URBAN LAND INSTITUTE

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URBAN LAND INSTITUTE

• HOUSTON AREA
• DEMOGRAPHIC UPDATE
• December 11, 2009

Population and Survey Analysts 303 Anderson
Street, College Station, TX 77840 info_at_pasademogr
aphics.com
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Population and Survey Analysts

• Largest Demographic Firm in Texas
• Work Only with School Districts
• Work with Approximately 30-35 Districts per Year
• Has a 20 Year Relationship with Real Estate
  Experts and City Planners in Houston Metro Area
• Demographic Team includes Specialists in
  Economics, Geography, Legal Issues, and GIS
  Systems

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Population and Survey AnalystsThe Consultants
Pat Guseman, Ph.D. President
Stacey Tepera, Ph.D.
Kris Pool, J.D.
Chris Russell, M.S.
Justin Silhavy
Ry Blaisdell
Chandra Jackson
Grant Guseman
Garrett Moring
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Recent Clients (2006-2007)(School Districts in
Yellow are in the Houston Area)
Frisco I.S.D. Galveston I.S.D. Goose Creek
C.I.S.D. Hays C.I.S.D. Humble I.S.D. Katy
I.S.D. Klein I.S.D. La Porte I.S.D. Lake Travis
I.S.D. Lamar C.I.S.D. Laredo I.S.D. Leander
I.S.D. Lewisville I.S.D. Lovejoy I.S.D. Manor
I.S.D.
Mansfield I.S.D. Montgomery I.S.D. Mt. Pleasant
I.S.D. Navasota I.S.D. Needville I.S.D. Northwest
I.S.D. Richardson I.S.D. Royal I.S.D. Splendora
I.S.D. Spring I.S.D. Tyler I.S.D. Waller
I.S.D. Wichita Falls I.S.D.
Allen I.S.D. Angleton I.S.D. Barbers Hill
I.S.D. Bryan I.S.D. Cedar Hill I.S.D. College
Station I.S.D. Conroe I.S.D. Crosby I.S.D. Dallas
I.S.D. Dayton I.S.D. DeSoto I.S.D. Duncanville
I.S.D. Elgin I.S.D.
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Houston Area Student Growth -- and the Advantage
That One School District Has Over Another in
Regard to Growth

• Historical growth for the last five years (2001
  through 2006) indicates the high growth in many
  northern, western, and southwestern school
  districts, including Montgomery I.S.D. in the far
  north as the highest growth district.
• This data must be viewed in both increase and
  in the numeric increase of new students.
• A rough approximation of total added population
  can be developed using weights relative to the
  new students added to a district.
• Growth for the past year of official enrollment
  data is also included on the slides i.e., for
  the Fall of 2005 relative to the Fall, 2006.
• Finally, the estimated enrollment for this Fall
  (2007) is compared to the Fall of 2006 and the
  implications of growth and decline per sector of
  the Houston area is discussed where green
  means accelertion of growth relative to the past
  school year and yellow means warning slower
  growth.

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Projections of Future Housing

• Projections of no. of new homes for currently
• active subdivisions
• Projections of no. of new homes for rural parcels
  
• of 2 to 5 acres or more with greater than
  50
• probability of development
• Projections of multi-family units, townhomes,
• lofts
• Use of control factors regarding leading
  indicators
• of employment and other leading indicators
• Calculate ratios of students per occupied home
• per current subdivision

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Why project new housing forward annually for 5
and even 10 years when there are so many
reasons that the data could be less reliable
with time ? We know that this data will have to
be revised, but -- for school districts the
knowledge of current plats is not sufficient, in
that long-range projections are needed to build
new schools in optimum locations, to plan for
stable attendance zones, to plan for the total
number of new schools needed, and the new
schools timing in order to have bond elections.
Having only current plats does not allow
sufficient long-term planning for school
districts to be good planners. Thus, we need
to use projections of long-range plans when there
is a probability greater than 50 of occurrence
per subdivision or of multi-family development,
keeping in mind that they can be substitution
effects i.e., one parcel may not develop, but
another nearby tract due to the locational
configuration of demand for housing --
substitutes for it. An example for Katy I.S.D.
follows, based on housing projections by
subdivision and multi-family complexes for
2007-2012 and 2012-2017.
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Projected Additional Housing Occupancies
New Housing Maps
October, 2007-12
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Projected Additional Housing Occupancies
New Housing Maps
Oct. 2012-17
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What Determines Which SchoolDistricts Will Grow
or Accelerate?

• Need strong quality of life factors measured
• by the disadvantaged students (correlates
  90
• with median housing values, median income
• median educational levels of adults) AND
• measured by school districts test scores
• Need good developable parcels i.e., district
• cannot be built-out nor remainder in flood
  plain
• Need good travel times to work (good access)
• and/or plans for improved access

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Economically Disadvantaged Students Fall, 2006
Large Houston Area Districts
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Growth in Hispanic Students Relative to Total
Student Population in the Houston Area 2001-2006
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The American Community Survey

• An annual survey conducted by the Census Bureau
  that will replace the long form of the Census.
• Allows for yearly demographic, economic and
  social data comparisons.
• ACS samples around 3 million housing units
  annually.
• The 2006 ACS has data geographic areas with a
  population of 65,000 or more.
• In 2008, data will be released for geographic
  areas with populations of 20,000 or larger and in
  2010 will be released at the level of census
  tracts and block groups nationwide.

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Data gathered from the American Community Survey
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Data gathered from the American Community Survey
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Data gathered from the American Community Survey
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Data gathered from the American Community Survey
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Data gathered from the American Community Survey
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Data gathered from the American Community Survey
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Data gathered from the American Community Survey
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Data gathered from the American Community Survey
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Annual Employment Trends
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Annual Employment Trends
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Shift-Share Analysis of Employment Trends
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Data gathered from the American Community Survey
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Most-Likely Scenario for High Growth Houston
Suburban Districts Assumptions

• Interest rates do not increase by more than 2
  percent over current levels in next 3 yrs.
• Continued availability of affordable new housing
• Housing occupancies continue to grow at 82-85
  of past three-year levels (across price
  categories)
• Iraq and other global concerns do not accelerate
• There is no significant change in the percent of
  immigrants entering the Houston area since
  inner Houston area growth spawns out-migration to
  suburban school districts

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SPRAWL GOOD OR BAD?
MOST MASS TRANSIT SYSTEMS HAVE DECLINED OR HELD
STEADY IN RIDERSHIP NEED TO SUPPORT ALL TYPES
OF TRANSPORTATION (RAIL GASOLINE-FUELED
VEHICLES MAY BE REPLACED) NEW INFRASTRUCTURE --
INCLUDING NEW SCHOOLS -- AND LESS COSTLY HOUSING
-- BOTH FUEL SUBURBAN GROWTH PLACES OF WORK AND
PLAY TEND TO FOLLOW RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT TO
THE SUBURBS
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Continued High Growth in Some Suburban Districts
Due to Births Alone

• In summing the data presented, the key emphasis
  has been on the use of school district
  demographic data for
• examining the growth of small areas down to the
  subdivision level and for
• evaluating the competitive advantage that one
  school district has over another in regard to
  growth factors and socioeconomic characteristics.
• The last slide to follow indicates that, even
  with downturn in housing in some locations within
  school districts, there can still remain high
  growth for the school district population. This
  last slide suggests that we could fence in each
  and every school district in the Houston area
  and allow no one in or out -- and still have high
  growth due to births this slide indicates the
  growth expected for Katy I.S.D. due to births
  aged 5 years to project Kindergarten students.

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