FFC Standard Template - JAN08

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CDR Ashley Evans, USN Commanding Officer,
SGOT-SD
THIS BRIEF IS UNCLASSIFIED
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Somewhere in the Western Pacific
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Global Fleet Operations
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PANAMAX 2008
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Joint Logistics Over The ShoreJLOTS 2008
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JLOTS 2008 METOC Enabling Support
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EASTPAC Storms
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Battlespace On DemandLinking Forecasts to
Decisions
Making better decisions faster than the adversary
Decision superiority
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CNMOC 2009 Goal 3

• Prepare for Tomorrow
• Focus Battlespace on Demand ? Decision Support
• Intuitive, accessible GIS-based products
  embedded in Navy/Joint C4I
• Navy / National Weather Ocean Modeling Strategy
• Develop selected Decision Layer (Tier III)
  products
• Speed to Capability
• Play a critical role in
• UUVs
• Undersea Warfare Advances
• Climate Change / Arctic Ops
• Energy Alternatives and Efficiency
• Expand Joint Wx operations with USAF and NOAA

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Gaps in Support
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When - WESTPAC 2004 Typhoon Tracks
CONSIDERED AN AVERAGE TYHPOON SEASON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TROPICAL STORM
TYPHOON DATA FROM 30 JUL-15 OCT 2004
STORMS 12W TO 28W
PROVIDED BY JTWC NPMOC PEARL HARBOR
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JCSSG Western Pacific Deployment 2004METOC
Impacts
Sasebo - Tokyo Port Call (20-25 Aug) STY19W
Chaba TY20W - Aere
East China Sea (18-27 Aug) TS21W TY22W Songda 5
days Seas gt 8ft
Okinawa Area (7-16 Aug) TY15W Malou TY16W
Rananim TY18W Megi 8 days Seas gt 8 ft 2 days
flight ops cancelled 1 day flight ops shortened
South China Sea (28Aug - 17 Sep) TS23W 1 day
flight ops shortened 3 days Seas gt 8ft 1 day
with ceilings lt 300 Malacca Strait waterspout
Gulf of Alaska (2-16 Jun) 2 Major Storm Systems 3
days flight ops cancelled 1 day flight ops
shortened 4 days of Seas gt 8ft 2 days with
ceilings lt 300 6 STW missions to PARC no drop
due to WX (clouds) 20 days with SST lt 50
Guam Area (11-16 Oct) TY27W Tokage TY28W
Nock-Ten 2 days flight ops cancelled 1 day flight
ops shortened 4 days of Seas gt 8ft 1 days with
ceilings lt 300
Hawaii OPAREA (29 Jun - 26 Jul) 5 STW missions
to PTA no drop due to WX (clouds)
Eastern Australia Ocean (20Sep 8 Oct) 1 day
flight ops cancelled 1 day flight ops shortened
6 days of Seas gt 8ft 2 STW missions to Lancelin
range no drop due to WX (clouds)
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Environmental Decision Superiority for the 21st
Century Patton and Halsey
Adapted from the movie Patton (1970)
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Smart Climatology Analysis MethodsLong Term
Fluctuations and Trends SST, East China Sea,
Jul-Sep
Smart Climatology
Traditional Climatology
T (oC)
year
SST (oC), East China Sea, Jul-Sep, 1969-2006.
Note pronounced interannual variations and long
term positive trend.
Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution
of the climate system, and updates climate
statistics accordingly.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program
Advanced Climatology course project.
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Smart Climatology Data SetsEvaporation Duct
Heights
Smart Climatology
Existing Navy Climatology
Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and
visualization tools to produce more detailed,
accurate, and operationally useful products.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.
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Smart Climatology Data SetsEvaporation Duct
Heights
Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and
visualization tools to produce more detailed,
accurate, and operationally useful products.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.
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Smart Climatology Long Lead PredictionTropical
Cyclone Genesis Prediction, Western North Pacific
Method very applicable to probabilistic forecasts
of TC intensity and track.
Analyses of climate scale relationships between
large scale environment and TCs leads to
predictions of TC activity at leads of weeks to
months.
Apply smart climo methods to develop systems for
producing weekly to seasonal predictions of the
upper ocean and the atmosphere that drives it.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program
Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR D. Meyer.
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ASW Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Jan08
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Probabilistic Forecast Techniques and Ensemble
Modeling
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Typhoon Dolphin
Typhoon gt 64 Kts Tropical
Storm 34 63 Kts Tropical Depression lt
34 Kts Remnant Low lt 25 Kts
Rain Total 4 8 inches Storm Surge N/A Wave
Heights 20 24 feet Near Center of Storm
o
L
Kadena
Fri 19/06Z 20G30Kt
Thu 18/06Z 40G50Kt
Thu 18/06Z 40G50Kt
Wed 17/18Z 55G70Kt
Wed 17/00Z 60G75Kt
Image Valid 17/06Z
Typhoon Categories Typhoon 64 129 Kts Super
Typhoon gt130 Kts
Location Current HURCON Closest Point Of Approach
Kadena N/A 486NM (18/18Z)
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Key Fleet Capabilities for 21st Century Support

• Data, Data, Data
• Globally connected with links to other services,
  multinational, federal, and state agencies
• Smart Climatology and hybrid LRF
• Without a robust data feed - marginal results
• Global Model (NOGAPS/GFS) Ensemble Feed as
  Initial Conditions for Tropical Cyclone Models
  and meso-scale models
• Develop first order sensitivity guidance for
  military forecaster use with Ensembles
• Google Presentation Feed for the Millennium
  Generation
• Standardized
• Built to the sailors cognitive environment

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Questions