Resiliency of brook trout habitat to climate change

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Resiliency of brook trout habitat to climate
change

• Brad Trumbo
• James Madison University, Biology Department
• USDA Forest Service Fish and Aquatic Ecology Unit
• Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries

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Research Goals

• Rank individual brook trout habitats for their
  resiliency to climate change
• Use resiliency rankings for future management,
  protection, and restoration efforts of brook
  trout habitat.

USDA Forest Service Fish and Aquatic Ecology Unit
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Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) Range

• Brook Trout historically thrived from Maine to
  Georgia (17 states)

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Brook Trout Range

• Historically, Virginia brook trout habitat
  covered nearly the entire western portion of the
  state.

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Brook Trout Range

• Presently, Virginia brook trout habitat is
  reduced to relatively half of the historic range

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Under various climate change scenarios, brook
trout are predicted to be extirpated from the
state

• Flebbe et al. 2006. Spatial Modeling to Project
  Southern Appalachian Trout Distribution in a
  Warmer Climate. TAFS
• Clark et al. 2001. Predicting Climate Change
  Effects on Appalachian Trout Combining GIS and
  Individual Based Modeling. Ecological
  Applications.
• Meisner. 1990. Effect of Climatic Warming on the
  southern margins of the Native Brook Trout . CJAS

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Gloom and doom !
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Are small area refugia possible ?

• Small Area Influences
• Land use
• Riparian vegetation
• Springs
• Aspect
• Elevation
• Latitude
• Solar input

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Brook Trout Patches A new approach!

• Patches represent individual, non-networked
  habitat units
• Virginia currently has 272 patches

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Brook Trout Patch Delineation

• Used NHD Plus Catchment (7th level, 14 digit
  HUC?) GIS layer
• Categorized catchments into particular types of
  brook trout presence based on Virginia Trout
  Stream Sensitivity Survey (VTSSS)
• Dissolved contiguous catchment boundaries
  containing Sympatric or Allopatric brook trout
  populations with no dams impeding fish
  movement/genetic flow

• 16,303 Catchments in Virginia
• 2,188 Catchments contain brook trout

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Virginia Brook Trout Patches
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N 272
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Prioritize Patches

• Working Hypothesis
• Different patches have different air/water
  temperature relationships with predictable
  variability that can be used to model resiliency
  to climate change

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Choosing Patches for Sampling

• Various metrics summarized for each patch (GIS)
• Percent Riparian Canopy Cover
• Total Annual Riparian Area Solar Gain (kWh)
• Total forest area in each patch
• Pour Point Elevation
• 30 year annual mean max air temperature at the
  Pour Point
• Number of springs in each patch

• Cluster analysis used to group patches
• 50 of the 272 patches randomly selected from the
  cluster analysis groupings
• Paired air and water thermographs placed at the
  pour point and centroid of each sampled patch
  (50/272)

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Cluster Analysis

• How Does Cluster Analysis Work?
• Measures the degree of similarity between habitat
  patches across multiple variables
• Two types of measures
• Similarity coefficients
• Dissimilarity coefficients
• Tells us whether as one variable changes, another
  variable changes similarly
• Standardized measure so different variable units
  can be analyzed together

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Cluster Analysis

• Wards Minimum-Variance Method
• Defines distance between two clusters as the
  ANOVA sum of squares between the two clusters
  added up over all the variables
• Tends to join Clusters with small number of
  observations
• Sensitive to outliers

• Pseudo F Statistic
• Can be used to indicate statistically significant
  number of clusters
• Clustered patches using 5-11 clusters
• Pseudo F value greatest at 9 clusters

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Table Comparing Cluster Metrics
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Sampling Methods

• Paired air and water temperature data will be
  used to develop the unique sigmoid curve function
  for the pour point and centroid of each selected
  patch.
• The randomly selected patches will be used to
  model the remaining patches (cluster analysis
  groupings) (n 222).

centroid
Pour point
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Sample Duration

• Temperature data is being collected at 30 minute
  intervals for 17 months including two critical
  summer periods (July-September 15)
• Various temperature metrics
• will be plotted to detect critical limits as
  well as define the air/water temperature
  relationships.

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Thermograph Specifications

• Onset HOBO Water Temp Pro v2
• Operation Range -20 to 70C
• Accuracy 0.2C over 0 to 50C
• Resolution 0.02C at 25C
• Approximate Cost 102 each

For our study 50 patches X 4 HOBOs 200 HOBOs
102 per HOBO X 200 20,400
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Other Materials And Labor

• 2 crews
• 7 days
• 300 labor hours
• 3000 road miles

• 56 hiking miles
• 800 feet of copper wire
• 500 PVC
• 1600 protective HOBO sleeves

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Valuable Field Experiences

• 5 instances I realized I had misinterpreted the
  map
• 4 black bear encounters
• 3 employees asleep in the truck during travel at
  any given time
• 2 employees career paths decided for them
• 1 encounter involving a landowner with a firearm!
  

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Summary

• Working Hypothesis
• Different habitats have different air/water
  temperature relationships with predictable
  variability that can be used to model resiliency
  to climate change
• Identified unique brook trout patches
• Clustered patches by various metrics
• Sampled patches (n50) selected from cluster
  groupings
• Currently collecting air/water temperature data
  at pour point and centroid (17 months)
• Air/water temperature relationships to be modeled
  

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Acknowledgements
Committee Members Mr Mark Hudy (USFS) Dr
Bruce Wiggins (JMU) Dr Heather Griscom (JMU)

• James Madison University, Department of Biology
• US Forest Service
• VA Department of Game and Inland Fisheries
• Chas Kyger, Lisa Wise, Ali Fitzgerald (VT), Scott
  Riley (VT)
• Dr. Eric Smith Virginia Tech

USDA Forest Service Fish and Aquatic Ecology Unit