Sarah Cornell

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UK Offshore Wind 2004 BWEA 3 March
Flood and Sea Surge The UKs Coastline and
Global Climate Change

• Sarah Cornell
• Andrew Watkinson, Mikis Tsimplis Tyndall RT4
  team

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research
institutions. It is funded by three Research
Councils NERC, EPSRC and ESRC and also
receives some support from the DTI.
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Tyndall Consortium
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Tyndall Objectives

• Advancing the science of integration

• Developing responses

• Motivating society

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• Integrating Frameworks
• Decarbonising Modern Societies
• Adapting to Climate Change
• Sustaining the Coastal Zone

Tyndall Research Themes
Theme 1 a systems approach
Theme 3 a questions approach
Theme 2 a targets approach
Theme 4 a place-based approach
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RT4 Sustaining the Coastal Zone
Vulnerability assessment
Regional coastal simulator
Governance stakeholder dialogue
Outreach and the Foresight process
To understand and anticipate key processes and
interactions in the coastal zone as the
necessary basis for flexible adaptation to
climate change and altering environmental
conditions
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A vulnerable coastline

• Drivers of flood risk
• Coastal erosion
• Strategic assessments
• Environmental futures
• Integrated modelling
• Uncertainties
• Communication

The coastline of south-eastern UK, assuming 6m
of sea level rise in the wake of Greenland Ice
Sheet melting
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Flooding drivers
Foresight 2004

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Flooding responses the potential of responses
to reduce flood risk
Foresight 2004
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Vulnerability assessment STORM SURGES
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Change in 50-yr surge height(2080s, high
emissions, high SLR)
STOWASUS-2100 EU ENV4-CT97-0498 Source Mikis
Tsimplis
Source Jason Lowe, UKCIP
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Vulnerability and the NAO

• Strong influence on European climate
• Not necessarily linked to Global Change
• Distinguishable on-ground parameters

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Tide and Surge model (0.5 x 0.33, 35
km) Tides Wind stress Sea Level pressure
(1955-2000) Wakelin et al., 2003, GRL
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Vulnerability and the NAO Western Scotland
Ferry disruptions have also been examined.
J. Coll and S. Gibb
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Wave climates North Norfolk
Wave model (SWAN) for Norfolk STOWASUS shows lt1
increase in the extremes.

• Strong gradient in wave height from east to west
• SLR brings effect of waves further inshore in
  areas with wide tidal flats
• Cliffs (E) increasing wave height offshore
  increases wave height at coast
• Tidal flats (W) increasing wave height offshore
  does not increase wave height at coast.
• ? Wind direction ? change in longshore transport

Source Judith Wolf, POL
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A Regional Coastal Simulator
Climate change and sea level rise
Policy options
Physical and habitat states
An innovative decision-support tool for regional
decision makers where climate change scenarios
and policy response options are integrated with
information on sediment transport, biodiversity,
sea defences socio-economic activities.
Responses e.g. biodiversity
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Integrated modelling
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Virtual Reality GIS
Vulnerability Assessment
Simulator development
Geomorphology
Lincolnshire
Sediment transport cliff recession
The political arena
Biodiversity Tourism
Prototype Coastal Simulator
MCDA Stakeholders
East Anglia
Estuarine biogeochemistry
Estuarine model
Tiered Flood Risk
Essex
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Coastal erosion
Sediment supply from cliff
Profile shape
Cliff recession rate
Sediment transport rate
Shore orientation
Wave conditions, sea-level rise and tide
Beach volume and shape
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Governance and stakeholder interaction
County Councils
District Councils
English Nature
COASTAL MANAGEMENT AUTHORITIES
Environment Agency
Flood Defence Committees
Regional Development Authority
Countryside Agency
Chief Executive Planning
Strategy
Sustainability Partnerships
Statutory Coastal Management Plan
recreation
navigation
wildlife
farming
Consultative Forum
Co-decisional planning
commercial
fishing
local parishes
land ownership
Public Private Partnerships
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TyndallCentre for Climate Change Research
Headquarters School of Environmental
Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4
7TJ 01603 591375 www.tyndall.ac.uk