PFAA Conference Winter Outlook 200506

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PFAA Conference Winter Outlook 2005-06

• Jon Davis
• Chesapeake Energy
• November 4, 2005

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How We Got Here

• Cold Spring
• Hot Summer
• The 2005 Tropical Season

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Cool Spring
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Heating Season 2004-05 A Cool End in the East
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Summer Rankings
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The Tropical Season 2005
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Hurricane Katrina
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Hurricane Rita
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Katrinas Peak Winds
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Chevron Typhoon Platform Capacity 60,000
MCF/day and 40,000 bpd
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The Outline

• The Winter Outlook Variables
• Hot summer and unprecedented tropical season
  cold winter?
• SSTs (North Atlantic, North Pacific, and
  Equatorial Pacific)
• Pre-season snow cover
• Solar and volcanic activity
• Conclusions and Expected Intra-seasonal Trends

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Hot summers and active tropical seasons is
there a relationship with winter?
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Trend
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SSTs
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ATLANTIC BOX
PACIFIC BOX
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Autumn Snow Cover
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• Global Angular Momentum
• Solar Activity
• Volcanic Activity

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Variable Integration

• Trend warm
• North Atlantic SSTs warm
• North Pacific SSTs warm east / cold west
• Equatorial Pacific SSTs No bias
• Autumn snow cover warm
• Angular Momentum Normal or warm east / cold
  west
• Solar Activity Normal or cold
• Volcanic Activity warm
• Most variables point in the warm direction,
  especially for the Eastern U.S./southeast Canada.
  
• Most likely area for coldest conditions Western
  U.S./southwest Canada
• Foreign areas East Asia warmer bias, Europe
  warm west/cold east.

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