Fuels for the Future

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Fuels for the Future

• Gautam T. Kalghatgi
• Shell Global Solutions, Chester U.K.

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Structure of the talk

• Long term energy supply and demand
• Drivers
• Constraints
• Fuels for future sustainable mobility

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FUELS FOR FUTURE SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
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The 21st Century - Further Growth projectedin
Motorization
Billions of light duty vehicles
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Transport Trends

• Driven by need to control local and,
  increasingly, greenhouse gas emissions.
• In the developing world rapid growth coupled with
  older vehicles and poorer maintenance could make
  local air quality more important
• Changes in engines as well as fuels are needed
• Increasing engine efficiency while
  maintaining/reducing emissions
• Dieselisation but clean diesels Improved
  exhaust treatment technology Hybrid engines
  .Direct injection gasoline engines ..Downsizing
  with turbocharging Homogeneous Charge
  Compression Ignition (HCCI) engines ..

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Why should fuels change?

• Local and global environmental concerns,
  availability, local issues.
• Enable or adapt to new engine technology e.g.
  low sulphur fuels
• Greenhouse gas issues - Renewable Biofuels
• Local environment - Cleaner Hydrocarbon Fuels
  such as GTL diesel (coupled with improvements in
  internal combustion engines). LPG, CNG, Dimethyl
  Ether (DME)
• Changes should be sustainable - fulfil primary
  requirements while reducing local and global
  environmental impact and Should be acceptable to
  consumers

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Conventional Fuels
Alternative fuels will be limited in supply and
will be expensive. Conventional fuels will
constitute a great majority BUT will need to
change to fit with changes in engine
technology Example Sulphur levels will continue
to come down in both gasoline and diesel fuels.
The pace of this change should be driven by the
pace at which new engine technology requiring
such fuels is introduced but will be affected by
legislative inititiatives.
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Bio-Fuels

• Import substitution
• Use for agricultural surpluses
• Bio-waste management
• Greenhouse gas credit Sun fuels
• Current costs are 2-4 times conventional fuels
• CO2 impact depends on how the biofuel is produced
  e.g. lost if virgin land is used to grow crops
  for conversion
• Availability will be limited (6 of total
  transport needs)
• Energy efficiency of production will improve.
  Primarily ethanol 275 litres/ tonne of dry
  plant material.
• Sweden Gasoline 19 M litres/ day average,
  diesel 6 M l/d
• 60-90000 Tonnes of plant material per day (140000
  T/day prod)

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EU Directive on Bio Fuels

• Member states to ensure 2 of transport fuel from
  bio-fuels by 2005, increasing by 0.75 per year
  to 5 in 2009
• From 2009/2010, proposed mandatory 1/1.75
  biofuel blending in gasoline and diesel
• Biofuels comprise bioethanol, biodiesel, biogas,
  biomethanol, bio-DME and bio-oil (Pyrolysis).
• Biofuels can be pure, blends, or derived products
  such as ETBE.
• Separate proposal to allow tax reductions for
  biofuels.

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LPG, LNG, CNG, DME

• Gases at normal temperature require new
  infrastructure for transport and storage
• Significantly cleaner than conventional diesel
  for NOx, particulates. Lower CO2.
• Reduction in power?
• Potential as niche fuels, especially where urban
  air quality is problematic.
• (LPG quality better controlled and less bulky
  storage compared to LNG)
• Perhaps not interesting for this particular
  project

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Gas to Liquid (GTL) Fuels

• Make sense in the current environment if there is
  stranded gas. But there might be other
  scenarios in the future.
• Could also be made from biogas but significant
  challenges.
• Extremely high quality diesel product 75-80
  Cetane, zero sulphur and aromatics, odourless,
  colourless, non-toxic, biodegradable
• Emissions benefit, for pure and blended product,
  well established for existing engine technology.
• Sustainability clear benefits over
  conventional diesel in NOx and SO2, neutral on
  CO2.

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Evaluation of Greenhouse Gas impact with
Well-to-Wheel Analysis

• Systems Approach
• Assessment of energy consumption and greenhouse
  gas emissions

Study sponsored by GM, with involvement of Shell,
BP Exxon Mobil.
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Well-to-Wheel Greenhouse Gases
Renewable/ Electricity
g CO2/mile
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Better
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The Hydrogen Economy some Issues

• PRODUCTION Not an energy source but an energy
  carrier
• Production from natural gas or coal , produces
  CO2
• Electrolysis of water using electricity from
  renewable (at the moment lt 0.5 of total energy
  use) or nuclear (waste disposal, proliferation
  issues). Why convert electricity to H2?
• TRANSPORT and STORAGE Compression and
  liquefaction are very energy intensive (40 of
  energy could be lost). Storage in hydrides and
  carbon nanotubes not fully developed, currently
  not very efficient exothermic (upto 30 energy
  loss) . Extensive infrastructure investment
  needed.

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There is no single future fuels solution
The next 20-30 years will see a wider range of
vehicle technologies and fuel types, especially
in developed markets.
Naphtha fraction of crude oil distillation.
Conventional liquid fuels will continue to
dominate the future market for a long time to come
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Conclusions - 1

• Known oil reserves and production can support a
  demand growth of 2 per annum for the next 20
  years.
• Gas reserves are more uncertain but could support
  3 growth in demand over the next 30 years.
  Unconventional gas could extend this further.
• Serious technical and policy issues concerned
  with production, transport and storage have to be
  tackled before a hydrogen economy is ushered in.
• Increasing resources will have to be deployed in
  developing renewable sources of energy.
• Changes should be sustainable

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Conclusions -2

• Fuels for transport will continue to be largely
  derived from conventional fossil fuels in the
  next twenty years. However these fuels need to
  change e.g. low sulphur.
• Bio-fuels will become increasingly important.
• Cleaner hydrocarbon fuels such as GTL, LPG and
  CNG will all find their niches and play their
  role.
• Bio-fuels and GTL will be limited in supply and
  are best used as blending components rather than
  as pure fuels.