Our Environmental Future

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Our Environmental Future
Happy Birthday Gary!

• Gary Kass, Natural England
• FAN Club meeting
• 16 September 2009

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What is the environment?

• the complex of physical, chemical, and biotic
  factors (as climate, soil, and living things)
  that act upon an organism or an ecological
  community and ultimately determine its form and
  survival
• the aggregate of social and cultural conditions
  that influence the life of an individual or
  community www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/en
  vironment

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Our environmental future?

• Historically, our environment has been
  continually modified by human activity and
  natural processes
• The environment we have now is the consequence of
  the activities an accident of history rather
  than a deliberate design
• But now we are aware of our actions and their
  consequences
• So will we modify by accident or by design?

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An accidental or a deliberate future?

• We will continue to modify the environment
  through human activity
• Environmental conditions (atmosphere,
  hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and
  biosphere) will change
• What is the nature of this change? What is its
  scale over time and space?
• Will it matter? To whom? How do we judge? Can
  we speak for those with no voice (future
  generations or other species)? How do we act?

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Decisions, decisions

• All knowledge is about the past, all decisions
  are about the future
• Kenneth Boulding
• All risk management is political
• Kerry Whiteside, MIT
• The Great Transition politics of the future
• Voluntary or Directed

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Greenland Ice Sheet Is Melting Faster, Study Says
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Give us clarity on climate targets

• International Scientific Conference on Climate
  Change
• Should we be setting the bar higher? I need to
  know and I need to know now
• Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Danish Prime Minister, 12
  March 2009
• scientists need to be able to take off their
  labcoats sometimes and speak as concerned
  citizens...Risk managers, step up to the plate
• New Scientist editorial, 21 March 2009

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• Science provides the facts. Then politicians
  take their choice
• Ban Ki-moon, interview in the Guardian, 16/9

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Legitimacy in policy-making
Action
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But when evidence is lacking?
The will of the people
Delegated authority
Accountability
Action
Whim?
Follow the Herd?
Guesswork?
?
Advice
Ideology ?
Precaution ?
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We dont know in so many ways

• Knowledge of outcome

Knowledge of probability
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The limits of science

• in any scientific exercise there are ample
  opportunities, indeed it is virtually
  unavoidable, for the introduction subjective
  elements of value judgement in the course of
  planning, conducting and evaluating the process
  of scientific investigations.
• Robert J. Coleman, Director General, Health and
  Consumer Protection Directorate, European
  Commission 2002

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Precautionary politics

• Community policy on the environment...shall be
  based on the precautionary principle
• Article 174 of the EC Treaty
• where there are threats of serious or
  irreversible damage, the lack of full scientific
  certainty shall not be used as a reason for
  postponing cost-effective measures to prevent
  environmental degradation
• Rio Declaration on Environment and Development
  1992

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How precautionary?

• Decision-makers need to be aware of the degree
  of uncertainty attached to the results of the
  evaluation of the available scientific
  information. Judging what is an "acceptable"
  level of risk for society is an eminently
  political responsibility. Decision-makers faced
  with an unacceptable risk, scientific uncertainty
  and public concerns have a duty to find answers.
  Therefore, all these factors have to be taken
  into consideration.
• COM2000 (1) final (para 5)

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The ethical demands for precaution

• Democratising science (Bruno Latour, 1999)
• Contingencies in science require opening-up
• This demands better science risk evaluation and
  risk management options
• Principle of responsibility (Hans Jonas, 1984)
• Technology presents unprecedented risk
• This demands better politics to select policies
  from the spectrum of precautionary measures

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Bridging the precautionary divide
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Closing quotations

• the precautionary principle reflects an advance
  in our collective will to make our technological
  power consistent with ecological wellbeing
  (Whiteside, p.147)
• for the first time, progress consists in
  recognising our inability to master the world.
  The precautionary principle is a key ethical
  expression of that recognition. (Whiteside,
  p.xiii)

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Our environmental future

• The choices we make will determine its future
• What values will guide our choices?
• How will we make decisions?
• Its in our hands - well get what we deserve