Carey Jang, Ph'D', Air Quality Modeling Group

1
Applications of Models-3/CMAQ U.S., Asia, and
Trans-Pacific Modeling
Carey Jang, Ph.D., Air Quality Modeling
Group Office of Air Quality Planning Standards,
U.S. EPA, RTP, NC
Univ. of Houston Workshop, 12/16/03
2
Regional AQ Modeling Applications at EPA/OAQPS
Trans-Pacific (ICAP) Modeling Domain
China Modeling Domain
U.S. Modeling Domain
36 km eastern US domain
4 km domain
12 km domain
12 km western US domain
36 km western US domain
36 km Annual National US domain
3
Ozone PM2.5 (Annual Simulations)
PM 2.5
Ozone
(July 1996, monthly max.)
(July 1996, monthly avg.)
4
U.S. Modeling PM 2.5 Speciation (July)
Sulfate PM
Nitrate PM
15
5
Black Carbon
Organic PM
2.5
5
5
PM2.5 Benefits of Emission Reductions (July Avg.)
- 50 NOx
- 50 SO2
-4
-4
- 50 VOC
- 50 NH3
-0.4
-4
6
PM2.5 Benefits of Emission Reductions (Jan. Avg.)
- 50 NOx
- 50 SO2
-4
-4
- 50 VOC
- 50 NH3
-2
-4
7
Impact of 50 NOx Reduction (July Avg.)
Ozone - (decrease)
PM 2.5 - (decrease)
-4
-12
Nitrate PM - (decrease)
Sulfate PM - (decrease)
-2
-2
8
Formation of Secondary PM (PM2.5)
Sulfate PM formation H2SO4 2 NH3 ---gt
(NH4)2SO4 (s) Gas Phase SO2 OH
---gt H2SO4 Aqueous Phase
S(IV) H2O2 ---gt H2SO4 (Dominate over low
pH) S(IV) O3 ---gt H2SO4
Organic PM formation VOC OH, O3, NO3
Gas Phase ---gt Condensable VOC products
(semi-volatile) Aerosol Phase ---gt SOA
Long-chain VOC (C7 above),
Aromatics, Biogenic VOC (terpene)
Nitrate PM formation HNO3 NH3 lt---gt
NH4NO3 (aq,s) Gas Phase
(daytime) NO2 OH ---gt HNO3 Gas
Heterogeneous Phase (night) N2O5
H2O ---gt HNO3
9
Impact of 50 NOx Reduction (July Avg.)
Ozone - (decrease)
PM 2.5 - (decrease)
-4
-12
Nitrate PM - (decrease)
Sulfate PM - (decrease)
-2
-2
10
Impact of 50 NOx Reduction (Jan. Avg.)
Ozone (increase)
-4
12
PM 2.5 - (decrease)
Nitrate PM - (decrease)
Sulfate PM (increase)
-4
2
11
Impact of 50 SO2 Reduction (July Avg.)
Ozone (no change)
PM 2.5 - (decrease)
-4
0
-5
Nitrate PM (increase)
1
Sulfate PM - (decrease)
12
Impact of 50 SO2 Reduction (Jan. Avg.)
PM 2.5 - (decrease)
Ozone (no change)
-4
0
Nitrate PM (increase)
Sulfate PM - (decrease)
-1
0.6
13
Impact of 50 NH3 Reduction (July Avg.)
PM 2.5 - (decrease)
Ozone (no change)
-4
0
-0.5
-2
Sulfate PM - (decrease)
Nitrate PM - (decrease)
14
Impact of 50 NH3 Reduction (Jan. Avg.)
PM 2.5 - (decrease)
Ozone (no change)
-4
0
-3
Sulfate PM - (decrease)
-1.5
Nitrate PM - (decrease)
15
Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects
of Air Pollutants (ICAP) EPAs International
Modeling Project
Carey Jang and Dennis Doll, USEPA/OAQPS
16
EPAs ICAP Project

• Issues of Interest
• Intercontinental Transport of Air Pollutants
• Climatic Effect of Air Pollutants
• ICAP EPAs international Modeling Project
• Phase 1 (10/2001 10/2002)
• Phase 2 (01/2003 10/2004)
• http//www.cep.unc.edu/empd/projects/ICAP

