Causality Loop

1
Causality Loop

• The Risk of Human Activity
• Brandon Gustafson

2
General Description

• Given Population
• Participates in activities which increase welfare
• Goods and Services are in demand to provide for
  these activities
• Goods and services require materials

3
General Description

• Materials flow causes pollution of varying
  concentrations
• Pollutants at varying concentrations have varying
  effects
• Each effect posses different risks to humans

4
General Description

• These risks in turn effect our welfare
• Our welfare being effected causes us to develop
  policy for action
• These actions lead to a changes in our activity

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The Risk of Human Activity
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Key Features

• The entire process functions in a loop
• Each action is connected to overall welfare
• Overall welfare affects future action
• Ideally an equilibrium is reached between
  increased welfare from action and decreased
  welfare from risk

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Example

• People like to consume electricity
• They use it to increase their personal utility or
  welfare everyday
• To meet the demands power companies have to
  generate enough electricity

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California Electricity

• 33.9 Million people used 78 TWh of electricity in
  2000 in California
• 61.9 kWh per dollar () GSP
• Or, 2300 kWh per person

9
California Pollution

• Raw materials such as coal and other fossil fuels
  flow to power production plants
• Pollution is produced
• Pollution per kWh is listed below for 8 major
  pollutants

CO2 lbs/kWh NOx lbs/kWh SO2 lbs/kWh Hg lbs/kWh PM10 lbs/kWh PM2.5 lbs/kWh VOC lbs/kWh CO lbs/kWh
California 1.185 0.000963 .000319 1x10-10 0.000020 0.000019 0.000061 0.000401
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California Concentration
CO2 lbs NOx lbs SO2 lbs Hg lbs PM10 lbs PM2.5 lbs VOC lbs CO lbs
California 2725.5 2.2149 0.7337 2.3x10-7 0.046 0.0437 0.1403 0.9223

• Table depicts the amount of pollution per person
• This type of pollution can lead to concentration
  levels of as much as 10 ppb in smoggy LA

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California Effects

• The effects of these pollutants are mild and
  severe
• Respiratory problems to simply impaired
  visibility
• Especially the young, the old, and the asthmatic

12
California Risks

• The risk depends on the person
• Each year 50,000 people are estimated to have
  died from air pollution
• Those with lung conditions already are at the
  greatest risk
• Although, we are all at elevated risk at these
  concentrations

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Welfare to Action

• Reduced health and death reduce welfare
• Reduced welfare spurs action
• Governmental agencies set pollution limits
• California Air Resources Board website goes online

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Types of Actions

• To increase welfare and/or reduce risk
• Reducing the population would reduce risk
• Reducing activity will decrease risk but also
  decrease welfare
• Use less materials
• Output lower concentrations of pollutants
• Output pollutants that have less effect and
  associated risk

15
Summary

• The Causation Loop of Human Activity is a
  self-balancing cycle
• Human welfare is adjusted up and down
  respectively by increased human activity which
  leads to increased risk
• Ideally an equilibrium is reached by action and
  counter action
• There are many ways that people are working on to
  react to the current situation