The Greenhouse gas Emission Control Strategies GECS project

1
The Greenhouse gas Emission Control Strategies
(GECS) project

• Work Package 2 WP Multi-gas emission and carbon
  sinks projections, Marginal Abatement Cost
  functions modelling
• Cor Graveland, Lex Bouwman

2
Introduction

• EDGAR Methane and Nitrous oxide available HFCs,
  PFCs and SF6 will follow
• February-September
• -IMAGE-GECS reference scenario
• -Continuation landfills/sewage
• -C sinks

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GECS Reference Scenario

• POLES --gt IMAGE 2.2
• Conversion from 38 to 17 regions
• Several problems, e.g. GDP time series
• Complete IMAGE2.2 model TIMER, TES (Land Cover,
  LU-emissions, C-Cycle, Ocean, Climate)
• Differences in fuel use and C-emissions TIMER vs.
  POLES

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GECS - reference

• Here the GECS Scenario implemented in the IMAGE
  2.2 model was presented. A number of aspects out
  of the Pressure - State - Impact chain were
  explained.
• Here mainly was dealt with the land-use related
  matters.

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Sinks modelling

• GECS reference scenario is the basis
• Land Cover (where, potential area)
• C-Cycle model (how much C/grid cell concept of
  Surplus Potential Productivity (SPP))
• Averaging C sequestration
• Alternatives for storage/use
• Cost calculations

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IMAGE scheme of carbon fluxes
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Surplus Potential Productivity
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Alternative storage/use of sequestered C
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Area, per hectare and total sequestration
-----Costs-------Revenues
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Averaging C stocks after land conversion
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Cost calculations

• Forest establishment costs (initial
  establishment)
• Operation and maintenance costs
• Land costs
• Revenues (negative cost)
• Optional opportunity costs or land rent

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Cost calculation
How levelled Costs/Discount Method?
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Cost calculations, prel. results