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• ICAP Project Team
• USEPA/OAQPS ORD Project Lead Sponsor,
  Regional Air Quality Modeling (Jang Doll)
• UNC-Chapel Hill Regional Met. Emission
  Modeling (Carolina Environmental Program, Hanna)
• DOE/Argonne Lab Global/Regional Emission
  Inventories (Streets)
• Stanford Univ. Global Climate/Chemistry Modeling
  (Jacobson)
• Harvard Univ. Global Chemistry/Transport
  Modeling (Jacob)
• Univ. of Iowa Emission Inventories/Processing
  (Woo)
• Univ. of Tennessee Emission Processing (Fu)
• Washington Univ. Integrated model data
  analysis (Husar)
• NCSU Modeling analysis climate modeling (Xie)
• Univ. of Houston Global Regional Modeling
  Linkages (Byun)

18
Intercontinental Transport of Pollutants

• Intercontinental transport of air pollutants
  could impact US air quality and NAAQS attainment
• Asian emissions enhance O3 PM background
  burdens (Jacob/GRL/1999, Fiore/JGR/2002,
  Jaffe/AE/2002 Jacob/RPO/2003, Bachmann/EM/2003)
• Importance of impacts will increase in the future
  due to rapid growth in Asian emissions
  (Streets/AE/20012003)
• US is both an importer and exporter of pollutants

19
Air Quality and Climate Change Links

• Air pollutants could be important contributors to
  climate Change
• O3 and PM could be as important as CO2 in
  contributing to global warming regional climate
  change
• (Hansen, PNAS, 2001 Menon, Hansen others,
  Science, 2002)
• Black carbon could be the second largest after
  CO2 contributing to global warming (Jacobson,
  Nature, 2001)

20

Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants

CO2 (1.4)
O3 (0.4)
Black (0.8) Carbon
CH4 (0.7)
Estimated Change of Climate Forcing between 1850
and 2000
(Hansen et al., PNAS, 2001)
21
Status and Progress of ICAP project

• ICAP Phase 1 (10/2001 - 10/2002)
• Advance Scientific Knowledge and Info. Exchange
  ICAP workshop (12/2001)
• Global Modeling and emission inventory of Ozone
  and PM Three collaborative projects
• Global Modeling of Ozone and Related Oxidants
  (Harvard Univ., Daniel Jacob)
• Global and Regional Climate Impact of Aerosols
  (Stanford Univ., Mark Jacobson)
• Emission Inventories for Climate-Forcing
  Pollutants (DOE/Argonne Lab, David Streets)
• Completed Final Report and Modeling Protocol for
  Phase II (UNC-CEP, Adel Hanna)
  (http//www.cep.unc.edu/empd/projects/ICAP)

22
ICAP Phase 2 (01/2003 10/2004)
In-house intercontinental/regional modeling of
Ozone, PM, and Hg
Models-3/CMAQ Trans-Pacific modeling Domain
23
ICAP Emissions Data Preparation Processing
NOx Emissions
(VOC)
VOC (PAR) Emissions
24
U.S. emissions
Canada emissions
Mexico emissions
25
Asian emissions data (TRACE-P ACE/Asia)
Energy/ Emission
Regional Emis.
GIS
Remote Sensing /etc.
FC
AI
Precipitation
Courtesy of Dr. Jung-Hun Woo, Univ. of Iowa
26
Large Point Sources
Industry
Transportation
Smaller Power
Biomass Burning
Domestic Fossil Fuel
Shipping
Aviation
FC
AI
27
ICAP Trans-Pacific Modeling Domain
Trans-Pacific Transport of Air Pollutants PM
28
ICAP Trans-Pacific Modeling Domain
Trans-Pacific Transport of Air Pollutants PM
29
ICAP Trans-Atlantic Modeling Domain
Trans-Atlatic Models-3/CMAQ Modeling Domain
30
Air Quality Climate Change Links

• PM (black carbon) and ozone are important
  contributors to Climate Change
• Reductions in ozone and PM (black carbon) will
  not only help curb climate change, but also
  improve air quality and protect human health
  (Hansen, GISS Jacobson, Stanford Univ., 2002)

