The Earths Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications Azadeh Tabazadeh

1
Causes and Effects of Climate Change in the 21st
Century
Azadeh Tabazadeh Geophysics Dept.
2
Solar Radiation
The Earths Energy Imbalance 1 W/m2
238 W/m2
239 W/m2
Terrestrial Radiation
3
Composition of the Atmosphere
Greenhouse Gases Water Vapor (H2O) Carbon
Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Ozone (O3)
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
--gt Clouds
Aerosols
4
Direct Sources of GHGs
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
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Indirect Sources of GHGs
Land-Use Change
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Measured Changes in GHGs
(ppm)
(ppb)
(ppb)
IPCC (2001)
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Air pollution and Ozone
8
Observed Changes in Ozone Concentration
Midlatitude NH
20 Increase
IPCC (2001)
9
F
Sources of CFCs
C
F
F
F
Coolant Fluid
Foam-Blowing Agents
Aerosol Spray Propellants
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Past, Present and Future Abundance of CFCs
CFCs (ppt)
1950
2000
2050
2100
Year
WMO (2001)
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Heat Entrapment by GHGs
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Fox News, 2001
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Greenhouse Gases and Temperature Trends
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions
U.S. (22.6)
Europe/Africa Central and South America (33.8)

Other (19.6)
India (4.2)
China (13.9)
Russia (5.9)
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White and Dark Aerosols
White aerosols reflect sunlight
and cool Dark
aerosols absorb sunlight and warm
(Sulfate Aerosols)
(Soot Aerosols)
Organic Aerosols?
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Global and Regional Sulfur Emissions
Gigagram of Sulfur
Stern (Chemosphere, 2003)
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Sulfate Aerosols
Sulfate Aerosols
Organic Aerosols
Organic Aerosols
Soot Aerosols
Soot Aerosols
IPCC (2001)
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Clouds Reflect Sunlight and Cool
Indirect Effect
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Climate Forcing (1850-2000)
W/m2
The Policy Chart
IPCC (2001)
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The Earths Energy Imbalance( 1 W/m2)
Where is the heat going?
Atmosphere
Ocean
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Air surface temperature is rising
IPCC (2001)
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Climate Model Predictions
Temperature Anomalies in oC
IPCC (2001)
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The ocean heat content is increasing
Average Model Run
Observations
Hansen et al. (Science, 2005)
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Early Detection of Global Warming
1W/m2
Warmer air
Warmer water
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Summertime Annual Sea Ice Minimum
2003
1979
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Greenland ice sheet is shrinking
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Antarctic glaciers are receding
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Mountain glaciers are melting
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Kilimanjaro snowcap is disappearing
February 1993
February 2000
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Melting of Ice
Rivers discharging more water
Washing off shorelines
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32
Florida land loss for 1m of sea-level rise
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The ocean heat content-Hurricanes
Average Model Run
Observations
Hansen et al. (Science, 2005)
34
Hurricane intensity SST anomaly
Sea surface temperature anomaly (oC)
Major hurricanes ( 4 and above)
Chandeleur Islands
Emanuel (Nature, 2005)
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Future Projections CO2 and Temperature
CO2 (ppm)
IPCC (2001)
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Policy to address global warming