Modelling problems and the HarmoniQuA approach

1
Modelling problems and the HarmoniQuA approach
Presenter affiliation name - country
2
Index

• Problems to be solved
• Existing approaches
• HarmoniQuA approach
• Problems solved, problems not solved
• Conclusion

3
Problems to be solved

• Problems with
• Terminology
• Malpractice
• Data
• Process knowledge
• Miscommunication
• Distorted transformation of model results into
  decision making
• Documentation and transparency of modelling
  process
• Neglect of sociological, economic and political
  issues

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Terminology

• Ambiguous terminology
• A lack of mutual understanding between
  key-players
• Modellers
• Water Managers
• Auditors
• Stakeholders
• (concerned members of the) Public
• Different backgrounds in multidisciplinary
  projects

5
Malpractice

• Careless handling of input data
• Inadequate model set-up
• Insufficient calibration and validation
• Inadequate consideration of uncertainty
• Models used beyond their scope

6
Data

• Lack of data
• Poor quality of available data
• Inadequate documentation of data sources and
  quality

7
Process knowledge

• Insufficient knowledge of some processes
  hindering
• Biota modelling
• Socio-economic modelling
• Unknown quality of some process knowledge

8
Miscommunication

• Miscommunication
• from the modeller to the end-user
• on the possibilities and limitations of the
  modelling project and
• Overselling model capabilities

9
Modelling and decision making

• Confusion on how to use model results in decision
  making
• Credibility of modelling
• Discarding the uncertainty in model outcomes
• Overestimating the authority of a model
• Being unaware of the representation power of the
  used type of modelling for the problem at hand
  is the modelling approach capable of solving the
  problem

10
Transparency of modelling process

• Lack of documentation
• Lack of transparency of the modelling process
• Projects that cannot be fully audited
• Projects that cannot be reconstructed

11
Socio-economic and political issues

• Insufficient consideration of economic,
  institutional and political issues
• Lack of integrated modelling integrated
  modelling includes
• All required domains
• Socio-economics
• No attention for political implications and
  consequences

12
Existing approaches

• Existing guidelines
• Good Modelling Practice Handbook - Netherlands
  Van Waveren et al., 2000, Scholten et al., 2001
• Murray-Darling groundwater flow
  modelling,Australia Middlemis, 2000
• Bay-Delta modelling protocol for water and
  environmental modelling in Californian BDMF,
  2000

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HarmoniQuA approach (1)

• Quality Assurance similar to that in software
  engineering
• Capability Maturity Model (Humphrey 1989)
• Simulation Maturity Model (Scholten Udink ten
  Cate, 1995, 1999)
• Stages for modelling teams / organisations
• ad hoc
• repeatable
• defined
• managed
• optimised
• Defining modelling process ? guidelines (in
  knowledge base)
• Supporting modelling ? MoST ? managing modelling
  process

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HarmoniQuA approach (2)

• WP1
• Decompose the modelling process into steps, tasks
  and activities
• Define each explicitly glossary of terms
  ?knowledge base
• knowledge base ?guidelines
• WP2
• Design and development of ontological knowledge
  base
• Design and development of Modelling Support Tool
  (MoST)
• WP3
• Testing 2 series of 10 test cases single
  domain, multi-domain, integrated
• WP4
• Dissemination, exploitation, training

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Organisation of work
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Problems not solved / solved

• Not solved (and not aimed to solve)
• Model code selection (see BMW project
  http//www.ymparisto.fi/)
• Coupling of models (see HarmonIT project
  http//www.harmonit.org/)
• Distributed models
• Use of model solvers from other modelling domains
• Problems of scaling (time / space)
• ..
• Solved
• Reproducibility of model projects
• Auditing
• Transparency
• Etc.

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Conclusion

• Despite the modelling expertise, many
  shortcomings and problems related with modelling
• WFD asks for integrated studies in which
• models are required
• socio-economic issues are important
• stakeholder and public participation is necessary
• HarmoniQuA
• provides guidance on how to model ?guidelines
• support of modelling process in projects ? MoST