31
Smog in Beijing, China (1999/11/4, Noon)
Dr. Yang, EPA/OIA
India Today (1996)
Dr. Dickson, U. Maryland
32
PM2.5 (January average)
U.S.
China
30
150
(January 1996, monthly avg.)
(Jan. 4-20, 2001, episode avg.)
33
BC and OC
U. S.
China
5
50
January 1996 (monthly average)
January 2001 (monthly average)
34
Temperature Change (oC) between 1951-2000
Summer
(Menon, Hansen others, Science, 2002)
35
China Pollutant Cloud (Jan., 2002)
China
Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) (Jan. 2001)
India
By NASA TERRA/MODIS
36
Food for Thought

• Is global warming the main concern of climate
  change?
• How about changes in regional seasonal
  meteorological patterns, hydrological cycles,
  etc.?
• Does it take decades to see impacts of climate
  change? Or is it happening much faster?
• Long-term impact of GHG (CO2, CH4, etc.) vs.
  short-term impact of air pollutants (BC, O3,
  SO4-, etc.)
• Is radiative forcing is a good indicator?
• Probably not, indirect effects impacts (e.g.,
  aerosols clouds interactions) could be more
  significant! But are there better indicators?

37
ICAP Plan for FY04-05

• Expand efforts beyond modeling emission work
  intra-agency collaborations within EPA (ORD
  OAP)
• Initiate/continue collaborations with leading
  research scientists (NASA, NOAA, Universities,
  etc.)
• Planned activities
• Integrate model with satellite and
  surface/aircraft data
• Conduct policy-relevant assessment on future
  scenarios
• Continue to improve global/regional emission
  inventories
• Develop apply an integrated climate/chemistry
  model
• Conduct integrated assessment of AP regional
  climate

38
ICAP Plan FY04-05

• Planned activities
• Integrate with observational data to better
  quantify the impacts of intercontinental
  transport
• Satellite data (MODIS, TOMS, GOME, etc.) remote
  sensing data (AERONET)
• Surface-based data aircraft data (TRACE-P,
  ITCT, etc.)
• Continue intercontinental regional modeling
  assessment for selected current future
  policy-relevant emissions scenarios
• Continue to support development of improved
  emission inventories and future emission
  scenarios
• Develop apply an integrated model with coupled
  meteorology and chemistry (e.g., MM5 CMAQ)
• Conduct a pilot study on integrated environmental
  health climate assessment of air pollution over
  key emissions-growing regions such as Asia

39
ICAP Plan FY04-05

• Planned activities
• Integrate satellite (MODIS, TOM, GOME, etc.)
  observations and surface-based (AERONET)
  aircraft (ITCT, TRACE-P) data with model
  simulation results to better quantify the impacts
  of ICAP.
• Conduct modeling assessment for selected current
  future policy-relevant emission scenarios
• Base year (2001) emission reduction scenarios
  (regions, source categories, pollutants, etc.)
• Future year (2030) IPCC scenarios (A1B B1)
• Continue to support development of improved
  emission inventories and future emission
  scenarios
• Develop apply an integrated model with coupled
  meteorology and chemistry (e.g., MM5 CMAQ)
• Conduct a pilot study on integrated environmental
  health climate assessment of air pollution over
  key emissions-growing regions such as Asia

40
ICAP Plan FY04-05

• Planned activities
• Integrate satellite (MODIS, TOM, GOME, etc.)
  observations and surface-based aircraft (ITCT,
  TRACE-P) data with model simulation results to
  better quantify the impacts of ICAP.
• Continue intercontinental regional modeling
  efforts for impact assessment under selected
  current future policy-relevant emissions
  scenarios
• Continue to support development of improved
  emission inventories and future emission
  scenarios
• N.H. regions (Asia, Russia, Europe)
• Source categories (biomass burning, coal, diesel,
  domestic fossil, biogenic, etc.)
• Emitted pollutants (BC, VOCs, NOx, SO2, CH4, NH3,
  etc.)
• Develop apply an integrated model with coupled
  meteorology and chemistry (e.g., MM5 CMAQ)
• Conduct a pilot study on integrated environmental
  health climate assessment of air pollution over
  US and key emissions-growing regions such as Asia

