Significant initiatives undertaken at Central
  Government and Governorate level
• Programme to improve bio-security and
  surveillance in poultry farms has started,
  systematic vaccination is being introduced,
  restocking linked to bio-security
• Improved bio-security is in the interests of the
  producers
• Need for veterinary specialists to exercise
  strong supervision.
• Effort to increase control over movements of live
  poultry within and between governorates.
• Effort to reduce live chicken markets, encourage
  more hygienic handling of live poultry and
  discourage the slaughtering of birds at home
• Effort to Increase bio-security for backyard
  chickens (education and legal provisions)
• Mass communication campaigns being developed
  (recognizing importance of poultry and AHI
  control).

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3 Avian Influenza overall market impacts
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Markets, disease, human behaviour tightly
interlinked...
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Demand for poultry has driven a rising market
share....
Poultry
40 of Share
22 of Share
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3.1 Market Factors
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Poultry prices in 2003 were low....
Asia/ Russian Crisis
Avian flu
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Recent AI outbreaks have led to fall in global
poultry consumption....
US export prices rose to record levels in Oct
2005, but dropped 13 by the end of the year.
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AI has shifted export patterns...
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Some National markets have experienced severe
shocks..

• IRAQ, only 50 out of 500 semi-commercial farms
  continued operating
• EGYPT, the poultry industry is reported to have
  lost 30 of its numbers and 35 of its value
• INDIA reported consumption drops of 25, causing
  a 12-13 fall in domestic prices
• BRAZIL, the price of day old chicks fell by 50
  although there has been no outbreak

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3.2 The effect of human behaviour
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Market shocks are caused by consumer perceptions
of risk.......

• ITALY one outbreak, consumption fell by 70
• NEPAL no outbreaks, but falling demand in local
  poultry markets
• MAURITANIA after an outbreak in Nigeria ,
  poultry prices dropped to 52 of their former
  level
• MIDDLE EAST
• SHOCKS ARE OUT OF PROPORTION TO RISK

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Continued risky behaviour from producers,
traders....

• Wild birds are still being illegally traded

• Poultry sales continued from affected areas while
  outbreaks were in progress, in spite of movement
  bans

• Some live-bird markets have upgraded their
  biosecurity, using a mixture of stick and
  carrot.

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3.3 The effect on human wellbeing
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Loss of assets and income....

• Total losses are greatest for industrial and
  large commercial producers, but...

• Small commercial producers lose a major asset and
  are unable to repay debts.

• Owners of scavenging flocks are least likely to
  be compensated for loss.

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Market barriers raised....

• Biosecurity measures taken in Vietnam have caused
  market chains to change shape, excluding
  smallholder producers of chickens and ducks.
  Contract farmers were protected during the 2003-4
  outbreaks, but now find it harder to comply with
  requirements.

• If small farmers can no longer meet biosecurity
  demands, small traders and input suppliers will
  be affected
• The challenges is for the small farmers and large
  producers to work as one on the threat

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3.4 What might the future hold?
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POSSIBLE FUTURES
Consumer confidence is restored, but disease
continues to spread, trade bans continue. Demand
rises but sources of supply are limited. Prices
rise short term, market balance restored longer
term?
HPAI continues to spread, consumer confidence in
poultry remains low. Demand and supply fall. Long
term projections change, shift in favour of other
protein?
Consumer confidence is restored, disease freedom
restored in compartments or zones. Trade is
restored while disease is gradually brought under
control. Long term total market projections
affected very little?
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Can we lessen the negative impacts?
Restore trade more quickly

• Effective rapid response mechanisms to deal with
  outbreaks

• Creative approaches to disease freedom e.g.
  compartmentalisation

• Compartments will only work if there is
  transparency timely dissemination of all
  relevant information about AI outbreaks

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4 Take Home Messages
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Public Health fact

• Around 70 percent of new human infections will
  come from animal diseases. The line of defense
  against these threats should be built in the
  animal and human health sectors together, with
  the animal health sector increasing its focus on
  animal health along the standards adopted members
  of the OiE and strategies developed by both the
  OIE and FAO.

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Nutrition fact

• Urbanization, income rise and dietary changes
  create an increase in the demand for animal
  production. Poultry production is an economic
  activity, a key contributor to human nutrition
  and a critical provider of raw material for the
  food industry. A chicken egg has all the 8
  essential amino acids required for the human diet.

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Consumer issue

• The demand for poultry will be sustained if
  consumers are confident that animal health
  standards are applied. This means veterinary
  services that work, health regulations (like OiE)
  that are universally applied especially in trade.
  Safe on-farm production contributes directly to a
  better human health and well being and advice
  about good cooking practice.

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The current problem

• The current epizootic of Highly Pathogenic Avian
  Influenza has exploded dramatically across the
  world in a very visible manner. The risk of an
  influenza pandemic is real. This affects public
  confidence and minimize the likelihood of poultry
  flocks being affected by influenza viruses.
  Keep the demand dip as short as possible.

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The reality for Producers

• Poultry industries are expected to continue to
  expand rapidly in most countries for the next two
  decades. Will this expansion be affected by lack
  of public confidence in the safety of the
  product? Or can consumers, producers and
  retailers learn to live with H5N1.

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The potential reward

• The epizootic of H5N1 can be brought under
  control if poultry production and marketing is
  made safer. This means introducing sound
  hygiene, biosecurity, testing, certification and
  consumer education measures throughout the
  production and marketing chain.

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A Common Priority Get the message out, where it
is needed
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Promote 4 actions now!
Street-wise hygiene campaign
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Conclusion

• No simple answers to any of the continuing
  challenges we all face
• The eyes of many are on us
• It is imperative that we work together to address
  these challenges, engaging communities, private
  entities, different levels of government,
  political leaders, international community as we
  do it
• We depend on Alliances in which we can discuss
  these issues and review how we are getting on
  without fear of attack and recrimination
• We need to sustain alliances at local national
  and global levels. They will enable us to move
  together as one