150 Jahre ETH Zrich

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EMME - Earthquake Model of the Middle East
region Hazard, Risk Assessment, Economics
Mitigation A project supported by
JTI Domenico Giardini, SED/ETH, Zurich
Mustafa Erdik, KOERI/BU, Istanbul
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UN/IDNDR GSHAP 1992-1999
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VELOCITIES RELATIVE TO EURASIA
Reilinger et al., 2006
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(No Transcript)
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PARTICIPANTS
Turkey Cyprus Lebanon Syria Jordan Iraq
(?) Iran Pakistan Afghanistan (?) Azerbaijan Armen
ia Georgia
With additional resources, other countries in the
Region will be invited to join
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• OVERALL GOALS (Similar to GEM)
• Calculate earthquake hazard uniformly and with
  the highest standard
• Validate earthquake and shaking probabilities
  using regional and global data
• Communicate earthquake risk clearly, accurately,
  and transparently
• Integrate local expertise in a regional and
  global context
• Monitor and update changing infrastructure and
  vulnerability
• Build capacity in the whole region
• Dialogue with decision-makers
• Implement EMME as part of the GEM Project
• EMME will enable users to take specific actions
  for risk mitigation
• Improved earthquake preparation and response
• Adoption and enforcement of building codes
• Seismic mitigation measures
• Accurate post-earthquake assessment of direct and
  indirect losses
• Increased insurance usage
• Uniform comparability of earthquake risk across
  multiple geographies

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EMME Architecture (Similar to GEM)
ECONOMICS

• Probability of direct
• financial loss

HAZARD
RISK

• Building
• inventories
• Vulnerabilities
• Probability of damage
• Probability of
• loss of lives

• Probability of
• earthquake
• occurrence

• Probability of indirect financial loss

• Probability of
• ground motion

Earthquake probabilities Building Codes
Earthquake impact User awareness of risk
Financial tools Market transactions
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EMME Implementation Plan

• List of participants
• Working Groups
• Project workflow
• Schedule of all activities
• Governance
• Consortium agreement
• Meetings
• Project efforts
• Budget allocations

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EMME Implementation Plan

• Working Groups
• WG1 Earthquake catalogue IIEES - Iran
• WG2 Source Zones Sakarya Univ.- Turkey
• WG3 GMPE METU - Turkey
• WG4 Risk Assessment CUT - Cyprus
• WG5 City Scenarios Yarmouk Univ. - Jordan
• WG6 Socio-economic Impacts NDME/PIDE Pakistan
• Other activities (To be coordinated by ETHZ and
  KOERI)
• Computational Framework
• Model building
• Training and dissemination
• Management

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EMME Implementation Plan

• URBAN EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENTS
• Best-practice cities
• Istanbul, Tehran, Amman
• Candidate new cities
• Karachi, Mashad, Beirut, Damascus/Aleppo, Shiraz,
  Suleimanie (?)
• Nicosia, Lahore, Baku, Zarqa, Tbilisi, Yerevan,
  Kabul (?)

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EMME Implementation Plan
Connection/Coordination with other Projects GEM1,
GEM, SHARE, Central Asia Regional Project, India
Regional Project, Africa Regional
Project Performance evaluation The successful
implementation of the project will be measured by
the implementation of the Workplan and the timely
completion of milestones and deliverables. Open
access policy The software, databases and
products generated in EMME will be freely
available following an open access policy. All
participating institutions will have equal access
rights to the tools and data produced by the
project.
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GOVERNANCE Consortium EMME will count on the
support and engagement of key institutions in the
region. These institutions form the EMME
Consortium. Roles and obligations of the
Consortium and the whole implementation will be
regulated by a Consortium Agreement.
Directors EMME will be jointly coordinated and
directed by SED/ETH Zurich and KOERI/BU
Istanbul. Steering Committee The Steering
Committee will be composed by senior
representatives of the Consortium partners, a
representative of the Asian Seismological
Commission, a representative from India and the
sponsor. A Steering Committees role will be
providing overall guidance, ensuring contractual
obligations and quality control. Management
Committee Will be composed of WG coordinators
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• General Outputs/Deliverables
• Harmonized input for building codes and insurance
  applications
• Hazard and risk tools to be used by seismological
  agencies and risk professionals
• A distributed, homogeneous IT infrastructure
• Products and applications (including the
  development of an intuitive, web-based interface)
  suitable for public use.
• An online tool with a graphical user interface,
  to allow users to specify and vary modular inputs
  and outputs to suit multiple purposes
• Documentation and reports
• Strategy for risk and risk mitigation
  communication to authorities and public

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EMME Implementation Plan
TIMELINE April 1, 2009 Completion of the
planning phase and start of the EMME May 26-28,
2009 EMME coordination meeting (Istanbul) Month
3-7 Setting-up Web Page, Preparation of
Implementation Plan, Consortium Agreements, WG
Activities Month 8 EMME General Meeting
(Iran) Month 12 Selection of City Scenarios (WG
Work, Model Building, City Scenarios) Month 23
Mid-Term Meeting (March, 2011, Amman) (Model
Applications and refinement, City Scenarios,
Socio-economic Impacts) Month 47 Final Meeting
(March, 2013, Islamabad) Month 48 EMME completed
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• Comments from the Regional Initiative Meeting
• EMME should place emphasis on Engineering
  related components.
• EMME should pay more attention to training
  issues.
• The rigorous earthquake hazard assessment (Time
  independent and dependent) conducted along the
  Dead Sea Fault by GFZ-Potsdam and related
  regional countries will be available.
• The possible overlaps and duplication in some of
  the activities (e.g. Earthquake Catalogues,
  Source Zones, GMPEs) in EMME with similar
  activities in GEM and SHARE should be avoided
  through close coordination/cooperation.

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Thank You
www.emme-gem.org