41
ICAP Plan FY04-05

• Planned activities
• Integrate satellite (MODIS, TOM, GOME, etc.)
  observations and surface-based aircraft (ITCT,
  TRACE-P) data with model simulation results to
  better quantify the impacts of ICAP.
• Continue intercontinental regional modeling
  efforts for impact assessment under various
  current future policy-relevant emissions
  projection scenarios
• Continue to support development of improved
  emission inventories and future emission
  scenarios
• Develop apply an integrated regional model with
  coupled meteorology and chemistry (e.g., MM5/WRF
  CMAQ)
• Conduct a pilot study on integrated assessment of
  regional air quality and climate benefits over
  U.S. and key emissions-growing regions, e.g., Asia

42
Regional AQ Modeling Applications at EPA/OAQPS
Trans-Pacific (ICAP) Modeling Domain
China Modeling Domain
U.S. Modeling Domain
36 km eastern US domain
4 km domain
12 km domain
12 km western US domain
36 km western US domain
36 km Annual National US domain
43
Air Pollution Control in 21st Century
State/ Multi-Counties
Federal/ Multi-State
City /Town
County
International
1920 1950 1970 1980 1990
2000
44
Questions ??????
45
Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects
of Air Pollutants (ICAP) EPAs International
Modeling Project
Carey Jang and Dennis Doll, USEPA/OAQPS OAR-ORD
Coordination Meeting, Dec. 9, 2003
46
ICAP Phase 2 (01/2003 10/2004)

• In-house intercontinental/regional modeling of
  Ozone, PM, and Hg
• Complete preparations of emissions,
  meteorological, and BC/IC data (from global
  GEOS-CHEM model) by January 2004
• Complete annual 2001 Base case trans-Pacific CMAQ
  simulation for O3 PM by Spring 2004
• Conduct future scenarios (IPCC 2030 A1B B1)
  case simulation and Hg modeling by Summer 2004
• Conduct trans-Atlantic modeling for O3, PM, and
  Hg by Fall 2004
• Final reports publications by end of 2004

47
ICAP Phase 2 (01/2003 10/2004)

• Conduct In-house intercontinental/regional
  modeling for assessing issues related to ICAP
• Continue to collaborate with leading scientists
  on issues related to ICAP
• UNC-CEP (Hanna) Regional AQ climate modeling
• Harvard (Jacob) global modeling, global/regional
  model link
• Stanford (Jacobson) global climate/chemistry
  modeling
• DOE/Argonne lab (Streets) global/regional
  emissions
• WUSL (Husar) model evaluation data analysis
• NCSU (Xie) modeling analysis regional climate
  modeling
• EPA/ORD (Gilliland Schere) Models-3/CMAQ
  regional modeling
• Univ. of Iowa (Woo) Emission Inventories/Processi
  ng
• Univ. of Tennessee (Fu) Emission Processing
• Univ. of Houston (Byun) global/regional model
  links

48
M3/CMAQ Applications at EPA/OAQPS

• U.S. Modeling Air Quality Modeling Group
  (Jang, Dolwick, Timin, Possiel, Tikvart,
  Evangelista, Braverman, Strum, etc.) in
  collaboration with EPA/ORD
• Intercontinental Modeling EPA (Jang Doll),
  UNC-CEP (Hanna), ANL (Streets), Harvard (Jacob),
  Stanford (Jacobson), U. of TN (Fu), U. of Iowa
  (Woo), NCSU (Xie), U. of Houston (Byun)
• East Asia Modeling EPA (Jang), U. of TN (Fu),
  ANL (Streets), U. of Iowa (Woo), NCSU (Xie
  Wang), China-SAES Tsinghua Univ.

