Modelling

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Modelling

• Antoine Messean

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New findings - results

• Several gene flow models developed so far
• Pollen flow, feral dynamics, cropping systems
• Models have been used to explore the mechanisms
  linking biological processes and management
• Sensitivity analysis is a key tool for
  identifying the most relevant factors and
  critical observations necessary for validation
• Validation of Genesys has been carried out
• Models have been used for testing management
  measures
• Non-harvested stripes, set-aside management,
  biological containment measures
• and for setting up scenarios for co-existence
• Modelling for optimal design ? long distance gene
  flow experiments based on

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Points of discussion

• Wind vs insect role in oilseed rape
• How to model their respective role?
• Should we take it into account?
• How to take into account the diversity?
• Sophisticated models or random variables?
• Stochastic vs deterministic models
• More data required for assessing models
• Models could be used to design experiments

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Summary conclusion

• Modelling is a key tool for addressing the whole
  range of co-existence issues
• Modelling should take into account the decision
  to be made
• Public decision ? statistical approach
• Individual management ? deterministic approach
  using real data (e.g. landscape and practices)
• Interaction between data collection and modelling
• Models under development are useful for
  conventional innovations