REDUCTION EMISSION FROM DEFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION REDD

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REDUCTION EMISSION FROM DEFORESTATION AND FOREST
DEGRADATION (REDD)

• Rizaldi Boer
• Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity
  Management in South East Asia and Pacific- Bogor
  Agricultural University
• rizaldiboer_at_gmail.com

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Outline

• Background What is REDD?
• What will be eligible for a REDD scheme and what
  not?
• What are permanence, leakage, additionality?
• How to construct a baseline against which to
  measure changes in the rate of deforestation?
• How to measure and monitor the emission reduction
  from deforestation and forest degradation
• What definition being applied for REDD Forest,
  deforestation and forest degradation?
• Can we simplify the approach?

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How hard must we pull the levers? Emission paths
for stabilizing CO2 concentrations to limit T
increase
BAU (gt6C)
(3C)
(2C)
The path to avoid ?Tavg gt2C (gold) requires much
earlier, more drastic action than path to avoid
gt3C (green).
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Source Meinshausen 2007.
CP2 ??
CP1
5
3.9
GtCO2e pa
1.4
3.8
South South East Asian GHG Mitigation Potential
from Land Use
1.7
0.7
Mitigation Opportunity
Avoided Deforestation Reduced Deforestation from
Slash Burn Agriculture, Reduced Forest
Conversion to Pasture and Intensive Agriculture
Reduced Timber Harvesting
Forest Sequestration Pastureland
Afforestation Cropland Afforestation Degraded
Forest Reforestation Forest Management
Agriculture Tillage and residues
management Grassland management Organic soils
restoration Degraded lands restoration
Source Smith et al., 2007
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Global GHG Emission
Redrawn from WRI and CAIT data of 2000
The less developed a cointry the higher emission
rate from LULUCF, the more developed a country
the higher emission rate from the use of fossil
fuels
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Forest transition
Forest cover
1. Triggers (road)
2. Reinforcing loops (local demand, infrastr,
capital accum, pop dynamics)
3. Stabilizing loops (off-farm jobs, increased
land productivity, forest scarcity)
Time
Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics
Undisturbed forests
Forest/agric.mosaics
Forest frontiers
Source Kaimowitz and Angelsen (1997)
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Forest transition
Forest cover
PNG, DR Congo
Indonesia, Brazil
China, Costa Rica
India, Bolivia
Time
Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics
Undisturbed forests
Forest/agric.mosaics
Forest frontiers
Source Slide of Murdiyarso (2008)
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Forest transition Indonesia
Forest cover
Papua
Kalimantan
Java?
Sumatra
Time
Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics
Undisturbed forests
Forest/agric.mosaics
Forest frontiers
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What will be eligible for a REDD scheme and what
not?

• AWG-LCA
• Policy approaches and positive incentives
• on issues relating to reducing emissions from
  deforestation and forest degradation in
  developing countries and
• the role of conservation, sustainable management
  of forests and enhancement of forest carbon
  stocks in developing countries

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AWG-LCA REDD Policy approaches and positive
incentives

• Bali Action Plan (1/CP.13) COP decides to launch
  a comprehensive process to enable full, effective
  and sustained implementation of the Convention
  through long-term cooperative action, now, up to
  and beyond 2012,
• Para 1(b) Enhanced national/ international
  action on mitigation of climate change,
  including, inter alia, consideration of
• Para 1(b) (iii) Policy approaches and positive
  incentives on issues relating to reducing
  emissions from deforestation and forest
  degradation in developing countries and the role
  of conservation, sustainable management of
  forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks
  in developing countries

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Emissions from DD
Forest areas (production forest, conversion
forest, protection forest, conservation forest)
including peat land forest
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• A/R CDM

• REDD

Carbon Stock
Carbon Stock
Baseline
Baseline
Time
Time

• Payment when the trees grow

• Payment when forest carbon stock can be
  maintained above the baseline

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What are permanence, leakage, additionality?

• Permanence addresses the extent to which forests
  permanently store carbon. This issue has been
  addressed several ways
• In AR CDM through the issuance of t-CER and
  l-CER. which must be replaced after their
  certified period ends
• Joint Implementation (JI) and many voluntary
  instruments do not apply this standard, but
  address permanence through insurance, or
  requirements to set aside a buffer amount of
  permanent credits

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What are permanence, leakage, additionality?

• Additionality. Activities claiming REDD credits
  must show that reduced deforestation rates
  attributed to the project would not have occurred
  in the absence of carbon finance. A number of
  additionality tests exist under the CDM and
  voluntary standards that can be used to test for
  additionality under REDD

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What are permanence, leakage, additionality

• Leakage. this is an increase in emissions in an
  area outside the boundary of the REDD project.
  It is caused either by project activities that
  essentially force deforestation outside the
  project boundary (activity shifting), or by
  market effects that change supply and demand.
  Change in timber supply from REDD activities is
  particularly prone to leakage caused by market
  effects. National level accounting for REDD
  should accommodate leakage within a country.
  Activity shifts outside the country would be
  minimized if other countries involved in a linked
  timber market participate in a regime for
  reducing deforestation.

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Decision 2/CP.13 telah memberikan Indicative
Guidance
Managing problem of permanence, leakage and
additionality in REDD

• Indicative Guidance in the Annex of Decision
  2/CP.13
• Emission reductions from national demonstration
  activities should be assessed on the basis of
  national emissions from deforestation and forest
  degradation.
• Sub-national demonstration activities should be
  assessed within the boundary used for the
  demonstration, and assessed for associated
  displacement of emissions.
• Reductions in emissions or increases resulting
  from the demonstration activity should be based
  on historical emissions, taking into account
  national circumstances (NEED TO DEVELOP REL)
• Sub-national approaches (activities within
  national boundary), where applied, should
  constitute a step towards the development of
  national approaches, reference levels and
  estimates.

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REDD Strategy
Region of REDD (e.g. District)