49
Emission Reduction Scenarios Sulfate PM (July)
- 50 SO2
- 50 NOx
- 50 NH3
- 50 VOC
50
Emission Reduction Scenarios Nitrate PM (July)
- 50 SO2
- 50 NOx
- 50 NH3
- 50 VOC
51
Emission Reduction Scenarios Organic PM (July)
- 50 SO2
- 50 NOx
- 50 VOC
- 50 NH3
52
Emission Reduction Scenarios Ozone (July)
- 50 SO2
- 50 NOx
- 50 VOC
- 50 NH3
53
Emission Reduction Scenarios Sulfate PM (Jan.)
- 50 SO2
- 50 NOx
- 50 VOC
- 50 NH3
54
Emission Reduction Scenarios Nitrate PM (Jan.)
- 50 SO2
- 50 NOx
- 50 VOC
- 50 NH3
55
Emission Reduction Scenarios Organic PM (Jan.)
- 50 SO2
- 50 NOx
- 50 VOC
- 50 NH3
56
Emission Reduction Scenarios Ozone (Jan)
- 50 SO2
- 50 NOx
- 50 VOC
- 50 NH3
57
.OH Role in Linking Pollutants Formation
One-Atmosphere
PM2.5
SOx or NOx NH3 OH ---gt (NH4)2SO4
or NH4NO3
VOC OH ---gt Orgainic PM
One Atmosphere
Ozone
Visibility
One Atmosphere
Fine PM (Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM)
.OH
NOx VOC OH hv ---gt O3
Acid Rain
Water Quality
SO2 OH ---gt H2SO4
NOx SOx OH (Lake Acidification,
Eutrophication)
NO2 OH ---gt HNO3
OH lt---gt Air Toxics (POPs, Hg,
etc.)
Air Toxics
58
Regional AQ Modeling Applications at EPA/OAQPS
Trans-Pacific (ICAP) Modeling Domain
China Modeling Domain
U.S. Modeling Domain
36 km eastern US domain
4 km domain
12 km domain
12 km western US domain
36 km western US domain
36 km Annual National US domain
59
PM2.5 (January average)
China
U.S.
30
150
(Jan. 4-20, 2001, episode avg.)
(January 1996, monthly avg.)
60
U.S. Modeling PM 2.5 Speciation (Jan.)
Sulfate PM
Nitrate PM
4
10
Elemental Carbon
Organic PM
4
4
61
China Modeling PM 2.5 Speciation (Jan.)
Sulfate PM
Nitrate PM
40
40
Elemental Carbon
Organic PM
40
20
62
PM2.5 (July average)
U.S.
China
50
20
(July 4-20, 2001, episode avg.)
(July 1996, monthly avg.)
63
U.S. Modeling PM 2.5 Speciation (July)
Sulfate PM
Nitrate PM
15
5
Black Carbon
Organic PM
2.5
5
64
China Modeling PM 2.5 Speciation (July)
Sulfate PM
Nitrate PM
15
15
Black Carbon
Organic PM
15
5
65
BC and OC
U. S.
China
5
50
January 1996 (monthly average)
January 2001 (monthly average)
66
BC OC
7/2/01 00 GMT
7/2/01 12 GMT
67
Questions ??????
68
OUTLINE

• One-Atmosphere Modeling
• Linkages of PM and Ozone (and other pollutants)
• One Community Modeling System
• Urban, Regional, and Hemispheric Scales
• U.S., Trans-Pacific/Atlantic Regions, Asia

69
Air Quality Modeling over China Ozone
12-km
36-km
70
Projected Air Quality over China (July 4-20,
2001, episodic average)
2008 (Business as usual)
PM 2.5
(No change from 2001)
2008 (Growth Scenario)
2008 (Control Scenario)
(Man-made emissions 50)
(Man-made emissions -- 50)
71
Air Quality Modeling over China PM
PM 2.5
Sulfate PM
Organic PM
Nitrate PM
72
Air Quality Modeling over China Taiwan Model
Nesting
12-km
4-km
36-km
73
Nested Modeling at Different Grid Resolution PM
2.5
4-km (non-nested)
12-km
36-km
Taiwan (Jan. 4-20, 2001, episode avg.)
74
36/12/4km CMAQ Sulfate PM (Episodic Average)
12-km
4-km
36-km
Atlanta, Georgia (July 4-16, 1995)
75
36/12/4km CMAQ Cloud Fraction
4-km
12-km
Atlanta, Georgia (July 14, 1995), predicted by MM5