Natural Hazard Modeling

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Natural Hazard Modeling

• Techniques for Measuring Earthquake, Wind and
  Other Risks

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What is Computer-Based Natural-Hazard Modeling?

• Knowledge-based computer models
• Used for assessing risks (likelihood and
  severity)
• Best suited for complex exposures like
  earthquake, hurricane, flood, tornado, pandemic,
  terrorism...

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How Modeling is Used

• Estimating facility equipment damage
• Estimating downtime
• Estimating injuries
• Analyzing regional exposures

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Overview of the Process

• On-site data collection
• Computer modeling
• Choose EQ scenarios
• Estimate shaking intensity
• Calculate damage, downtime, etc
• Data analysis and reporting

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On-Site Data Collection

• Primary
• Construction type
• Year
• Height
• Address
• Occupancy type

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On-Site Data Collection (2)

• Secondary
• Shape
• Contents damageability
• Ornamentation
• Construction quality
• Fatigue/maintenance...

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On-Site Data Collection (3)

• Retrofits
• Bracing of key pieces of equipment

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On-Site Data Collection (4)

• Fire following
• Sprinkler leakage

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Computer Modeling

• Database of earthquake faults (or hurricane
  tracks)
• Expected likelihood and magnitude
• Choose scenarios

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Hayward Fault
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Computer Modeling (2)

• Attenuation function
• Database of soil types (or ground roughness)
• Determine shaking intensity at each site (or
  windspeed)

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Computer Modeling (3)

• Engineering tables estimate the damage, based on
  construction features and shaking intensity
• Secondary modifiers

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Outputs/Results

• Probable Maximum Loss
• Maximum Credible Earthquake
• Likelihood of experiencing small loss, medium
  loss, large loss
• Damage extent
• Downtime
• Dollar loss

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Outputs/Results (2)

• Equipment damage
• Earthquake scenarios
• Vulnerabilities
• Cost-benefit of retrofits
• Damage at primary-site vs secondary site
• Damage/downtime at each different facility

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Outputs/Results (3)

• Sprinkler leakage
• Fire following
• Storm surge

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Deliverables

• Loss estimates
• Recommendations for risk improvement
• Equipment damage
• Fire following
• Sprinkler leakage
• Earthquake scenarios
• Chart of magnitude vs. likelihood

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Common Models

• RMS EQ, Hurricane (including storm surge),
  Pandemic, Tornado, Hail, Flood, Terrorism
• AIR EQ, Hurricane, Terrorism, Tornado, Hail,
  Flood, Winter-storm
• EQE EQ, Hurricane, Tornado, Hail, Terrorism,
  Wildfire, Winter-storm
• St Risk EQ
• FEMA EQ, Hurricane, Flood

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Other Models

• MunicRe EQ, Hurricane, Flood
• LANL Pandemic, Wildfire
• DHS Pandemic
• Others Sinkhole, Toxic Plume, Fire/Smoke,
  Nuclear...

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Pandemic Modeling

• Information about your organization
• Headcount
• Geography
• Age and other demographics
• Historic data about past pandemics
• Infection rates
• Illness severity
• Mortality
• Scenarios based on
• 1800 different scenarios
• Likelihood vs severity
• Governments ability to implement response plans

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Pandemic Modeling (2)

• Absenteeism
• Week-by-week impacts
• Impacts of countermeasures
• Surge demand for IT

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Terrorism Modeling

• Location and headcount
• Thousands of U.S. targets
• Proximity to targets
• Potential attack modes bomb blast, aircraft,
  CBRN
• Neighborhood data (construction type, stories,
  size)

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Terrorism Modeling (2)

• Property damage
• Downtime
• Injuries and fatalities
• Impacts of countermeasures
• Frequency and severity

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Drivers for Choosing a Model

• Hazards to be analyzed
• EQ
• Wind
• Flood
• Pandemic
• Terrorism
• Wildfire

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Drivers for Choosing a Model (2)

• Number of facilities
• Single-site
• Campus
• Several facilities in 1 region
• 100's of facilities

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Drivers for Choosing a Model (3)

• What type of result is needed
• Downtime (weeks)
• Vulnerabilities and recommendations
• Cost-Benefit for retrofiting/upgrades
• Damage
• loss

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Drivers for Choosing a Model (4)

• Purpose for the modeling
• Risk transfer (insurance)
• Risk mitigation (retrofits/upgrades)
• Risk avoidance (site selection)

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Other Drivers

• Unusual facilities
• Electrical lines, bridge, underground piping,
  outdoor equipment/tanks, towers
• Location
• International
• U.S. regions

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How BC Professionals Can Use These Models

• Risk/vulnerability assessment
• Damage prediction
• Downtime
• Planning scenarios
• How many locations can be impacted at once
• Are facilities geographically remote enough...

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How BC Professionals Can Use These Models (2)

• Risk Mitigation
• Retrofits
• Fire following
• Sprinkler leakage
• Cost-benefit of mitigation options
• Data to support specific pandemic response
  programs

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How BC Professionals Can Use These Models (3)

• Risk Avoidance
• Site selection for primary sites
• Back-up facilities
• Sites sufficiently remote?
• EOC site selection...

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How BC Professionals Can Use These Models (4)

• Risk transfer (insurance)

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Case Study - Pharmaceutical

• Potential impacts at 2 separate sites
• Downtime estimates
• Risk mitigation (fire-following, sprinkler
  leakage)
• Cost-benefit of structural upgrade

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Case Study Drug RD

• Extent of damage for each building a campus
  arrangement
• Downtime estimates
• Planning scenarios

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Case Study Construction Materials Manufacturer

• Estimation of damage to critical equipment
• Downtime for critical equipment
• Simultaneous impacts at 2 separate sites?
• Impacts to critical infrastructure (electrical
  distribution, gas-piping, water mains)